Commentary for Friday, July 17, 2026 – Today gold closed up $27.10 at $4012.70, and silver closed up $0.14 at $56.04. I think bullish sentiment is not ready to celebrate this week, but this picture is not all that bad as gold closed north of $4000.00. Now you might think this finish is no big deal considering the continuing war between the United States and Iran. But when you figure in a still hawkish FOMC, higher interest rates are pressuring gold lower. Can prices trend lower? Sure, Bank of America suggests buying the dips and averaging down. Now consider the unsolvable differences which remain in the Middle East. This geopolitical tension will likely push gold to fresh record highs in 2027, so patience at this point may prove rewarding in the longer term. Last Friday gold closed at $4104.10, and silver closed at $59.81. On the week gold was down $91.40, and silver was down $3.77.
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On Monday (7/13/26) the price of gold and silver continued to be weaker as the dollar gained strength and traders prepared for firm interest rates as the FOMC battles with stubborn inflation numbers. At the same time escalation between the U.S. and Iran over passage through the Strait of Hormuz has returned to outright warfare. Which presents the public with an enigma. You would think that the breakdown of the Strait shipping control would send the price of gold and silver higher, but at the time of this writing gold was trading down $90.00 at $4016.00 and silver was down $1.75 at $58.00. For now, a perceived hawkish FOMC will pressure the metals lower, safe haven demand moves to the backburner, and Trump options have become more dangerous.
Kitco (AM Report) – Gold and silver slide as Hormuz oil shock lifts yields – Spot gold and silver prices are sharply lower ahead of the North American market open Monday, as renewed U.S.-Iran escalation around the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude oil prices higher, lifted Treasury yields and revived concerns that energy-driven inflation could keep the Federal Reserve tighter for longer. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,055.40 an ounce, down 1.55%, while spot silver was trading near $58.36, down 2.35% on the session. Positioning after last Thursday’s June employment report and Wednesday’s Fed minutes remains less supportive for gold than it appeared immediately after the jobs release. Payrolls rose 57,000 in June, the unemployment rate held at 4.2% and April and May payrolls were revised down by a combined 74,000, initially reducing confidence in additional Fed tightening. The minutes then pushed inflation risk back into focus, and Monday’s oil spike hardened that shift. The 10-year Treasury yield was trading near 4.582% at 7:17 a.m. ET, while the 2-year yield moved above 4.20% and markets were pricing a roughly 68% chance of a September rate hike. That leaves gold with labor-market support underneath, but a stronger inflation-yield channel limiting fresh long additions. The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as open transit under active military contest, not a stable shipping environment and not a fully verified closure. The U.S. and Iran are each asserting control of the waterway after weekend attacks, with Washington saying it will protect freedom of navigation and Tehran claiming the right to manage traffic and potentially charge vessels. Visible tanker traffic has fallen sharply, and oil prices jumped after Iran said the strait was closed and U.S. forces launched fresh strikes against Iranian targets. For gold, the direct geopolitical bid is being offset by the macro channel: higher oil lifts inflation risk, keeps yields firm and supports the dollar. For broader markets, the trade is oil bid, bonds under pressure, equities softer and precious metals offered. Traders are watching this week’s CPI release, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s congressional testimony and any further disruption to Hormuz shipping lanes. A softer CPI print would reduce the pressure from real yields and give gold a cleaner path to recover the $4,091 to $4,107 resistance area, while another oil spike would keep the market focused on inflation risk and the Fed’s reaction function. The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices sharply higher and trading around $72.90 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $79.60. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.58% area.
On the day gold closed down $107.10 at $3997.00, and silver closed down $2.18 at $57.63.
