Commentary for Friday, June 26, 2026 – Today gold closed up $48.20 at $4078.70, and silver closed up $0.87 at $59.22. It has been a tough week for the bulls but today’s bounce to the upside may be just what the doctor ordered considering $4000.00 gold is an important psychological figure, as is now in play. As of this writing, the odds favoring lower interest rates are not good, but they improve as we move toward the holiday season. A small plus for bullish sentiment. The jury is out as investors wait for fresh news, this coming week. I’m not overly optimistic but I’m feeling a little better about higher prices in gold and silver, especially if they rally from these levels next week. Last Friday gold closed at $4224.10, and silver closed at $66.26. On the week gold was down $145.40, and silver was down $7.04.
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On Monday (6/22/26) the price of gold was somewhat steady this morning if you consider that last Thursday (the domestic markets were closed on Friday) gold bears enjoyed a sizable downside slide of $134.80. This Monday’s weakness recovered quickly, moving to $4212.00 before closing solidly in the red, down $42.20 at $4181.90. So, the likelihood that the Fed will remain hawkish might spur $4000.00 gold even this week. This mixed bag will have investors scratching their heads considering that tension in the Middle East will likely not disappear soon. On the plus side, Societe Generale, one of the leading multinational financial services and universal banks in Europe is buying this dip claiming that persistent inflation, oil driven price shocks, and higher for longer interest rates will cap gold prices for the time being. At the time of this writing volume numbers across our trading desk are surprisingly quiet.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Drops at the Open – Gold markets gapped lower to kick off the trading week, as we are now watching the Middle East yet again. With the weekend meeting seeing mixed results, it makes sense that we are still “stuck.” The gold market initially gapped lower to kick off the Monday session but has since recovered quite a bit. The question now is whether or not we’ll get any follow-through, and honestly, I think we probably will eventually see the sellers come back into this market, but we could rally all the way to the 200-day EMA, which is at the $4,371 level pretty quickly, I would imagine. Geopolitical Drivers and Technical Levels – The consolidation makes a certain amount of sense because we are seeing questions asked about the Middle East, and now it appears that the Iranians are at least accepting the idea of nuclear inspectors again, so that’s a move in the right direction, I suppose, for peace going forward. But ultimately, this is a market that I think sold off pretty viciously and now is trying to find a range to trade in. A little bit of a recovery from here makes a certain amount of sense, but again, I look at the 200-day EMA as a major level that, quite frankly, if we can break above, gold can take off towards the $4,600 level. This is an area that I think will be difficult to break above without a major catalyst. But right now, I don’t know if there’s enough out there to keep this market from just bouncing around in the general vicinity that we’ve seen over the last 2 weeks. Watch the interest rate markets in America; if they start to fall, that should help gold, although that correlation broke down recently as well, so be aware of that possibility of continuation. Silver Drops to Kick Off the Week – The silver market continues to be a volatile place to trade, as we are still following the latest headlines coming out of the Middle East. Still, I find it hard to get a big position going in this asset at the moment. Technical Analysis – The silver market gapped lower to kick off the trading session here on Monday as concerns about the Middle East continue to be a major issue overall. That being said, since then, we’ve heard that the Iranians are willing to allow nuclear inspectors into their country, and that at least is a sign that things may be getting a little bit better. Ultimately, the $60 level underneath should remain pretty much support, with the $70 level above offering resistance. We are sitting just below the 200-day EMA, which is more or less a magnet for price. Macro Drivers and Technical Levels – Ultimately, I think this is a market that will continue to be noisy, continue to bounce around, and I think ultimately, we’ll have to make a much bigger decision. Once it does, it should be fairly obvious, but this is a market that I think once we can get through the Middle Eastern problems, people may start to focus on the fact that there is not enough silver out there for the AI or the electrification trade. This continues to be a longer-term macro tailwind, but the market obviously hasn’t been paying as much attention to this lately. And that may be the next catalyst for a bigger move. Short-term dips continue to be buying opportunities, but if we break down below $60, that could change everything. We could start to target $50 at that point, but it would take a significant amount of selling to force that move.
On the day gold closed up $1.20 at $4183.10, and silver closed down $0.14 $65.39.
On Tuesday (6/23/26) gold broke to the downside in early trading, falling into the red by more than $50.00. So, traders need fresh bullish news, or this market will likely continue to drift lower, testing support around $4000.00. You may see some kind of bounce to the upside at these numbers, but I think this kind of bargain hunting is unlikely. The FOMC remains hawkish because inflation is troubling and while the Middle East appears to be cooling the outcome of talks between the United States and Iran are never guaranteed regardless of what Iran says because it wants nuclear parity with Israel. For now, we have another quiet day across our trading desk. The public is not a big seller of gold but is selling silver bullion on rallies.
