Commentary for Friday, Feb 28, 2025 – Today gold closed down $46.40 at $2836.80, and silver closed down $0.58 at $31.22. Gold closed down two days this week, and both dips were relatively large. This weakness is not surprising considering the trade has been testing $3000.00 overhead resistance and the process has proved to be lacking. And gold’s dip to recent trading lows today ($2830.00) should have been expected, just look at the strength of the dollar. The Dollar Index moved from 106.0 to 107.5 this past week. Today’s selloff is described by one technical expert as “More profit taking and weak long liquidation from the shorter-term futures traders are featured late this week”, which makes sense. But most physical bullion holders should keep in mind that the primary drivers which produced record prices are still in place. Inflation is not moving lower, and the Fed is talking about two quarter point interest rate cuts, one in the summer months and one in November. You could argue that too much is being made of this latest weakness. But what has me worried is how fast the bullish sentiment has turned bearish in one week. Especially as President Trump continues to beat the tariff drum. Last Friday gold closed at $2937.60 / silver at $32.98. On the week gold was lower by $100.80, and silver was lower by $1.76.
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On Monday gold rose to a high in the early trade of $2955.00 then dipped to session lows of $2935.00 and finally finished the day mildly in the green ($2947.00). The good bullish news is that traders are still working on that prized “break to the upside” which will confirm $3000.00 gold for those patiently waiting. The bad news is that this landmark number, while encouraged by the technical picture, has turned out to be a tough ride. This perhaps lack of enthusiasm might suggest that we are looking at a tired bull and profit taking might become more pronounced.
The current price range of silver ($32.00/$33.00), in my mind, is being dragged along and represents a greater downside risk because of leveraged futures markets. Still, the overall picture is encouraging, especially in the longer term for both silver and gold. The continued “back and forth” pricing patterns relate generally to higher prices if the dips are followed by recovery, meaning traders see value in the current trading range but this market could turn tenuous.
I would suggest that the physical market investor look at the longer term and treat their bullion as a kind of “savings account” which can always be turned into cash money in case of emergency. Finally, the world may indeed be going through upheaval which may continue to influence the trading game for decades, but the ride could be bumpy. But my primary case for owning gold and silver bullion in your own possession, outside banking and governmental controls, remains unchanged, because identifying your friends from your enemies is getting more difficult.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Look Very Strong – “The gold market continues to look very strong on Monday, as the market is testing the all-time highs at the open of the “open pit” futures session. Technical Analysis – Gold markets initially pulled back just a bit in the early hours on Monday, only to turn around and show signs of strength again. By doing so, it shows just how bullish and positive this market is overall, and I do think it’s probably going to break out to the upside. If and when it does, I see nothing stopping gold from reaching the $3,000 level eventually, but I’m also the first person to say that it will probably be quite noisy on the way up. With that being the case, I am pretty bullish, and I look at dips as potential buying opportunities. The $2,900 level should continue to be important, just as the $2,800 level should be as well. The $2,800 level, I believe, is the floor in the market, if you will, with the 50-day EMA sitting right there and the fact that it was previous resistance. So, there should be a certain amount of market memory hanging around there. Keep in mind that there are plenty of things right now to push the gold market higher, not the least of which would be geopolitical concerns and worries about tariffs. After all, that really hasn’t gone anywhere. We haven’t seen any enacted, but to think that they won’t be wishful thinking. So, I think a lot of traders out there are willing to put a little bit of gold in their portfolio in order to protect wealth from not only geopolitical events but just market risk in general. So, I remain bullish. Silver Continues to Grind Higher Overall – The Monday session has seen a bit of buying in the silver markets, as we continue to see a lot of overall buying in this market. However, you will need to be cautious with your position size. Technical Analysis – The silver market has found the $32.35 level as support during the early hours on Monday. And it looks like we are turning around to perhaps take off to the upside. All things being equal, if we can rally from here, the $33.33 level is an area that I think if we can break above there, then the market could go looking to the $35 level. Short-term pullbacks at this point in time continue to see plenty of buying pressure all the way down to at least the $31 level from what I can see. The 50 day EMA is between here and there. And therefore, I think it also comes into the picture as potential support as well. That being said, if the gold market continues to rally the way it has, I do think it will drag silver higher with it eventually. Silver is not gold, though, and silver has other things going forward that it has to think about, such as industrial usage. Keep in mind, there are a lot of concerns about tariffs and the like over there in the markets, so with that being the case, they really have to wonder about demand. Nonetheless, I do think when you look at the longer-term trajectory, it’s in an uptrend. There’s really no doubting that. So, I am a buyer of dips, but I would do so in small positions because silver gets extraordinarily volatile and can be dangerous if you’re over-levered.”
