Commentary for Thursday, July 2, 2026 – Today gold closed up $44.40 at $4112.70, and silver closed up $0.55 at $60.64. While this week has been rather frightful and volatile, today’s close to the upside suggests that Independence Day may welcome increasing bullish sentiment. Now of course this is no guarantee going into a long holiday weekend. But the key being talked about over early morning coffee is that a weaker than expected jobs report will cool near-term Federal Reserve tightening expectations. Which will in turn move gold higher on the short to medium term. Last Friday gold closed at $4078.70, and silver closed at $59.22. On the week gold was higher by $34.00, and silver was up $1.42.
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On Monday (6/29/26) the price of gold broke lower on the open testing support approaching $3995.00 so the bulls walked into a fresh week on a sour note, not able to develop Friday’s hopeful bounce to the upside. The international tension created over the travel through the Strait of Hormuz is not settled but for the time being both parties agree that working on a solution is better than aggressive warfare. This will work for now and helps the price of crude oil move lower, perhaps helping decrease short and longer term inflation trends. It looks like $4000.00 gold offers some support but a break below $3900.00 would likely open the door to $3500.00. Personally, I think gold will continue to trend lower on the short to medium term.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Looks for a Reason to Bounce – The gold market has dropped a bit in the early part of the trading day on Monday, as the Asian and European markets were unfavorable. At this point, the market is likely to see a lot of questions asked. Technical Analysis – The gold market has pulled back just a touch during the trading session on Monday in the Asian and European markets, but the $4,000 level still offers a significant amount of support. Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to see buyers on dips, and I think $4,000 will continue to be a very important level to watch for traders. If we were to break above the $4,100 level, it opens up the possibility of a move to the $4,200 level. I do think there is still a lot of concern out there in the gold market, but a little bit of a short-term sideways action and perhaps even a bounce might open up the possibility of a return towards the 200-day EMA. On the other hand, if we break down below $3,900, that could send the gold market lower, perhaps down to the $3,500 level. Ultimately, though, this is a market that I think will continue to look more or less at interest rates, and of course, more importantly, the US dollar. Gold, I think, probably has some issues for a while, but longer term, I’m a big believer in the gold market. But we need to watch $3,900. If it breaks to the downside, we’ve got a deeper correction. It does make a certain amount of sense that $4,000 offers a little bit of a barrier, so don’t be surprised if the market gets a little sleepy here, perhaps just hanging around in this general region. Silver Continues to Dance Just Below a Previous Support Level – Silver continues to be a lot of choppiness just waiting to happen. The silver market has been noisy as of late, and now looks as if it is trying to turn things around. Whether or not it can remain to be seen. Technical Analysis – The $60 level is an area that I think a lot of people have been watching for some time, and as a result, you have to look at this area as a potential barrier or perhaps a potential liquidity grab underneath the bottom of a larger consolidation area. Ultimately, I think this is going to come down possibly to the US dollar and how it behaves. Silver tends to be very sensitive to the US dollar in general, so make sure you pay attention to it overall, as well as interest rate moves. On a Break Lower – If we were to break below the $55.50 level, then I think it opens up a move to the $50 level. You’ll probably see the US dollar pick up against most things, not just silver. On the other hand, if we break to the upside and can close above the $60 level, we may make a run towards $65, which would be a scenario that makes a bit of sense, as we have tried to at least find some stability. I’m not willing to put a lot of money into the silver market, but I recognize that it is a little oversold, so it might make for a decent kind of “smash and grab” trade. Long-term, it is still up in the air, but the silver market is a place which can be volatile and dangerous at times.
On the day gold closed down $56.40 at $4022.30, and silver closed down $1.04 at $58.18.
On Tuesday (6/30/26) the price of gold gave the bulls some respite this morning as it moved into the green in the early trade, testing overhead resistance around $4066.00 before settling almost unchanged on the day. So, the theory that gold enjoys support around $4000.00 still holds water. But the fact that the FOMC will likely not ease interest rates anytime soon restricts higher gold pricing. At the same time traders are not expecting fresh bullish news which is strong enough to cause gold to break to the upside. Because consumer confidence continues to improve. Still, the uncertain outcome of hostilities between the United States and Iran suggest that fresh safe haven demand may be in the making. But for now, gold is trying to work around overhead resistance and remains a moving target. Technically a break above $4300.00 will refresh bullish fireworks.