FXEmpire (Christoher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Look to the $4000 Region – The gold market continues to see a lot of downward pressure in general, as we are looking to sort out whether or not the $4000 level will be targeted. Technical Analysis – The gold market has shown itself to be somewhat bearish early during trading here on Tuesday as traders continue to pay close attention to what’s going on in the Middle East. Quite frankly, we have a scenario where traders are watching headlines, the latest of which being the Iranians claim that they will run the administration of the Strait of Hormuz after everything is said and done. And that, of course, dims the prospect for peace. Now, having said that, nothing’s happened yet, but the market did react. To me, it looks like a market that is trying to find a way to test the $4,000 level, an area that, quite frankly, is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and one that a lot of traders will be watching closely. After all, it is more likely than not going to end up being a major options barrier and, of course, makes for good headlines. Technical Support Levels and Consolidation Boundaries – If we do rally from here, we might be looking at a move to the 200-day EMA, but we’ll just have to wait and see if that plays out. That would be the top of the consolidation that we’ve been in for a couple of weeks now. I think gold, much like many other markets right now, simply doesn’t know what to do, and that makes a certain amount of sense because it seems like risk is all over the place. I suspect we will see $4,000 offer support. If we get closer to that area and start to bounce, it could be a nice short-term buying opportunity. Silver Continues to See Pressures Early – Silver drops as risk appetite crumbles early on Tuesday, with the Iranians claiming they will administer the Strait of Hormuz going forward. Silver remains volatile overall, so position sizing is crucial. Technical Analysis – The silver market has fallen a bit during the trading session here on Tuesday as it now looks as if we are trying to test the $60 level. The $60 level is a pretty significant psychological barrier from what I can see, and I do think that you have a situation where traders are probably going to be very interested in seeing whether or not we can blow through there. This is a level that a lot of headlines will be made if and when it happens. Key Technical Levels and Market Correlation – If we rally from here, then you have the 200-day EMA at $67.75 as a little bit of a barrier. I am watching for a bounce; it would make a certain amount of sense here, but we’ll just have to see how risk appetite goes. If we break through $60, though, we’re probably heading to $50 at that point. The $50 level being hit would be a big deal and could cause panic from the bulls at that point. The correlation between lower interest rates and silver rising seems to be breaking down a bit, so do keep that in mind. Ultimately, I think you have to look at this as a market that is doing everything it can to find a bottom. The question at this point in time is whether or not it can. I suspect that this is going to come down to whether or not things deteriorate even further in the Middle East, and any reaction in the interest rate markets.
On the day gold closed down $52.00 at $4129.90, and silver closed down $3.51 at $62.02.
On Wednesday (6/24/26) the price of gold followed yesterday’s decline as the bulls seem to be running for cover again today as gold tests support around $3973.00. There are of course several things which suggest even lower prices are in the making as the talk of fresh record highs this year is placed on the back burner and traders brace for steady to perhaps higher interest rates. One reason behind this bearish mayhem is simply that the Dollar Index has moved 2 full points higher this week and will likely remain higher in the longer term. A second reason being that peace talks are cooling the geopolitical situation between Iran and the United States. Traders see support just under $3900.00 and central banks remain buyers so a collapse at these prices is not likely. But talk of new highs this year is in the rear view mirror as safe haven demand weakens. This past month gold has moved from $4600.00 through $4100.00, suggesting that even further losses may be in the making. It is somewhat curious that this generally lower bearish wave has not spurred large selling of gold or silver bullion. Even our IRA accounts remain steady.
Reuters – Gold falls below $4,000/oz on strong dollar, hawkish Fed signals – Spot gold prices slipped below a key psychological level of $4,000 per ounce level for the first time since November 2025 on Wednesday, under pressure from a firmer U.S. dollar and growing expectations that interest rates will remain elevated. The U.S. dollar firmed, making dollar-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies. Traders have ramped up bets on U.S. interest rate hikes this year after the U.S. central bank struck a hawkish tone at its latest policy meeting and as fears of inflationary pressures stemming from the Iran war persisted. “The market pricing a rate hike as soon as September due to a hawkish Fed, a surging dollar at 13-month highs combined with lower inflation expectations are putting pressure on precious metals,” Tai Wong, an independent metals trader, said. “For gold, there is support just under $3,900 and central bank purchases continue, so a collapse is unlikely, but expect a potentially long period of consolidation as the gold trade is now out of favor,”. Gold becomes less attractive to investors when interest rates rise because it offers no yield. Spot gold, which scaled a record peak of $5,594.82 in January, has since shed more than $1,500 an ounce. ING analysts cut their gold forecasts, now expecting prices to average $4,300 an ounce in the third quarter of 2026 and $4,600 in the fourth, compared with their previous projections of $4,850 and $5,000.
On the day gold closed down $139.60 at $3990.30, and silver closed down $3.97 at $58.05.
On Thursday (6/25/26) – In early trading gold tested support around $3972.00 and then bounced higher into the green testing overhead resistance around $4032.00. So today looks like a plus for bullish sentiment. To some degree inflationary expectations are easing and bargain hunting may be providing encouragement to holders of bullion gold and silver. Still, I would not call this a turnaround in a market which has generally trended lower, as the Middle East peace talks gain traction. This feels more like the bullish forces which sent gold higher as tension between the United States and Iran ramped up safe haven demand. Still, with the oddsmakers claiming that the chance of an interest rate hike being 75% this year, higher gold prices seem unlikely. That being said – trusting an agreement between Iran and the US, brokered by the President should be approached with suspicion. Gold finished the day strongly in the green.
