Commentary for Friday, September 4th, 2026 – Today gold closed down $61.90 at $4429.80, and silver closed down $0.92 at $66.05. It is always difficult to know when a break to the upside or downside is in the making for gold. If it were easy, the break would not be surprising. And it might be too soon to say that recent testing of overhead resistance at $4500.00 is a busted flush. But it has turned into a disappointing trade given that gold finished up $125.30 yesterday. It is not exactly the end of the world that gold tested support around $4368.00 this morning, but it is not exactly what the bulls were looking for going into the long Labor Day weekend. Still insiders believe that safe haven demand will continue to be supported by the intractable war between the US and Iran. Across our trading desk this latest dip has prompted little if any selling, the public waiting to get a better feel for this trade after the holiday weekend. Last Friday gold closed at $4458.60, and silver closed at $66.48. On the week gold was down $28.80, and silver was down $0.43.
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On Monday (8/31/26) the price of gold tested support ($4420.00) on one occasion in the morning trade, managed to recover and test overhead resistance ($4460.00). But traders also sold this rally and gold finished the day mildly in the red. This pricing pattern suggests that higher interest rates will stimy higher gold prices and traders will be looking carefully for support around $4500.00. Still, I don’t see the price of gold falling out of bed because the outcome of who controls the Strait of Hormuz is still up in the air and rising crude oil prices eventually lead to higher inflation. Finally, as the US strikes Iran for the first time in weeks and Trump vows to hit Iran hard attempting to break this stalemate, fresh safe haven demand should return.
FXEmpire (Christoher Lewis) – $4,510 Support Faces a Critical Test – Gold tests key $4,510 support after Monday’s gap lower. Technical analysis examines the rebound attempt as US interest rates and the dollar drive volatility. Technical Analysis – The gold market gapped lower to kick off the trading session on Monday, fell somewhat, and then turned around to show signs of life. This is a relatively decent sign considering how ugly Friday ended up being, and it does look like we are trying to turn around at an area that’s been important in the past, but whether or not we actually can remains to be seen. The cluster right around $4,510 so far has supported the market. Interest rates have drifted a little bit lower, and therefore it does give the appearance of a market that may be rethinking some of the action on Friday. But at the same time, we are lower than where we started, so we do have to keep in mind that there are a lot of moving pieces at the moment, and therefore a lot of things to watch. Technical Support and Interest Rate Pressures – From a technical analysis standpoint, this is pretty much where we would want to see the market try to fight back in this area, and so far, it has. However, there is a lot of noise in the market at the moment, and that probably won’t change soon. The gold market is going to be heavily influenced by US interest rates. They have drifted a little bit lower so far for the session; we’ll have to wait and see how that plays out. And of course, the US dollar, as it is priced in US dollars, has a certain amount of influence here as well. We’re right here at a support area where there has been a lot of action previously. We’ll just have to wait and see on Monday if this actually supports the market. Silver Price Forecast: $70 in Focus After 200-Day EMA Bounce – Silver rebounds from its 200-day EMA as traders watch the $70 barrier. Technical analysis highlights breakout potential and downside risk toward $60. Technical Analysis – The silver market fell pretty significantly right off the bat on Monday but has turned around as we bounced basically from the 200-day EMA. The question now will be whether or not we are actually seeing some type of an attempt to turn things around or are we just simply going back and forth trying to get a read on whether or not market participants are going to continue to be bearish like they were during the Friday session after Kevin Warsh basically stated that the Federal Reserve very well could end up hiking in the future, certainly aren’t cutting. That really rocked the markets and sent interest rates in America higher, and silver does tend to be sensitive to interest rates. We’ll just have to wait and see how it plays out. Technical Levels and Market Drivers – Bouncing from the 200-day EMA will give solace to technical traders, and therefore it’s probably worth watching this area. But as things stand right now, this is a market that is at a major point of inflection, the $70 region. And if we can get back above there, I would suggest that perhaps that’s very positive. Breaking the top of the Friday candlestick most certainly would attract a lot of attention from traders, and more likely than not be willing to perhaps step on the gas, a little bit of FOMO trading at that point. To the downside, if we were to see a breakdown below the 50-day EMA, the $60 level could find itself targeted, as it’s basically where we’ve spent the entire month of July. Silver is in high demand longer term, and therefore I do like it as an investment, but short-term trading is a bit of a different beast. With the interest rate situation in the United States being in play, and of course the US dollar all over the place, and inflation via the war in the Middle East, there are a lot of things going on right now that continue to make the markets choppy, and silver won’t be any different.