Reuters (Sukanya Mitra) – Gold gains as dollar weakens; still on track for fourth straight weekly loss – Gold rose on Friday as the dollar weakened and expectations of U.S. interest rate hikes eased slightly following inflation data, though prices were still on track for a fourth consecutive weekly decline. Spot gold was up 1.3% at $4,077.64 per ounce by 1:35 p.m. EDT (1735 GMT). U.S. gold futures for August delivery settled 1.2% higher at $4,096.30 per ounce. The U.S. dollar eased from recent highs after the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge on Thursday. The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index surged 4.1% in the 12 months through May, matching economists’ forecasts in a Reuters poll. Traders are pricing in about a 59% chance of a U.S. rate hike in September, lower than an earlier expectation of 64%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Gold is seeing a modest rebound after coming under selling pressure earlier this week, said Jim Wyckoff. Higher interest rates and tighter monetary policy reduce the appeal of non-yielding bullion, as they tend to boost bond yields and increase returns on interest-bearing assets. Spot gold hit more than a seven-month low earlier this week and prices were down 2.1% for the week. TD Securities said in a note that given gold’s inverse relationship with both higher oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar, sustained strength in energy markets could put further downward pressure on the precious metal in the months ahead. Gold started trading at a premium in India this week for the first time in a month and a half, as a price correction lifted buying, while demand stayed subdued in China, the top consumer. Among other precious metals, spot silver rose 2.2% to $59.12 per ounce. Platinum gained 2% to $1,632.80 and palladium jumped 2.5% to $1,213.87. All three were headed for weekly declines.
On the day gold closed up $0.60 at $4022.90, and silver closed up $1.30 at $59.48.
On Wednesday (7/1/26) the price of gold jumped higher this morning, confounding paper traders who were preparing for lower prices in both gold and silver as interest rates move higher, being spurred by troubling inflation numbers. But I believe the play here is to keep your options open as the geopolitical scene is still a mess. And what the Fed will do with interest rates in the next several months also remains uncertain. My bet is that paper traders will be sensitive to $4000.00 gold, any weakness at this level may open the door to a $3500.00 consideration. At the same time a sustained technical move above $4300.00 might suggest fresh record highs are in the making sooner than later. Silver traders seem to be waiting for a wash out below $60.00, perhaps in the $56.00 range. So, what should physical bullion investors do? This is a tough market to call for both metals, but I would consider selling a small portion of my bullion position to increase liquidity. Keeping in mind that insiders are looking for fresh highs in silver and gold by next year. Which suggests that patience at these higher levels may prove rewarding in the longer term.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Clings to $4,000 Support Ahead of Jobs Data – Gold markets continue to hang on to the $4,000 level during the early part of the session on Wednesday. Technical Analysis – Gold markets have initially fell a bit during the early part of the trading session here on Wednesday but then turned around to show signs of life. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to watch the $4,000 level very closely, as it’s a large round, psychologically significant figure and an area that I think will continue to print headlines for the markets. Eyeing the Strong US Dollar and Thursday’s Jobs Data – Falling a bit and then bouncing makes sense; that’s what we’ve done for a couple of days now, but at the same time, we also have to keep in mind that interest rates in the United States have risen. The main culprit here is that the US dollar is being so strong, but whether or not we break down remains to be seen. Keep in mind that the jobs number is on Thursday, so that’s probably a high bar to overcome in order to really get the market moving for a bigger move. Ultimately, a lot of traders are betting on the idea that the Federal Reserve is going to raise rates twice between now and the end of the year, and if they do, then it makes sense that gold continues to struggle. Ultimately, though, I think this is a situation where a short-term bounce probably just means we’re just hanging out in a short-term range. I don’t look at this as a market that’s ready to take off to the upside, at least not yet, but it certainly is an intriguing area. If we were to break down below the low of the Tuesday session, then it’s possible that the market could go looking to the $3,500 level. Ultimately, though, I think we’re probably more sideways than anything else. Is Silver Set for a Relief Rally? Why Sellers Are Waiting Near $60 – Silver dropped a bit in the early part of the session on Wednesday but continues to see a bit of support as we wait for the jobs report on Thursday. Silver continues to be very noisy to say the least. Technical Analysis – Silver initially pulled back a bit during the early part of the trading session on Wednesday, but we are trying to get back to the $60 level. The $60 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. If we can break above there on a daily close, it could open up the possibility of a move to the 200-day EMA, but we’ll just have to wait and see. Trading the Relief Rally and Exhaustion Signs – Any rally at this point in time that shows signs of exhaustion is probably a reason to get short, and with silver being as weak as it has been, I think it does make a certain amount of sense that we get a little bit of a relief rally to get back to a sense of balance. That being said, keep in mind that the jobs report comes out on Thursday, and that will obviously skew what happens in the market, especially considering that Friday is essentially closed for the most part, with some limited overseas trading as Americans are about to take a 3-day weekend for the Independence Day holiday. If we turn around and break down from here, breaking below the $57 level, the market is likely to continue to drift down to the $50 level over the longer term. I don’t like silver at the moment. I do think that a bounce opens up the possibility of getting short at the first signs of trouble. If we can recapture the 200-day EMA, it would change everything, but we are nowhere near that right now.