On Tuesday (7/14/26) the bulls were given a nice surprise as gold surged higher, testing overhead resistance ($4100.00). This jump is especially surprising considering that yesterday gold finished the day down $107.10. Extreme volatility has returned to this trade so the wise will keep their seat belts fastened. These recent fireworks were created over lower inflation numbers and increasing hostilities between the US and Iran. With President Trump claiming that he calls all the shots, and the US Navy taking control of the area. At the same time Iran promises retaliation if Trump follows through on promises to strike Iran’s Pickaxe Mountain nuclear site. So, the stakes could not be higher. I suspect fresh safe haven demand will be the order of the day.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold gains over 2% after soft US inflation data – Gold gained more than 2% on Tuesday after softer-than-expected inflation data boosted hopes of the U.S. Federal Reserve adopting a less hawkish stance. Spot gold rose 2.1% to $4,083.99 per ounce by 8:49 a.m. EDT (1249 GMT), after falling to its lowest level since July 1 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures gained 2.2% to $4,091.80. The U.S. dollar fell 0.6%, making greenback priced bullion more affordable for other currency holders. “Gold gallops higher on a surprisingly subdued CPI report that saw headline dive lower but more importantly, core unchanged versus 0.2%. This should drop rate hike expectations sharply at least for the July and September meetings,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. U.S. consumer inflation slowed more than expected in June. The Consumer Price Index increased by 3.5% in the 12 months through June after surging 4.2% in May, while core CPI inflation was unchanged over the month, after gaining 0.2% in May. After the data, traders exited bets that the Fed would hike rates at its July 28-29 meeting. Focus is also on remarks from Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, who is scheduled to deliver the central bank’s semi-annual monetary policy report to Congress at 10 a.m. ET. Investors will also be watching the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) data, due on Wednesday. On the geopolitical front, Iran fired ballistic missiles at a U.S. air base in Jordan and the United States attacked Iranian targets for five hours in a battle for control of the Strait of Hormuz that has pushed up oil prices to four-week highs. “The resumption of serious hostilities with Iran will have headline inflation already higher this month, so gold’s rally will be tempered to $4,200 over the next few sessions and perhaps $63-$64 in silver isn’t out of the question,” Wong said. Higher inflation could prompt central banks to keep interest rates elevated for longer, weighing on non-yielding assets such as gold. Among other metals, spot silver rose 2.2% to $58.89 per ounce, platinum added 1.4% to $1,629.92 and palladium climbed 2.4% to $1,275.73.
On the day gold closed up $64.10 at $4061.10, and silver closed up $1.14 at $58.77.
On Wednesday (7/15/26) the price of gold did not impress, especially considering yesterday’s nice move to the upside. As for this writing, gold tested overhead resistance around $4070.00, faded to some degree and closed mildly in the red. With the US and Iran back to shooting at each other I would have expected stronger confirmation at these current prices in gold. But no dice at least for now as the price of crude oil looks to be the driving factor for now. Still, as long as the new Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh remains hawkish toward interest rates gold and perhaps silver are pretty much stymied and may drift lower into the holiday season. It also does not help bullish sentiment in the metals as today the Bank of Canada left interest rates unchanged.
