Commentary for April 17, 2026 – Today gold closed up $72.20 at $4857.60, and silver closed up $3.13 at $81.74. Gold moved higher today as Middle East tension moved lower, at least in the short term, the dollar turned soft and technicians suspect a potential breakout is in the making. How long this latest peace attempt will last is anyone’s guess. (CNBC) – Iran on Friday declared the Strait of Hormuz completely open to commercial traffic during the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon. “In line with the ceasefire in Lebanon, the passage for all commercial vessels through Strait of Hormuz is declared completely open for the remaining period of ceasefire,” Foreign Minister Araghchi said in a social media post. However, vessels must transit through a “coordinated route” announced by Iran’s authorities. Israel and Lebanon agreed Thursday to a 10-day ceasefire. Israel’s military campaign in Lebanon against the militant group Hezbollah, who are close allies of Iran, has been a sticking point in negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire on April 7 in exchange for Iran completely opening the strait. Last Friday gold closed at $4761.90, and silver closed at $76.32. On the week gold was up $95.70, and silver was up $5.42.
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On Monday the price of gold was lackluster, moving between overhead resistance at $4735.00 and underlying support at $4700.00, finishing the day mildly in the red. On one hand this lack of fireworks can be understood because the dollar is stronger as the US / Iran peace talks failed over the weekend. On the other hand, I would have expected a strong upward drift in the price of gold simply because crude oil is moving higher, which stokes inflationary expectations. And the blockade of Iranian ports is now in place over failed peace talks. So, President Trump is not playing around. Which should support fresh safe haven demand in the short to medium term.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold subdued as dollar firms, peace talks falter – Gold prices were subdued on Monday, pressured by a stronger dollar and the collapse of U.S.-Iran talks over the weekend, which fueled inflation concerns and clouded the outlook for future interest rate cuts. Spot gold fell 0.4% to $4,728.59 per ounce as of 9:23 a.m. ET (1323 GMT), after hitting its lowest since April 7 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures dropped 0.7% to $4,752.20. The U.S. dollar drifted higher, making greenback-priced metals more expensive for holders of other currencies. “It’s a very headline-driven market. All eyes are on the price of crude oil because crude oil is going to direct inflation and that is going to direct Federal Reserve policy,” said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. The U.S. military said it will begin a blockade of ships leaving Iran’s ports, and Tehran threatened to retaliate against ports of its Gulf neighbors, after weekend talks failed to reach a deal to end the war, leaving a ceasefire in jeopardy. Oil prices jumped above $100 a barrel. Higher energy prices stoke inflation concerns and limit central banks’ room to cut rates. Elevated rates, in turn, reduce the appeal of zero-yield bullion, despite its role as an inflation hedge. Markets now see about 21% chance of a U.S. rate cut by year-end, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool, down from 40% a month earlier. “If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, markets may not follow a typical risk-off pattern, as energy shortages and payment constraints could increase gold’s role as a trusted, cross-border settlement asset when currencies are restricted,” said Paul Wong, market strategist at Sprott Asset Management, said in a note. Uncertainty over future oil supply are likely to drive strong structural demand for silver through accelerated investment in solar photovoltaics, he added. Spot silver fell 2.4% to $74.07 per ounce. Platinum lost 1.2% to $2,021.28, while palladium firmed 0.4% to $1,527.45.
On the day gold closed down $19.50 $4742.40, and silver closed down $0.80 at $75.52.
