Commentary for Friday, July 10, 2026 – Today gold closed down $26.50 at $4104.10, and silver closed down $0.57 at $59.81. As we approach the weekend it appears gold has developed several crosswinds which may suppress prices the rest of this year. Depending on whether you are pitching or batting as our English friends are fond of saying. On the plus or bullish side is the fact that gold seems to be holding the psychologically important $4000.00 level. On the minus or bearish side, it appears the FOMC will not be lowering interest rates this year. The interest rate question is the more important of the two because the Fed is worried about inflation. So, insiders believe that the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve (Kevin Warsh) will remain hawkish, even though President Trump has been beating the drum for lower interest rates for some time. Last Friday gold closed at $4112.70, and silver closed at $60.64. On the week gold was closed down $8.60, and silver was down $.83.
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On Monday (7/6/26) the price of gold held a fairly tight trading range and finished up almost $50.00 in the green for the day, providing fresh spark to bullish sentiment. Even as some technical signs suggest, lower prices may soon be in cards. Ignoring the nay sayers Saxo Bank believes that gold may have found its floor as liquidation gives way to consolidation. These latest prices may indicate higher prices in gold are in the making. But the FOMC is worried about inflation and will likely hold interest rates at these levels. Which provides the proverbial wet blanket to bullish sentiment. Still patience through the end of this year may prove profitable.
FXEmpire (Christoher Lewis) – Gold Pops as Weak Jobs Report Sparks Short-Term Rally – I think we’re in the middle of trying to find the floor in the gold market, but we still have a lot of overhead resistance. Because of this, I expect choppy trading. Technical Analysis – The gold market has jumped higher to kick off the trading session on Monday, as traders come back to react to the jobs report last week. That being said, I think this is a situation where we will be looking to fade short-term rallies that show signs of exhaustion. This is the catch in the market right now. I believe we are still trying to determine which longer-term direction makes the most sense at the moment. In the meantime, though, a little bit of a pop does make a lot of sense. After all, we had been falling for quite some time, and we bounced from the crucial $4,000 level, but I’m not bullish on gold quite yet. If we were to break down below the $3,900 level, then possibly we would go much lower. Death Cross Risks and Overhead Resistance – Short-term rallies, I think at this point in time, will probably continue to see the 200-day EMA act as a bit of a barrier somewhere near the $4,300 region by the time we get there. The 50-day EMA is trying to drop below the 200-day EMA to kick off the so-called death cross, but quite frankly, that’s normally late. I think we’re in the middle of trying to find the floor. I don’t think we have quite yet, but in the short term, we might get a little bit of a pop. Signs of exhaustion could be a selling opportunity. Whether or not we can break below $4,000 will be the question. This area will continue to attract headlines and, therefore, a lot of volume. Silver Gaps Higher as Buyers Defend $60 Floor – Silver gaps higher to kick off the Monday session, as we are trying to price in the idea that the Fed may not hike as rapidly as once thought. Technical Analysis – Silver gaps higher to kick off the trading week on Monday as we are well above the $60 level. The question now at this point in time is whether or not we can continue to recover. We have dropped since then, but that being said, I think you also have to look at the $60 level as a potential floor. If we continue to see buyers on dips, I think, given enough time, market participants will try to look to the 200-day EMA at the $67.15 level. This is an area that I think will be difficult to break above, and I would look for exhaustion there. Resistance Hurdles and Downside Risks – If we break down from here, watch the $57 level. It’s an area that, breaking down below there could open up the possibility of a drop to the $50 level. This is a massive level going back multiple decades, so it will attract a lot of headlines. Ultimately, this is a market that if we break it down from here, we watch the $57 level. Ultimately, this is a market where I think, given enough time, participants will try to go looking to the 200-day EMA at the $67.15 level. If we break down from here, watch the $57 level, it’s an area that breaking down below there could open up the possibility of a drop down to the $50 level. Ultimately, I think the $60 level is a potential floor. I like the idea of fading short-term rallies that show signs of exhaustion. This could be the play, but as usual in the silver market, you will have to be cautious about the position size you use.
On the day gold closed up $42.40 at $4155.10, and silver closed up $1.28 at $61.92.