FXEmpire (James Hyerczyk) – Soft PPI Underpins Gold, Oil Caps Gold Rally – Gold caught a bid on the soft June PPI, but the rally ran out of conviction almost immediately. The report gave buyers a reason to step in and they did, but the conversation shifted back to crude oil before the move had room to develop. June inflation data is backward looking and oil is repricing the forward inflation picture in real time. That mismatch is why gold cannot hold a rally on a number the market has already moved past. Spot Gold is trading $4059.39 at 13:34 GMT, up $6.61 or +0.16%. June’s Inflation Is Already Stale and Warsh Knows It – The PPI added to Tuesday’s soft CPI and confirmed inflation was trending in the right direction during June. Wholesale prices fell 0.3% with gasoline plunging 12% and accounting for two-thirds of the monthly decline. Core PPI was slightly cooler than expected. Two soft inflation reports in two days and gold still could not sustain a move because the June data landed in a market that has already moved on. Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz after those numbers were collected. The U.S. reimposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports, and crude climbed back toward one-month highs. Meanwhile, the gasoline decline that drove the soft PPI is already reversing at the pump. Traders may have bought the number Wednesday morning and are now spending the rest of the session talking about whether August CPI prints hotter. Higher crude, gasoline, and diesel prices right now raise the risk of hotter readings in the next round of data, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is not waiting around to find out. His testimony Wednesday made the central bank’s position clear. “No tolerance for persistently elevated inflation” is not language that softens because one month of wholesale prices came in light. Warsh is watching where inflation is headed, not where it was in June, and crude climbing on Middle East supply disruptions is pointing him toward hawkish, not dovish. Oil Is Writing Gold’s Next Move – Gold is caught between two forces and the one with momentum is working against the bid. Soft inflation data argues for fewer rate hikes, eventually lower real yields, and higher gold prices down the road. But crude climbing on Hormuz supply disruptions argues that inflation reaccelerates this summer, keeps the Fed restrictive longer than anyone positioned for in June, and caps gold right here. The market spent a few minutes on the PPI celebration and then spent the rest of Wednesday focused on crude, shipping lanes, and what the escalation means for August CPI. That shift tells you where institutional attention sits right now, and it is not on a backward-looking wholesale price report. I think the oil story holds the market’s attention until something breaks the pattern, either crude pulling back on a de-escalation or Brent pushing past $90 and forcing the Fed’s hand on the next meeting. The second scenario has the momentum. If crude keeps climbing, inflation expectations move with it, Treasury yields stay elevated, and gold goes back to pressing its lows regardless of how soft June looked on paper. If crude pulls back because Hormuz risks ease, yields drop, the rate outlook softens, and gold finally gets room to run on the disinflation trade that two consecutive soft prints should have already delivered. Technical Analysis – Spot Gold is nearly flat as traders continue to navigate the short-term retracement zone at $4072.40 to $4041.65. This is an important area to watch because either a secondary higher bottom will form or the downtrend will continue. This area is often referred to as a pivot zone. Yesterday’s price action suggests bullish traders are trying to create a secondary higher bottom at $3983.54. A sustained move over the upper end of the zone at $4072.40 will indicate the presence of buyers, but it will still have to be strong enough to overcome the next retracement zone at $4162.36 to $4214.34, which includes the swing top at $4202.71 in order to reach the 50-day moving average at $4319.95. If buyers continue to defend against a breakdown under $3942.10 then look for a rangebound trade. One problem I’ve been seeing for months is the lack of interest in aggressively taking out offers. Passively bidding has been the norm, but as you can see on the daily chart, it only leads to more lower lows, which is essentially the definition of a downtrend. What to Watch – The soft PPI confirmed June inflation was cooling but the market is not trading June anymore. Oil is repricing the inflation outlook forward and Warsh’s testimony left no room for a dovish pivot while crude keeps climbing. Treasury yields refused to follow the soft data lower, and that tells gold traders everything they need to know about where rates are headed if oil stays at these levels. Until crude breaks the other direction and eases the forward inflation pressure, gold stays range-bound with the bias pointing lower. The pivot zone between $4072.40 and $4041.65 is where this resolves. Buyers are trying to build a secondary higher bottom but passive bidding has only produced lower lows for months. A sustained push above $4072.40 opens the path toward the 50-day, but getting there requires a catalyst the inflation data alone has not been able to provide. Silver Stalls as $60 Level Acts as Magnet – Silver continues to sit just under $60 early on Wednesday, as we continue to see a bit of noisy behavior. Traders are also watching headlines and interest rates in the United States. Technical Analysis – The silver market is sitting just below the $60 level, an area that is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and one that I think a lot of people will be watching out of pure interest. The $60 level has recently been a market magnet, if you will, it’s just right in the middle of this consolidation. Because of this, it’s possible that we have a bit of sideways action continuing as we’ve seen over the last couple of weeks. And it’s very likely that traders will continue to take a look at this market with a little bit of concern. This is a market that doesn’t look like it knows what to do in this environment. Macro Pressures and Bearish Technical Crossovers – Keep in mind that interest rates are elevated, and the higher interest rates, lower silver, but that is also exacerbated by a stronger US dollar, which we have had recently, against almost everything out there. From a technical analysis standpoint, I’m looking at the 50-day EMA getting ready to cross below the 200-day EMA, something that has already happened in gold as a potential death cross. This is an indicator setup that most traders consider bearish, so with that being the case, I think you continue to have to wonder whether or not we need some type of external factor to get moving. It looks to me in my analysis that a very flat and sideways market is what we are dealing with, and there’s nothing on the candlestick early on Wednesday that suggests that has changed in the silver market.