On Tuesday the price of gold moved to session highs of $4810.00 in early trading as US-Iran talks resume and the dollar trends lower. UBS (Ernest Hoffman) this morning “Gold will rally substantially if geopolitical uncertainty remains high while interest rate expectations come down, and UBS sees $6200.00 gold by the end 2026. So, the bullish buzz is increasing even as interest rates seem steady and crude oil moves lower. Still, there are dissenters – ‘Gold is a high-beta asset’ and its safe-haven status is now ‘compromised’ – Robin Brooks, Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution. In my opinion the price of gold will remain mixed, but at the higher end of its current range unless interest rates move lower. Across our trading desk the public seems content to hold gold bullion, waiting for higher prices. They remain a seller of silver bullion.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasd) – Gold firms on softer dollar, hopes of US-Iran talks resuming – Gold prices gained more than 1% on Tuesday as the U.S. dollar weakened, while hopes of a resumption in U.S.-Iran talks also supported prices by easing inflation concerns. Spot gold was up 1.1% at $4,791.65 per ounce by 9:50 a.m. ET (1350 GMT). U.S. gold futures rose 1% to $4,815.40. Negotiating teams from the U.S. and Iran could return to Islamabad this week to resume talks to end the war, sources told Reuters, after the collapse of weekend negotiations prompted Washington to impose a blockade on Iranian ports. “The direction of the gold market will depend on how the talks go in Pakistan and what kind of progress is made heading into the weekend. If we see positive news, metals will continue higher,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. “Lower dollar, lower oil right now is helping gold out, being that when the war started, there was a rush to cash and a concern about being able to accumulate energy supplies,” he added. The U.S. dollar drifted lower and oil prices fell. A weaker U.S. currency makes greenback‑priced bullion more affordable for holders of other currencies. Data showed that U.S. producer prices increased less than expected in March as the cost of services was unchanged, but surging energy prices because of the war with Iran were fanning inflation pressures. Despite its role as an inflation hedge, gold becomes less attractive in a higher-rate environment because it offers no yield. Traders are now pricing in a 25% probability of a U.S. rate cut this year, compared with expectations for two cuts before the war. “As long as the market does not begin to seriously consider a rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve – there are no signs of this so far – the gold price is unlikely to fall much further,” analysts at Commerzbank said. Among other metals, spot silver rose 3.3% to $78.09 per ounce, platinum gained 0.1% to $2,072.13, while palladium inched 1% lower at $1,558.80.
On the day gold closed up $82.60 at $4825.00, and silver closed up $3.87 at $79.39.
On Wednesday the price of gold tested support at $4750.00 but traders bought this weakness and drove prices back to daily highs before gold closed mildly in the red for the day. All things considered, I like this market especially in the longer term but in the short term gold may be range bound, if so, traders will consider $4600.00 an important floor. Silver looks a bit soft, but traders are also looking carefully at what might be considered fair value around $75.00. A dip below that number might be bearish, but keep in mind the physical silver market is wacky and subject to a short squeeze on even an unfounded rumor, so keep your seat belt fastened.
FXEmpire (Christoher Lewis) – Gold Slightly Soft in Early Trading – The gold market sees a bit of pressure on Wednesday, as the recent action is so strong that a pullback makes a certain amount of sense. Technical Analysis – The gold market initially tried to rally a bit during the early part of the trading session on Wednesday but has given back a little bit of the gains as we continue to struggle just a touch to truly break out and break free. Interest rates in America continue to drop so that should help eventually, but a little bit of a pullback I think makes a lot of sense in this region. After all, we are looking at a market that has been somewhat range bound and I do think that we have a situation where traders are going to continue to look at the $4,600 level as a massive floor in the market. As long as we can stay above there, we have a real shot at the market staying positive. In that scenario, I would expect a bigger move overall. Interest Rates and Geopolitical Influence – If we can break out to the upside, the $5,000 level would be a bit of a target; I think it would also be a bit of a ceiling. Interest rates in America continue to dance around the 4.30 level, which is an area that I think will have to be watched very closely. If rates continue to stay far south of there, that drives gold higher. If it goes back above there, then that drives it lower. Silver Drifts a Touch Lower Early on Wednesday – The silver market initially looked positive on Wednesday but gave back gains as the market might be somewhat overextended. Silver will continue to move based on interest rates, so make sure to watch them. Technical Analysis – Silver initially rallied only to give back gains. The silver market broke above the $80 level initially during the trading session on Wednesday but then gave back the gains to fall back below it. All things being equal, this is a market that continues to be moving on interest rates and this is something that I’ll be watching very closely; the 10-year yield of course is something that I watch quite often. We are just above the 50-day EMA so I think it could offer a little bit of support, but I would also expect to see a lot of noisy behavior. If interest rates in the United States starts to pick up, then that will put a lot of pressure on silver. Market Ranges and Value Zones – Ultimately this is a market that I think is still trying to turn things around, but I think it will continue to be noisy and that’s essentially how things play out. All things being equal we are still trying to figure out where the next range forms, which makes sense considering how volatile we have been for months. If it is the same as it was before, $80 is the midway point, maybe fair value if you will. I would not be surprised at all to see that be the situation. If we pull back towards the $75 level, I’ll be looking for a bounce to take advantage of as it could be a bit of value in this market. Anything below $70 would be extraordinarily negative.