On the day gold closed up $10.30 at $2947.90, and silver closed down $0.40 at $32.58.
On Tuesday the price of gold only held up in the early trade for a short time before quickly moving lower, testing support at $2905.00. Investors are now faced with a dilemma – because the drop was large enough to get everyone’s attention. Is this latest bearish news a profit taking round or is there something more ominous at work? Still too early to pin this down but caution is required even if you are a longer term player. Professionals seem to view today’s pricing pattern as no big deal after making all-time highs on Monday. But the drop is perplexing because last night Reuters claimed that the Fed was likely to reduce interest rates by a quarter point in June and another quarter point in October to avoid fears of recession. I would not take $3000.00 gold off the table this year, but more patience is needed, and more volatility is expected.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold falls as investors cash in, trade war fears persist – “Gold prices eased on Tuesday as investors booked profits after a record high in the previous session, with ongoing fears of a trade war and instability driven by U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff plans still fueling safe-haven flows. Spot gold fell 0.6% to $2,934.99 an ounce as of 09:55 a.m. (1455 GMT), after reaching $2,956.15 on Monday. U.S. gold futures declined 0.5% to $2,948.60. “We still believe the sideways to higher trend is intact. We’re really viewing this as nothing more (than) fairly typical little profit-taking,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Safe-haven gold has hit eleven record highs this year so far, surpassing the significant $2,950/oz milestone. Trump said on Monday that tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports were “on time and on schedule” despite efforts by the countries to beef up border security and halt the flow of fentanyl into the U.S. ahead of a March 4 deadline. Gold speculators cut net long positions by 13,605 contracts to 201,962 in the week to February 18, while SPDR Gold Trust holdings rose to 904.38 metric tons on Friday, the highest since August 2023. Meanwhile, investors and economists expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to respond “strongly and systematically” to changes in inflation and the labor market, according to research published on Monday by the San Francisco Fed. Higher inflation may force the Fed to keep rates higher, tarnishing non-yielding gold’s appeal. Investors now await Friday’s release of the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures report, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, for insights into the central bank’s rate-easing path and monetary policy. Spot silver shed 1.2% to $31.96 an ounce, platinum dropped 0.8% to $959.35, and palladium lost 0.8% to $932.50.”
On the day gold closed down $43.40 at $2904.50, and silver closed down $0.78 at $31.80.
On Wednesday the price of gold opened steadily considering yesterday’s weakness but again tested support by moving to lows on the day of $2890.00. That’s the bad news, meaning it may not be the end of the current weakness. The good news is that traders bought today’s dip which pushed prices back into the $2916.00 range and gold closed mildly in the green for the day. This may be the first step in stabilization as investors find value in the current pricing. Which is great news because it happened today which is an early response. This may indicate that the worst is over, and gold will stabilize at the upper end of this range. If this is not the case, investors will still have time to prepare for the next step in this volatile roller coaster ride.
Reuters (Anmol Choubey) – Gold prices slip, investors eye upcoming US PCE data – “Gold prices eased on Wednesday after a recent record rally, while investors looked towards inflation data due later this week and the latest developments on President Donald Trump’s tariff plans. Spot gold fell 0.7% to $2,894.55 an ounce as of 09:44 a.m. ET (1444 GMT). Bullion, a preferred hedge against uncertainty and inflation, hit a record high of $2,956.15 on Monday amid trade war concerns emerging from tariff threats. U.S. gold futures fell 0.4% to $2,908.10. On Tuesday, Trump ordered a probe into potential new tariffs on copper imports to rebuild U.S. production of a metal critical to electric vehicles, military hardware, the power grid and many consumer goods. “Bullish trend is still in place… We are not surprised by a period of consolidation ahead of some piece of important data,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Investors’ focus was also on the U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, due on Friday. Higher than expected inflation could delay further rate cuts, which is priced in; gold is one of the quintessential hedges against those inflationary pressures, so it should gain more, Meger added. The U.S. central bank reduced the interest rate three times in the previous year, amounting to a total cut of 75 basis points. Money markets are currently pricing 54 bps of Fed rate cuts IRPR by the year-end, which implies two 25 bps easing moves and an around 20% chance of an additional cut. “Central bank behavior will be key to gold’s fortunes, as they have been an important element for demand in recent years,” Frank Watson, market analyst at Kinesis Money, said in a note. Spot silver was down 0.5% to $31.57, platinum eased 0.4% to $963, and palladium dropped 0.4% to $924.01.”