On the day gold closed down $27.50 at $4431.10, and silver closed down $0.26 at $66.22.
On Tuesday (9/1/26) the price of gold dipped heavily to the downside in the early morning trade, testing support at $4320.00, reacting to US Fed Chairman’s latest bearish comments on interest rates as gold dropped below its 200 Day Moving Average. So, the bulls are off to a bad start, suggesting that lower gold prices may be in the making. At the same time geopolitical tension continues to rise in the Middle East which should support the price of gold to some degree. And may even spark fresh safe haven demand if Trump cannot persuade a belligerent Iran to seek a more secure and safer path to political equality without nuclear weapons. As usual, this significant drop in the price of gold has stalled the bullion market. The public is sidelined.
Reuters (Dharna Bafna) – Gold falls to two-week low as rising Treasury yields, dollar weigh – Gold dropped more than 2% on Tuesday to a two-week low as elevated Treasury yields and a stronger U.S. dollar weighed on prices, while bullion’s break below its 200-day moving average triggered additional technical selling. Spot gold was down 2% at $4,360.39 per ounce at 09:58 a.m. ET (1358 GMT), after touching its lowest since August 19 at $4,362.89 earlier in the session. Bullion dropped below its 200-day moving average, which is currently at around $4,528, on August 28. U.S. gold futures fell 1.6% to $4,409.30. “We’re seeing some technical selling pressure… bond yields globally are at highs not seen in years. So that’s all working to pressure the gold market,” said Jim Wyckoff (Kitco). “Gold price has dropped below its 200-day moving average, which is an important technical signal.” U.S. Treasury yields rose to their highest since January 2025 on Tuesday as rising tensions in the Middle East stoked inflation fears and triggered a global bond selloff. Although gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation, rising interest rates and higher yields on Treasuries typically pressure gold as they raise the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. The dollar also gained, making greenback-priced gold more expensive to overseas buyers. Gold hit a more than three-month high last week before sliding over 3% on Friday, after U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh warned of having more “work to do” if inflation does not cool down to the central bank’s 2% target. Traders added to bets on a September rate hike after Warsh’s comments. Traders now see a 66% chance of a rate hike this month, CME’s FedWatch Tool showed. Investors are looking ahead to the ADP employment report on Wednesday and non-farm payrolls data on Friday for fresh clues on economic policy. “The path of least resistance now is probably sideways or sideways to lower in the gold market over the near term. Same goes for silver,” Wyckoff added. Spot silver slid 2.3% to $64.99 an ounce. Platinum fell 1.4% to $1,766.66 and palladium lost 1.6% to $1,334.88.
On the day gold closed down $83.10 at $4348.00, and silver closed down $1.60 at $64.62.
On Wednesday (9/2/26) the price of gold stumbled a bit on the open but quickly jumped to session highs of $4389.00, a nice technical plus but I would not get too carried away because interest rates will likely remain unchanged or perhaps move a bit higher over time. This conjecture however is opposed by the rumor that the Fed will be forced to lower interest rates before the end of the year if the economy slows. I don’t buy this bullish argument because inflation remains a problem and may get worse given the rise in crude oil prices. Ernest Hoffman (Kitco) notes that the Bank of Canada said the conflict in the Middle East keeps energy prices high. “As well, new US tariffs and Canadian countermeasures have been announced following the breakdown of trade talks between Canada and the United States,” Finally the war between Iran and the US is heating up, both sides are again firing on each other. Still, with all this going on gold only finished mildly higher on the day. In my mind this suggests that even with renewed fireworks fresh records in gold prices will likely take a back seat to firm interest rates.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Price Holds 200-Day EMA Ahead of Key Jobs Report – Gold defends its crucial 200-day EMA as traders weigh elevated US rates and Friday’s jobs report, which could trigger the next major price move. Technical Analysis – The gold market found itself to be a little bit interesting during the session as we fell towards the 200-day EMA only to bounce. This is an area that technical traders will be watching, as it is such a big technical indicator. This is going to be an interesting market to watch during the session as interest rates, of course, are elevated in America, and the jobs number coming out on Friday could have a major part to play as to where we go next. After all, traders will continue to question what the Fed may or may not do, and with that, it will have a major influence on gold. This is probably the whole story at the moment, and traders are trying to get a grip on what happens next through that prism. Technical Outlook and Key Moving Averages – Bouncing from the 200-day EMA is a strong sign