On the day gold closed down $25.00 at $4800.00, and silver closed up $0.10 at $79.49.
On Thursday the price of gold drifted lower to a small degree, testing support at $4780.00. As gold’s safe-haven appeal weakening as Philly Fed Survey jumps in April according to Neils Christensen (Kitco). The price of gold dipped but was only slightly below $4800.00 on lackluster technical buying. Gold continues to struggle at $4,800; market could be waiting for a solid peace plan – Pepperstone. Growing optimism that the chaos in the Middle East will lead to a long-term peace deal is bringing some normalcy back to the marketplace, as the U.S. dollar loses some of its safe-haven appeal and easing market volatility supports equity markets.
For my money I expect the price of gold to drift lower as the Middle East cools but not weaken considerably, supported by fresh safe haven demand. The public is holding on to gold bullion because of Iran uncertainty but remains a seller of silver bullion. That being said the price of gold has more reasons to move higher than lower, and insiders expect fresh new highs in 2026.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Move with Rates in the US – Gold continues to attempt to build a rally on Thursday, as markets are moving with rates in the United States, specifically the 10-year yield. I remain bullish long term though and have no interest in shorting. Technical Analysis – The gold market has shown itself to be somewhat bullish as the 50-day EMA has offered a little bit of a floor. Ultimately, I think this is a market that is going to continue to move with the latest interest rate moves and if interest rates continue to drift a little bit lower that should help gold overall. I’m using the 10-year interest rate in the United States as a bit of a proxy for risk appetite. As risk appetite picks up with lower rates, then it should help gold, which is a little bit ironic considering so many people look at gold as a safety trade and it can be, it just hasn’t been as of late. This can and will change someday, but not today, as the situation in the Middle East trumps everything that we typically pay attention to. Psychologically Significant Targets – The market at this point in time I think is eyeballing the $5,000 level, a large round psychologically significant figure that has shown itself to be both support and resistance multiple times, so I think that’s probably where we are eventually heading to. If we pull back from here, the $4,600 level is your floor, and I would be very interested in buying dips in gold. I also recognize that there are a lot of questions out there about risk appetite, the bond markets, mainly driven by the Middle East and whatever’s going on in the latest ceasefire talks, so a very fluid situation but I do favor the upside over the longer term, and always keep at least some allocation of gold in my account. Silver Continues to Grind – Silver continues to test a major resistance barrier in the form of the $80 level. At this point, I favor pullbacks as buying opportunities. I have no interest in shorting this market. Technical Analysis – The silver market initially did try to rally during the trading session on Thursday, as the $80 level has been an area where a lot of resistance has shown up, but when you look at the longer-term action, it’s essentially fair value. The $70 level underneath is support, the $90 level above is resistance. The $80 level is an area that I think is also going to be interesting due to the 50-day EMA. The interest rate decisions around the world could continue to keep rates somewhat elevated and that, of course, has an effect on silver as well; higher rates typically mean lower silver. That being said, rates have dropped as of late in the actual bond markets as the Middle East is starting to calm down a bit and that has helped silver, as rates drop in reaction to the good news. Now, we continue this pattern for the time being, from what I can tell. Focus on Position Sizing – The question is: what’s the next move? I think ultimately a short-term pullback makes a little bit of sense, but that’s probably going to end up being a buying opportunity. I think we will settle somewhere between the $70 and $90 levels for a range, but things will be very bumpy along the way. The only thing you can truly control in the silver market is going to be your position sizing, so make sure you are not overexposed. I remain bullish, I just recognize that it’s probably going to be more of a grind to the upside, so patience will be needed to navigate it.