Reuters (Anjana Anil) – Gold rises as inflation data sends dollar, yields lower – Gold prices reversed course and edged higher on Thursday after a U.S. inflation reading came largely in line with expectations, easing some concerns about imminent Federal Reserve rate hikes and pushing the dollar and Treasury yields lower. Spot gold was up 0.7% at $4,029.09 an ounce as of 9:15 a.m. EDT (1315 GMT) after falling as much as 1% earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for August delivery rose 0.9% to $4,045.20 per oz. “PCE data looks like it came in line mostly with expectations. At this point, it’s part of the reason why gold is relatively level-headed today,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. The U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index surged 4.1% in the 12 months through May, the largest increase and first reading above 4.0% since April 2023. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast PCE inflation advancing 4.1%. The U.S. dollar erased gains to turn lower after the data, making greenback-priced bullion cheaper for overseas merchants. Treasury yields also edged lower. Markets see an 80% chance of a rate hike in December, compared with an 85% chance before the release of the PCE data and 61% chance before the Fed’s policy statement last week, the CME FedWatch data showed. “The main focal point will still remain inflationary pressures moving forward. That’s some of the reason why we’ve seen gold deteriorate over the course of the last several sessions,” Meger added. Gold prices fell below the $4,000 an ounce mark on Wednesday for the first time since November 2025, pressured by ramped up expectations of higher interest rates this year after the U.S. Federal Reserve struck a hawkish tone at its policy meeting last week. Despite being an inflation hedge, higher interest rates dampen bullion’s appeal as investors turn to yield-bearing assets. Meanwhile, oil prices fell to pre-war levels, as expectations of more supply from the Middle East outweighed demand concerns as an accord agreed last week to end the U.S.-Israeli war has allowed the resumption of traffic through the strait. Spot silver added 2.2% to $58.68 per ounce and platinum climbed 1.8% to $1,606.09. Palladium rose 2.7% to $1,199.47.
On the day gold closed up $40.20 at $4030.50, and silver closed up $0.30 at $58.35.
On Friday (6/26/26) – I would not call the nice jump to the upside in gold this morning a game changer, especially in the short term, but it could create some bullish fireworks next week if prices are spurred higher over fresh safe haven buying created by rising tensions in the Middle East. It is interesting to note, however, that gold began to trade at a premium in India this week for the first time in a month and half. I’m not exactly ready to dance around in our parking lot but this latest bounce, which appears to reclaim $4000.00 gold, certainly brightens our physical trade. All that being said we saw some big boy sellers across our trading desk last night.
Reuters (Sukanya Mitra) – Gold gains as dollar weakens; still on track for fourth straight weekly loss – Gold edged higher on Friday as the dollar weakened and expectations of U.S. interest rate hikes eased slightly following inflation data, though prices were still on track for a fourth consecutive weekly decline. Spot gold was up 0.51% to $4,046.70 per ounce by 9:39 a.m. EDT (1339 GMT). U.S. gold futures for August delivery rose 0.35% to $4,061.40 per ounce. The U.S. dollar eased from recent highs after the release of the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge on Thursday. The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index surged 4.1% in the 12 months through May, matching economists’ forecasts in a Reuters poll. Traders are pricing in about a 60% chance of a U.S. rate hike in September, lower than an earlier expectation of 64%, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Gold is seeing a modest rebound after coming under selling pressure earlier this week, said Jim Wyckoff, a market analyst at American Gold Exchange. Higher interest rates and tighter monetary policy reduce the appeal of bullion, as they tend to boost bond yields and increase returns on interest-bearing assets. Spot gold hit more than a seven-month low earlier this week and prices were down 2.6% for the week. TD Securities said in a note that, given gold’s inverse relationship with both higher oil prices and a stronger U.S. dollar, sustained strength in energy markets could put further downward pressure on the precious metal in the months ahead. Gold started trading at a premium in India this week for the first time in a month and a half, as a price correction lifted buying, while demand stayed subdued in China, the top consumer. Among other precious metals, spot silver rose 0.42% to $58.1109 per ounce. Platinum gained 0.21% to $1,604.45 and palladium jumped 1.25% to $1,199.25.
On the day gold closed up $48.20 at $4078.70, and silver closed up $0.87 at $59.22.
Platinum closed up $29.20 at $1630.90, and palladium closed up $28.80 at 1209.00.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,023.00 to $4,045.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,122.00 and then $4,170.85. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $3,959.08, with deeper downside targets at $3,886.46 and then $3,850.00. First resistance is seen at $4,045.00 and then at $4,122.00. First support is seen at $3,959.08 and then at $3,886.46. Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $58.77 to $61.55 area, with a move above that zone targeting $62.00 and then $72.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $55.40, with deeper downside targets at $51.64 and then $48.97. First resistance is seen at $58.77 and then at $61.55. Next support is seen at $55.40 and then at $51.64.
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