On the day gold closed up $12.30 at $2916.80, and silver closed up $0.45 at $32.25.
On Thursday the price of gold continued lower so commentators will be looking downward not upward meaning short term support becomes more important. It approached $2870.00 before recovering, finishing the day at $2883.20. Only time will tell if that small move to the upside will turn out to be significant. Not good but not the end of the world, as you see further momentum selling from yesterday. This means the decline will likely be deeper than expected, a sour grape considering most were looking for $3000.00 gold last week.
Now traders may consider gold’s 50 day moving average which is $2790.00. The 50 day moving average is rarely considered but sometimes useful in considering a steeper and therefore more volatile decline in the short term. Investors should be watchful of this latest drop but not particularly worried as insiders believe that gold is generally trending higher in the longer term. The optimist with conviction would look at these numbers and see an opportunity to bargain hunt. The pessimist might be hiding under the bed. Whether paper traders step up and buy weakness or wait for this market to cool down remains to be seen. My bet, they will wait.
FXEmpire (Christoher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Look Rangebound – “The gold market fell hard in the early hours of Thursday, as the markets continued to look very rangebound overall. At this point, gold continue to look very much a “buy on the dip” scenario. Technical Analysis – Gold markets have fallen a bit during the trading session early Thursday morning, but we are approaching an area that is in fact supported as we have seen over the last couple of weeks. So I do think it’s very likely that we could see a bit of interest in gold here. Whether or not we can bounce enough to break back above the $2,900 level is the question. And if we do, then I think we just go back towards the top of the range near $2,950 or so. Anything above opens up the possibility of a move to the $3,000 level. That being said, if we were to break down below the $2,870 level, then we might have a little bit of a deeper correction, perhaps down to the 50-day EMA and the $2,800 level. This, of course, is an area that is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and a lot of people would be paying close attention to it. The 50-day EMA being there, of course, lends more credence, but it’s also worth noting that it was a major swing in late October of last year, and therefore I think a lot of people will be paying attention to that region, perhaps trying to pick up cheap ounces. All things being equal, this is a market that I do like still, and I do think that there are plenty of global shocks out there that could come into the picture that people will be watching. Ultimately, this market is one that does tend to be very noisy. But we are very much in an uptrend, and that is going to continue to be the way going forward. So, with that, I think dips continue to offer buying opportunities. Silver Continues to Look for a Bounce – The silver market looks like it is trying to turn things around, as we are bouncing again on the Thursday session, after what had been a soft market earlier in the week. Technical Analysis – The silver market initially pulled back a bit during the trading session on Thursday but has seen buyers jump into the market as the 50-day EMA has offered technical support for the third day in a row. Ultimately, this is a market that is bullish, but you also have to keep in mind that silver is a very noisy market to say the least, and therefore you have to be very cautious with your position size. During the day, the Tuesday trading session, we saw a significant sell off, but now it looks like we are trying to reverse that fear and push the market towards the $32.35 level, which is the top of that candlestick. If we can, then the market will challenge a significant previous resistance barrier that it did overcome about a week and a half ago. So, we’ll see whether or not there are still selling contracts sitting at that level. If we do break above there, then the $33.50 area is a region that I would watch which breaking that opens up the possibility of a move to the $35 level. On a pullback from here, if we break down below the 50 day EMA, then the $31.00 level is an area that I would be paying close attention to. As it had previously offered resistance, it should offer support now. Either way, this is a market that I think you need to keep your position size reasonable because there are a lot of concerns out there about the global growth scenario, and of course, whether or not tariffs will in fact be enacted. That being said, Donald Trump did push back tariffs to Mexico and Canada by a month yesterday, flinching essentially. So, the question now is, will the market even take that seriously? With this being the case, I think silver remains bullish. But again, it is going to be very volatile as it’s not just a precious metal, it’s also an industrial one.”