On the day gold closed down $14.60 at $4785.40, and silver closed down $0.88 at $78.61.
On Friday the price of gold moved to session highs of $4880.00 as the Strait of Hormuz reopens and the dollar moves lower. While tensions in the Middle East are moving lower, I think Trump is dancing with the devil if he believes Iran will turn friendly toward its neighbors. I understand that the President is using a stick and carrot approach but trusting Iran to any degree is troublesome. Let’s hope this latest round of negotiations holds up and something good develops for all parties. But at the same time Reagen’s sage advice comes to mind – “Trust but Verify”. This latest attempt at peace in the Middle East has a pile of problems to resolve so it would seem the public has a “wait and see” approach – holding gold bullion but still selling silver bullion.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Sit at Same Level – Gold continues to dance around the 50-day EMA on Friday, as we are waiting to find out the next move, and where we are going. The interest rate markets continue to be the main driver. Technical Analysis – Gold continues to dance around the 50-day EMA as the market is trying to determine where we go next. A lot of what’s driving the gold market is the interest rate market, which is right at the 4.30% level in the US 10-year, which is what I use to pay attention to interest rate expectations and where the markets are going in general. This is an area in the interest rate markets that has been very important and as we teeter here, we teeter in gold. If we fall from here, the $4,600 level I think is your support level. The $5,000 level above is your resistance and potential target. Interest Rate Sensitivity and Geopolitical Mode – If interest rates fall gold should rise. Now interest rates are moving on the latest Middle Eastern headlines, and we are trying to figure out where to go next. In an environment where generally there’s more optimism, there’s no concrete deal, no concrete peace deal, anything like that going on, so I think most of the market is just in a wait-and-see type of mode. I suspect we just sit here and hang around the 50-day EMA trying to sort out where we are going to move next. Really, at this point in time, it’s about short-term back and forth little micro moves that day traders will be taking advantage of. This is a tight market, perhaps it needs to be traded on short-term time frames more than anything else. Silver Continues to Test the $80 Level – Silver continues to threaten the $80 level on Friday, as the markets are moving on interest rates, and the latest headlines about the war or ceasefire. Choppiness is probably going to be the way forward in the meantime. Technical Analysis – The silver market rallied slightly during the trading session on Friday to hang around the $80 level. The 50-day EMA sits just below offering support and I think in general you have a situation where the market is trying to determine whether or not we can continue to go to the upside. This is probably the easiest way to determine the momentum that may or may not be in this market. If we do break above the $82 level, I think that would be the clue that we’re heading to $90 after that. Keep in mind that the interest rate is the main driver of silver, with the 10-year rate a major driver in the United States. Yield Trajectory and Macroeconomic Inputs – So as yields rise, the market for silver generally softens and vice versa. We are hanging around that crucial 4.30% level over the last couple of weeks and it literally is what drives where we go next right now. The interest rate is moving on headlines coming out of the Middle East, optimism, lack of optimism, trade concerns, and, of course, energy input, causing inflation in various economies. As things stand right now, I think we’re just testing $80 and we’re trying to determine what the next move is. A pullback could open up a drop to 70, a breakout could lead to a move to 90.
On the day gold closed up $72.20 at $4857.60, and silver closed up $3.13 at $81.74.
Platinum closed up $30.40 at $2124.50, palladium closed up $19.90 at $1590.40.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, June gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $5,000.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,500.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4,895.40 and then at $4,950.00. First support is seen at $4,750.00 and then at $4,700.00. May silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at $85.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $70.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $81.155 and then at $82.50. Next support is seen at $77.00 and then at $75.00.
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