from a technical analysis standpoint, so it has that going for it. A breakdown below the 200-day EMA would be a weak sign from a technical analysis standpoint. So, we’ll have to see how that plays out, but I’m watching this very closely. Ultimately, we’re trying to decide whether or not the Federal Reserve is going to continue to tighten or if it’s going to be a situation where the Federal Reserve gets a little bit of cover from a weak jobs number. The next couple of days will potentially be somewhat neutral, but once we get the jobs report, this market could see a lot of volatility, depending on what the numbers look like. Silver Price Bounces from $65 as Bulls Eye $70 Resistance – Silver rebounds from its 50-day EMA and $65 support as rates ease, but $70 resistance and Friday’s jobs report could determine the next price move. Technical Analysis – The silver market is trying to bounce from the crucial 50-day EMA and the $65 level following the path that gold has set out for the day, as interest rates, although elevated, are drifting a little bit. This continues to be a major factor in this market, as the silver markets tend to be sensitive to rates and the USD, and traders are trying to find value here and are more willing to buy short-term dips. The $70 level above is significant resistance, but I would warn you that Friday is the jobs report, and that could have a major influence on where we go next. After all, expectations of interest rate moves are one of the biggest drivers of metals most of the time. Technical Outlook and Key Silver Levels – The US dollar shrinking helps as well, so pay attention to that. But ultimately, we’re sitting right here at an area where you would expect a certain amount of support anyway, so it’s not a huge surprise. Whether or not we get momentum, that’s a completely different question. But clearly, it looks like the selling has at least abated for the short term, and this is the first step in trying to turn things around. Hesitation is a word I could use and Friday’s jobs number will loom large here. If we get an extraordinarily weak jobs number, traders may start to try to price in the idea that the Federal Reserve may not be able to tighten any further. If that’s the case, things could get interesting here.
On the day gold closed up 18.30 at $4366.30, and silver closed up $0.10 at $64.72.
On Thursday (9/3/26) – Today the price of gold traded within a tight range in the early morning but quickly made daily highs at $4485.00. Reacting to a softer dollar and a jump in safe haven demand as tension continues to rise in the Middle East. These higher prices are significant, however considering Fed Chair Kevin Warsh warning that the FOMC may raise interest rates this month. But for now, fresh safe haven demand created because of an escalation in the war between Iran and the US takes center stage. And higher interest rates move to the back burner. Investors should however remember that these recent changes in the geopolitical situation and inflation are flash points which may or may not spur higher prices in gold and silver in the short to medium term. It is also difficult to say, especially when dealing with Iran just who is pitching or batting as our English friends are found of asking. It does make sense to buckle your seatbelts.
Reuters (Sukanya Mitra) – Gold advances on softer US dollar, bond yields ahead of payrolls report – Gold extended gains on Thursday, buoyed by a drop in the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields from highs, as investors awaited key payrolls data that could tip the scales on expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike this month. Spot gold was up 1.2% at $4,440.87 per ounce by 1217 GMT, while U.S. gold futures rose 1.7% to $4,487.70. Bullion slipped to its lowest level since August 7 on Wednesday before settling more than 1% higher as the U.S. dollar index retreated from a nearly three-week peak, while Treasury yields eased from multi-year highs. “Modestly weaker dollar, and slightly lower U.S. rates are helping gold. With the Fed currently offering no forward guidance, gold remains highly sensitive to shifts in market expectations for the September meeting,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Traders are pricing in an about 60% chance of an interest rate hike at the Fed’s policy meeting later this month, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Rate hike bets increased after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh last week signaled that the central bank may need to hike rates if above-target inflation persists. Although gold is typically seen as an inflation hedge, higher interest rates tend to diminish non-yielding bullion’s appeal. Investors now await the closely watched non-farm payrolls report due on Friday after the ADP employment report on Wednesday showed U.S. private payrolls increased moderately in August. “The payrolls report will probably be the biggest defining moment of the week. If the jobs report misses expectations, and September rate hike bets decline, that could see gold move higher,” said Ilya Spivak, head of global macro at Tastylive. Spot silver gained 0.5% to $65.63, platinum rose 0.4% to $1,766.19 and palladium climbed 1.3% to $1,362.37.