On the day gold closed down $33.60 at $2883.20, and silver closed down $0.45 at $31.80.
On Friday gold prices moved to session lows of $2830.00 and while traders did buy the dip, gold finished solidly in the red by the close. Not all diviners of the golden tea leaves are pessimistic, however. Goldman Sachs’ Research claims that gold will gain another 8% in 2025 and make another record high of $3100.00. Has this week been a harbinger of bearish news or will these lower prices turn into bargain hunting? My bet, if you widen your horizon a few months you will find the bullish scenario alive and well, despite all this chop and noise about the end of the world. If you are thinking about buying and the recent price drop, have you second guessing, stand aside. A little patience here will likely provide better prices as soon as this trade stabilizes. If you are thinking about selling, take advantage of current prices, who would have believed the price of gold would be this high just a few years ago. What our trading desk is seeing this week is a public that is not buying or selling. They may be waiting for the second shoe to fall, but it may be that their faith in real money is solid as they remain bullish.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Downward Pressures – “The gold market continues to see a lot of noise, but at this point in time, I suspect that liquidation is going to be an issue, as people are trying to cover losses in other markets. However, there are still issues with the global economy, and therefore I suspect the uptrend will continue. Technical Analysis – The gold market has fallen pretty significantly during the early hours on Friday as we continue to see a lot of noise in general, but I do think part of what’s going on here is actually people taking profit out of this market to cover losses in other markets. It does make a certain amount of sense if you think about it because we’ve been in such a bullish run for so long. Why wouldn’t people be taking profit when everything else seems to be falling apart? Because of this, I would be very cautious, with some type of bounce to take advantage of. Whether or not we get that in the next 24 hours, who knows? But we are heading into the weekend, so I’m a little ambivalent about gambling money right now when quite frankly, you can just react to whatever’s going on during the Monday session. This is a market that I think will continue to be very noisy, but I do think it ends up being positive overall. We still have tariff wars, we still have concerns about geopolitics, and everything else going on at the moment, but we had just gotten a little too far ahead of ourselves. So, I think what we have now is a situation where traders will be looking to take advantage of value in the gold market as it appears. I would pay special attention to the $2,800 level as it is not only a large round psychologically significant figure, but it also was previous resistance and features the 50-day EMA as well. Silver Continues to Look for the Floor – The silver market continues to see a lot of noisy behavior, but at this point in time, the market is likely to see a bit of support in the area of $31, as it has been important to the silver market more than once. Technical Analysis – The silver market is dancing around the crucial $31 level, an area that I’ve mentioned several times in the past, and I think we continue to look at it for potential support as it has been both support and resistance multiple times. It’s also worth noting that we tried to rally early in the day, but we struggled at the 50-day EMA.
So, if we can break above there, I think it opens up a move towards the $32.35 level. A breakdown below the $31 level could send this market down to the $30.50 area, maybe even as low as $30.00 level itself, as the 200 day EMA currently resides there. This of course will have a certain amount of influence on price and action overall. With that being said, I think it is absolutely crucial that we look at this through the prism of a market that could very well follow gold. We’ll just have to wait and see. But I also like the idea of waiting to see if we can recapture the 50 day EMA before we put any real money into the market due to the fact that there has been such volatility. Furthermore, you have to keep in mind that this market has been very, very ugly over the last couple of days, so there is going to be a little bit of hesitation, but I think if we can bounce a bit, it builds the case for a continuation of the longer term uptrend.”
On the day gold closed down $46.40 at $2836.80, and silver closed down $0.58 at $31.22.
Platinum closed down $19.80 at $932.30, and palladium closed down $1.60 at $899.70.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – “Technically, April gold futures bulls have the solid overall near-term technical advantage. However, a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has stalled out. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the contract high of $2,974.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $2,800.00. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $2,896.10 and then at $2,900.00. First support is seen at $2,950.00 and then at $2,925.00. May silver futures bulls have lost their overall near-term technical advantage as a price uptrend on the daily bar chart has been negated. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $33.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $30.00. First resistance is seen at $32.00 and then at $32.61. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $31.535 and then at $31.00.”
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