On the day gold closed down $17.10 at $4044.00, and silver closed down $1.66 at $57.11.
On Thursday (7/16/26) – Today the price of gold tested support around $3978.00, which is a further indication that interest rates will remain steady (or perhaps move higher) this year as the FOMC fights inflation and lower prices in gold suggest further selling. The only big reason that gold prices may hold up lies within the complex relationship between the United States and Iran as both these nations remain resolute about controlling traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. If you look at the big picture, however, it is difficult for me to see substantially lower prices in gold or silver if tension continues to rise in the Middle East. Complicating this picture is the fact that this tension will push the price of crude oil higher, which will pressure energy costs higher, eventually spurring higher inflation. Across our trading desk it is quiet as the public takes a breath, trying to decide which of these powerful factors will prevail in the short to medium term.
Reuters (Noel John) – Gold falls 2% as escalating Middle East tensions reinforce US rate-hike bets – Gold fell 2% on Thursday, as escalating Middle East tensions pushed oil prices and U.S. Treasury yields higher, heightening inflation concerns and reinforcing expectations of elevated U.S. interest rates. Spot gold was down 1.5% at $4,001.17 per ounce by 0926 a.m. EDT (1326) GMT, after falling as much as 2% earlier. U.S. gold futures dropped 1.1% to $4,005.20. Oil prices rose over 1% as concerns over Middle East energy supplies increased after Iran asked Yemen’s Houthis to stand ready to close the Red Sea oil route if the U.S. strikes Iranian power infrastructure. Higher oil prices stoke inflation concerns, raising expectations of elevated interest rates and denting gold’s appeal as a non-yielding asset. “Oil prices yet again have moved higher, and with the higher Brent levels, I think there’s continued expectations that U.S. yields are likely to go higher, probably maybe even a rate hike as early as September,” which is pressuring gold, said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. Traders are now pricing in about a 56% chance that the Federal Reserve will hike rates in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note drifted higher. The U.S. dollar gained 0.2%, making bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh this week declared his determination to bring inflation down without specifically hinting at how. Meanwhile, data released on Tuesday showed that U.S. consumer inflation slowed in June, while data from Wednesday showed a decline in the producer price index. “Even if some of the near-term economic data softens, persistently high energy prices would make it difficult for the Fed to adopt a more dovish stance. For the same reason, investors are preferring the dollar over the zero-yielding gold,” Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex.com. Spot silver dropped 2.8% to $56.17 per ounce, platinum slid 0.9% to $1,658.65, and palladium dipped 2.7% to $1,279.25.
On the day gold closed down $58.40 at $3985.60, and silver closed down $1.21 at $55.90.
On Friday (7/17/26) the price of gold continues to consolidate, testing support around $3960.00 and then bouncing higher, making daily highs at $4015.00. Again, I’m not that impressed considering the price of gold closed down almost $60.00 yesterday, but going into the weekend the bulls can be happy that prices remain north of $4000.00. Considering the ongoing war between Iran and the United States I don’t think there is much downside at these current levels. And understanding that a resolute FOMC will not lower interest rates this year. These factors place gold and silver between a rock and hard place. If you have been a long time buyer of metals, consider selling into rallies to accumulate a cash position for liquidity. But don’t get carried away, the price of metals will likely make fresh new highs perhaps before the holidays.