On the day gold closed up $125.40 at $4491.70, and silver closed up $2.25 at $66.97.
On Friday (9/4/26) the price of gold tested support ($4368.00) this morning but managed to recover half the loss by the close, which is a plus in a confusing market. In my mind, given the deep divide and rising Middle East tension over the Strait of Hormuz it is hard to believe that gold is struggling with overhead resistance, but that is the story. Safe haven demand will take a back seat to higher interest rates for the time being. Trump told the Fed to slash interest rates or he will end trade with countries with US surpluses (CNBC). A surprising comment as he climbs further out on a hazardous geopolitical limb. I would not make too much of this latest pricing data as gold tests its 50 Day Moving Average ($4250.00). Traders use this technical insight to mostly judge short term pricing patterns. Enjoy the long weekend and thanks for reading.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Tests 50-Day EMA as Strong US Jobs Data Lifts Rates – Gold tests its 50-day EMA after strong US jobs data lifts rates. The longer-term outlook stays constructive, but higher rates remain a key risk. Technical Analysis – The gold market initially tried to continue its elevated behavior, but the jobs market in the United States continues to be robust. We have had a print of 162,000 jobs added, and that sent rates higher. They have since calmed down a little bit, but the gold market has faced some damage as a result. Monday is a holiday, and therefore, the trading hours in the futures market might be a little busted up. We’ll have to look at the calendar, but it does tend to cause some problems with liquidity. Sometime early in the afternoon, just after noon, the United States markets will close, so be aware of that. 50-Day EMA Support and Labor Day Liquidity – The market right now finds itself just above the crucial 50-day EMA, and whether or not that holds as support, we’ll have to wait and see. My suspicion is there is probably somewhat of a lack of volume in the US right now anyways. It’s not uncommon for people to take 4-day holidays for Labor Day weekend, so couple that with a jobs number that caught everybody off guard, it wouldn’t surprise me to see a real reaction on Monday, heading into Tuesday once traders come back to work in the Asian session, and then probably build up a little bit as we go into New York on Tuesday. As things stand right now, not much has changed. We’re just in the same consolidation we were in just a couple of weeks ago. Longer term, I still like gold, but I recognize that higher rates for longer is a recipe for trouble. Silver Tests 200-Day EMA as Strong US Jobs Data Lifts Yields – Silver tests its 200-day EMA after strong US jobs data drives yields higher. See why the selloff has not yet caused major technical damage. Technical Analysis – The silver market has fallen pretty significantly during the trading session on Friday as the jobs number came out well over anticipated results. The expected number was right around 55,000 jobs added last month in America, ended up being 162,000, a huge miss, and to the upside. So that has traders worried about the potential of inflation, higher interest rates coming out of the Federal Reserve, and that typically is bad for silver. That explains part of what we’re seeing here. Moving Average Support and Labor Day Volatility – Ultimately though, it’s a market that is still well within the range of normalcy right around the 200-day EMA, as well as the 50-day EMA. So, as poor as the reaction was initially, at least so far, it doesn’t seem to be irreversible damage. Friday is Labor Day in the United States, so keep in mind futures markets close right around 1:00 p.m. or maybe noon, depending on where you’re at in the US. The markets will probably have a lack of volume. I think we’ll start to get real price action late Monday night in America as Asian traders wake up and US junior traders start to take on the desks. Ultimately, by the end of Tuesday, we should have the actual response to this. But so far, higher interest rates are bad for silver, as we would expect. If rates come back down, that could change some things as well. But all in all, it has held up fairly well considering what it could have been.
On the day gold closed down $61.90 at $4429.80, and silver closed down $0.92 at $66.05.
Platinum closed down $7.40 at $1821.00, and palladium closed down $35.80 at $1390.10.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,422.00 resistance level, with a sustained move targeting $4,465.00 and then $4,487.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,304.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,263.00 and then $4,221.00. First resistance is seen at $4,422.00 and then at $4,465.00. First support is seen at $4,304.00 and then at $4,263.00. Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $67.21, with a move above that level targeting $68.74 and then $70.76. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $65.26, with deeper downside targets at $63.80 and then $62.57. First resistance is seen at $67.21 and then at $68.74. Next support is seen at $65.26 and then at $63.80.
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