On Tuesday (7/7/26) the price of gold tested support this morning at $4116.00 and then moved to daily highs of $4176.00 before falling out of bed in the aftermarket and testing support around $4097.00. This latest test of bullish support failed in no small part because gold could not seem to create fresh bullish sentiment after yesterday’s rather substantial close to the upside. I would also assume this weakness has been created because tension has decreased as travel risks through the Strait of Hormuz have decreased. It is counterintuitive but worth noting that buying and selling gold and silver bullion across our trading desk has slowed. As the public decides if higher interest rates, a negative which suggests lower prices for gold will prevail. Or if continued higher inflation numbers will eventually force higher interest rates and lower prices in gold and silver.
FXEmpire (Christoher Lewis) – Gold Clings to $4,000 Floor Facing Heavy Moving Average Resistance – The gold market is drifting around at the moment, as we are looking to figure out whether the uptrend can continue. Technical Analysis – The gold market fell initially to kick off the trading session on Tuesday to fill the gap from the Monday session but then turned around to show signs of life. The gold market continues to be noisy in general, and I do think we have to look at this through the prism of a market that has recently defined the $4,000 level as significant support. The question at this point in time is whether or not we can continue to go to the upside. Technical Moving Averages and Death Cross Risk –The 200-day EMA is at the $4,344 level and dropping, with the 50-day EMA above it also dropping, perhaps kicking off the so-called death cross. We’ll have to wait and see, but the one thing looking at this chart tells you is that there’s a very high potential that the area could be a resistance based on historical price action and, of course, those moving averages. All things considered, I still believe there is a lot of overhead pressure, especially if the interest rates in America continue to be elevated and the US dollar continues to take off. If that ends up being the case, then signs of exhaustion are potential selling opportunities. You have to keep in mind that there are a lot of concerns out there right now, and that does tend to help gold longer-term. But right now, we’re just trying to determine whether or not we can even keep the uptrend going. We would need to clear the 200-day EMA to the upside for technical purists to get excited. After that massive run that we had seen, a drop to the $3,500 level, despite the fact that it would be somewhat scary, truthfully, looks pretty normal. So I’m still a bit suspicious about the short-term trend. Longer-term, I do think we go higher, but I think we’ve got a lot of noisy times ahead of us, though. Silver Holds Above $60 as Strong Dollar Restricts Gains – Silver continues to be very noisy on Tuesday, as we are looking to sort out where we are trying to go in the medium to longer term. At this point, the markets continue to watch the US dollar and interest rate situation. Technical Analysis – The silver market fell initially during the trading session on Tuesday to fill the gap from the Monday session and has since bounced. The $60 level looks as if it is offering a bit of support, and it is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. The headlines, of course, will continue to pay close attention to the $60 level, but if we were to break down below there, then I’ll be watching the $57 level. Anything below there, then I would anticipate that silver could drop to the $50 level. Rallies at this point, I think the 200-day EMA sitting right around the $67 level could be a target, or you could also think of it as a potential ceiling for the silver market. Currency Pressures and Supply Deficits – The US dollar remains fairly strong, and as long as that’s the case, I think silver probably struggles. Typically, there is a negative correlation over the longer term. Speaking of the longer term, I am bullish on silver eventually, but I also recognize that the market is trying to simply find a reason to go higher, and the lack of supply eventually will be a major factor, as there isn’t enough silver to satiate demand over the longer-term. Right now, though, it looks like we’re focusing more on the US dollar and, of course, interest rates. As things stand right now, I’m still somewhat bearish on signs of exhaustion in the silver market, at least until the bond market starts to attract buying, to push rates lower again.
On the day gold closed down $9.80 at $4145.30, and silver closed down $0.99 at $60.93.