FXEmpire (AG Thorson) – The Bottoming Process Continues as Bearishness Deepens – The recent price action in precious metals has been surprising, considering the weaker dollar and the massive downside surprise in June CPI. In my view, those developments alone should have propelled gold easily above $4,100. So, what drives the current weakness? My best guess is renewed tensions with Iran. Our Gold Cycle Indicator remains deeply oversold, and I continue to believe we are approaching an important cycle low. It would take a sustained breakdown below $3,900 to support the more bearish downside target of $3,500—a scenario I still view as the less likely outcome. Our Gold Cycle Indicator is at 16; the most oversold since late 2022. US Dollar The dollar fell sharply after Tuesday’s weaker-than-expected CPI report (-0.4%) and retested support near 100.50. Under normal circumstances, that kind of dollar weakness should have sent gold comfortably above $4,100, but it didn’t, which I viewed as a red flag. Precious metals likely need a sustained breakdown in the dollar below yesterday’s 100.35 low to regain upside momentum. Conversely, a sustained breakout above the short-term trendline in the dollar (101.20) could add bearish pressure on the metals complex. Gold – Gold posted a fresh closing low as we approach the end of the expected timing window. The weaker-than-expected CPI report and the resulting dollar weakness should have been enough to push gold well-above $4,100, but that failed to materialize. To me, that suggests the recent weakness has more to do with renewed tensions surrounding Iran. The $3,900 level remains my line in the sand. It would take a sustained breakdown lasting more than three days below that level to activate my alternate downside target of $3,500-$3,600. Until then, I continue to watch for evidence that a meaningful bottom is forming. Silver – Silver posted fresh lows in July as it approaches the lower boundary of its target zone. A decisive break down below $54.00 could trigger a backtest of $50.00. If gold confirms its alternate downside target between $3,500 and $3,600, silver could slip briefly towards $45.00 in a worst-case scenario. Silver Monthly – If silver fails to hold support near $54.00, it risks a retest of the breakout area around $49.50, which I would view as a very attractive long-term entry point. I’d be very surprised if prices remained below $50.00 for more than a few days or, at most, a couple of weeks. Platinum – Platinum continues to hold up better than both gold and silver. A series of progressive closes above $1,700 would provide constructive evidence that a meaningful bottom is in place. If prices weaken further, major support remains near $1,500. Conclusion – Tuesday’s -0.4% CPI print and the weaker U.S. dollar should have been enough to push gold higher, reinforcing the case that a mid-year low was already in place. The fact that it didn’t suggests other bearish forces remain at work and could drive prices lower before a final bottom is established. Overall, I continue to believe the correction that began in January is approximately 95% complete and that we are approaching an important low. However, if gold fails to hold the $3,900 level through July, I will have to acknowledge the possibility of a deeper decline towards $3,500. Under that scenario, silver could temporarily fall to around $45.00. The bigger picture remains unchanged. I view the current correction as just a pause within a multi-year bull market that should extend into 2030, with gold ultimately surpassing $10,000 and silver rising above $300. In the near term, however, bearish sentiment appears to be reaching an extreme, suggesting may be close to a bottom.
On the day gold closed up $27.10 at $4012.70, and silver closed up $0.14 at $56.04.
Platinum closed down $29.90 at $1605.80, and palladium closed down $19.50 at $1244.00.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices remain below the psychologically important $4,000 level after breaking lower on Thursday. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above $4,000, with a sustained move targeting $4,008.70 and then $4,044. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $3,970.20, with deeper downside targets at $3,959 and then $3,942. First resistance is seen at $4,000 and then at $4,008.70. First support is seen at $3,970.20 and then at $3,959. Spot silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices remain below $55.60 and continue to trade near the lower end of the latest breakdown range. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $55.60, with a move above that level targeting $57.13 and then $57.52. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $54.65, with deeper downside targets at $53.42 and then $50.00. First resistance is seen at $55.60 and then at $57.13. Next support is seen at $54.65 and then at $53.42.
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