On the day gold closed up $45.40 at $4068.30, and silver closed up $0.61 at $60.09.
On Thursday (7/2/26) – Some might say that today’s price jump is simply momentum follow through from yesterday’s nicely higher close. But there may be something more important cooking, in that the latest data suggests employment is weakening. And if this new trend continues it may force the FOMC to lower interest rates. Something the President has been talking about even before the old FOMC Chief was replaced. I’m not wholly convinced these latest data points are that important or even represent a significant trend. But if they are we may see all-time highs in gold and silver before Christmas. How is that for a firecracker?
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Gold and silver rally as NFP miss dents Fed-hike bets – Spot gold and silver prices are sharply higher after Thursday’s June employment report, as a weaker-than-expected payrolls print pressured the U.S. dollar and cooled near-term Federal Reserve tightening expectations. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,123.80 an ounce, up 2.28%, while spot silver was trading near $61.052, up 3.27% on the session. The June payrolls report shifted positioning back toward a softer Fed path. Nonfarm payrolls rose 57,000 in June, well below the 115,000 consensus, while unemployment fell to 4.2% and April-May payrolls were revised down by a combined 74,000. The data was weak enough to push the dollar lower and pull the 10-year Treasury yield down to 4.465% at 8:47 a.m. ET, but not clean enough to force an immediate Fed pivot because the lower unemployment rate still points to limited layoffs. Rate traders moved the hike debate further out the curve, with expectations for additional tightening pushed toward December rather than October. The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as a new, lower-volume operating regime rather than a resolved chokepoint. Daily traffic has stabilized between 30 and 60 crossings over the past seven days, with an average of 40 vessels a day so far this week, but uncertainty remains over whose approval is required to transit the strait. Iran continues to assert the right to manage traffic, while U.S. forces have told mariners that no nation has authority to close or control the waterway. Traders are watching the early closes in U.S. cash markets ahead of the July 4 holiday and the next inflation data on July 14. Thin holiday liquidity could amplify moves in the dollar, Treasury yields and precious metals. The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices lower and trading around $67.19 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $70.26. The U.S. dollar index is lower. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.5% area.
On the day gold closed up $44.40 at $4112.70, and silver closed up $0.55 at $60.64.
Platinum closed up $27.70 $1616.60, and palladium closed up $49.10 at $1261.90.
On Friday (7/3/26) – We will be closed, celebrating the 4th of July. Enjoy and be safe!
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,162.36 to $4,214.34 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,382.62 and then $4,411.94. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $3,959.00, with deeper downside targets at $3,942.10 and then $3,886.46. First resistance is seen at $4,162.36 and then at $4,214.34. First support is seen at $3,959.00 and then at $3,942.10. Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $60.05 to $63.32 area, with a move above that zone targeting $65.03 and then $69.85. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $58.83, with deeper downside targets at $58.00 and then $55.58. First resistance is seen at $60.05 and then at $63.32. Next support is seen at $58.83 and then at $58.00.
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