On Wednesday (7/8/26) the price of gold collapsed testing support around $4047.00 as the US and Iran are once again at war, higher oil prices prevail, and the FOMC holds interest rates steady as a shield against troubling inflation numbers. Whether or not gold holds the $4000.00 mark remains to be seen but investors might consider something around $3500.00 for planning purposes. At the time of this writing, gold was down more than $100.00 so bullish sentiment at least in the short to mid-term has taken a hit. If you have been accumulating gold bullion over the longer term a typical play given the rising geopolitical tension would be to sell small portions of your position into these rallies. But considering rising tensions worldwide I would not be a big seller of gold or silver bullion as some insiders expect fresh record prices by the holidays.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Precious Metal Eyes Crucial $4,000 Psychological Floor – Gold gaps lower as the US bombs Iran, and interest rates spike again. At this point, the markets are likely to be looking for a break in geopolitical risks to resume attempting to go higher. Technical Analysis – The gold market has gapped lower during the open here on Wednesday, but at this point in time, the market is likely to continue to see a lot of noise just above the $4,000 level. The $4,000 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that a lot of traders will be watching. I think it is a potential floor in the market. If we were to break down below the $3,900 level, the market could really unwind down to the $3,500 level, and it wouldn’t surprise me at all to see that happen. That being said, a short-term bounce is possible. So, if you are a short-term trader, that could be your plan for the day. We have pushed back a little bit against the selling pressure. US rates in a climb during the early part of the session will continue to put pressure on gold, so I’m not a big fan of buying here, but I do recognize that the technical bounce could be part of the play. Imminent Death Cross Threatens Gold Outlook – The 50-day EMA is likely to break down below the 200-day EMA, and if it does, that kicks off the so-called Death Cross. It would not be a good sign either. That being said, the indicator does tend to lag, so that’s just telling you what you’ve seen over the last several months that gold has been in trouble. I don’t see anything on this chart that tells me gold is going to explode to the upside. Longer term, I like it, but now we have too many things working against higher gold prices.
On the day gold closed down $74.40 at $4070.90, and silver closed down $2.77 at $57.20.
On Thursday (7/9/26) – Today the price of gold surged higher, testing overhead resistance at $4128.00, providing some reason for the bulls to believe recent warnings of technical danger are not of much concern. Helping this enthusiasm is today’s bounce to the upside after gold fell out of bed yesterday, this perhaps suggesting some kind of short term floor. Also encouraging the bulls is the latest clash between the United States and Iran as Trump launched new strikes claiming that the “ceasefire” is over. So bullish optimism may grow into the weekend. But I’m afraid insiders still see a continued decline as interest rates are held firm into the holiday season.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Consolidates as Looming Death Cross Signals Risk – The gold market continues to be noisy on Thursday, as traders look to the interest rate markets and the US dollar as resistance. Technical Analysis – The gold market continues to be noisy as it did rise slightly in the early part of the trading session, right as we’re about to get the so-called death cross with the 50-day EMA getting ready to break down below the 200-day EMA. We’ll see whether or not that kicks off further selling. Rising interest rates in America have not helped, and now it looks like the real battle is whether or not we can hang on to the $4,000 level. This is an area that will be crucial for the long-term health of the bullish trend for the last few years. Technical Indicators and Support Boundaries – A breakdown below $3,900, I think, opens up a floor down to the $3,500 level in this market, and I think that’s probably pretty likely. Anytime this market rallies it seems to struggle, and with a reasonably strong US dollar, that’s going to continue to be a problem. Ultimately, I like the idea of perhaps fading short-term rallies that show signs of exhaustion, but really, at this point in time, I’m not overly aggressive. I think gold is going to remain very noisy and that will probably be the way this market plays out for some time. With this, I like the idea of fading the first signs of exhaustion. I’m not really a big fan of jumping in with both feet, but I do recognize that if we break down, that could get ugly really quickly. If that’s going to be the case, then I anticipate that traders will continue to push and push, probably with a US dollar that’s rising at the same time. Silver Risks Breakdown as US Interest Rates Surge – Silver continues to hang on by a thread on Thursday, as the support has been chopped away for several days. Expect more volatility in this already choppy market. The silver market looks very much like a market that is trying to sort out where to go next, with the reality being that we are just hanging around the $60 level. If this market were to break down from here, perhaps below the $57 level, then we have a situation where the bottom could fall out, and we could go looking at the $50 level as a potential target. Short-term rallies will continue to be selling opportunities at the first signs of exhaustion, from what I can see. Interest Rates and Inflationary Headwinds – But really, at this point, I think you have to watch very closely the interest rate markets in the United States. If they continue to rally, I think that ends up being the death of silver, at least in the short term. The $50 level should continue to be important; going back decades, it’s been important, and I don’t see why that would be any different. This could be an excellent entry for longer-term traders, but we will have to wait and see if that opportunity arises. I would be very interested in buying near that level, assuming that we stabilize. In the short term, though, it just looks like a market that can’t pick up its feet. There are concerns about inflation, and therefore there are concerns about interest rates rising, which works against the value of silver, especially when the US dollar rises in conjunction, which is exactly the play that we’ve seen. I continue to look at any rally in silver with suspicion.
On the day gold closed up $59.70 at $4130.60, and silver closed up $2.22 at $60.38.
On Friday (7/10/26) the price of gold trended lower in a typical choppy fashion as traders tested support around $4088.00. I believe this weakening trend will continue if interest rates remain relatively high, although there is something to the notion that gold is now in consolidation. That being said the downside of gold from these levels remains uncertain in the short to medium term. It is possible that a breakdown approaching $3500.00 gold is in the making. But it is difficult for me to see this minor calamity given rising tensions and likelihood of safe haven demand from the Middle East. It is more probable that gold will remain range bound through the end of this year.
Kitco AM Report – Gold, silver soften as Hormuz oil risk keeps yields firm – Spot gold and silver prices are modestly lower ahead of the North American market open Friday, as traders balanced last week’s weaker payrolls report against Wednesday’s Fed minutes, steady Treasury yields and renewed Strait of Hormuz uncertainty. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,104.30 an ounce, down 0.44%, while spot silver was trading near $59.49, down 0.57% on the session. Gold’s early range was $4,093.70 to $4,135.50, leaving the metal above the $4,090 area but still below the $4,162 to $4,214 resistance zone that capped the latest rebound. Silver’s early range was $59.15 to $60.89, with the metal holding above Thursday’s lows but failing to reclaim the $61.00 area. Positioning after last Thursday’s June employment report and Wednesday’s Fed minutes remains mixed for precious metals. Payrolls rose 57,000 in June, about half of expectations, while the unemployment rate held at 4.2% and April and May payrolls were revised down by a combined 74,000. That softer labor-market backdrop initially supported gold by reducing confidence in further Fed tightening, but the minutes kept inflation risk in focus and left traders reluctant to add aggressively to long metals exposure. The 10-year Treasury yield was near 4.53% and DXY was near 100.87, leaving gold supported by softer hiring momentum but capped by yields that remain elevated. The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as open transit under elevated political and shipping risk, not a confirmed chokepoint closure. Oil prices were choppy after a series of unclaimed strikes in southern Iran, while Washington and Tehran both continued to say the waterway must remain open. Iran has argued that vessels should pay fees to transit the strait, which carries about one-fifth of global oil and natural gas flows, but the market is not pricing a full blockade. Brent crude traded near $77.08 and WTI near $72.73, keeping a geopolitical bid under energy while limiting gold’s upside through the inflation-yield channel. Traders are watching the next CPI release, any follow-through in Hormuz shipping disruptions and Fed communication after Wednesday’s minutes. A cooler inflation print would reduce the pressure from real yields and give gold a cleaner path to test the $4,162 to $4,214 resistance zone, while another oil spike would keep the market focused on inflation risk and the Fed’s reaction function. The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices firmer and trading around $72.73 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $77.08. The U.S. dollar index is steady near 100.87. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.53% area.
On the day gold closed down $26.50 at $4104.10, and silver closed down $0.57 at $59.81.
Platinum closed down $0.70 at $1618.10, and palladium closed up $22.40 at $1266.30.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,091.00 to $4,103.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,140.00 and then $4,203.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,000.00, with deeper downside targets at $3,959.00 and then $3,942.00. First resistance is seen at $4,135.50 and then at $4,162.36. First support is seen at $4,093.70 and then at $4,053.60. Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $59.44 and then $63.28, with a move above that level targeting the 200-day moving average at $70.06 and then the 50-day moving average at $70.53. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $58.53, with deeper downside targets at $55.60 and $50.00. First resistance is seen at $60.89 and then at $63.28. Next support is seen at $59.15 and then at $58.53.
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