Commentary for Thursday, June 18, 2026 – Today gold closed down $134.80 at $4224.10, and silver closed down $4.44 at $66.26. It has been a tough road for the gold bulls these past 3 months as it has struggled against a background of generally rising interest rates. So, for now the price of gold will have to take a back seat to rising Middle East tension and a problematic relationship between Iran and the United States. In the past 90 days the price of gold has moved between $4000.00 and $4800.00, trending generally lower since late April. In my mind it is a pleasant surprise that gold is holding above $4000.00 but less optimistic traders will have to now consider whether support will hold around $3500.00. Which was its price a year ago. We will be closed June 19th, known as Juneteenth National Independence Day. It is a federal holiday in the United States. Last Friday gold closed at $4215.00, and silver closed at $67.86. On the week gold was higher by $9.10, and silver was down $1.60.
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On Monday (6/15/26) the price of gold jumped higher as Hormuz risk shifts from oil shock to rate relief according to Kitco. Spot gold prices are firmer and spot silver prices are sharply higher in early U.S. trading Monday, as the U.S.-Iran framework deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz cut crude prices, eased inflation-risk pricing and softened the U.S. dollar. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,336.20 an ounce, up 2.79%, while spot silver was trading near $70.670, up 4.07% on the session. This is good news for the bulls because gold closed up $125.00 last Friday and silver followed – up $4.00. The announced peace deal between the US and Iran is the driving force, but whether this newfound “friendly” lasts remains to be seen.
FXEmpire (James Hyerczyk) – Gold Rally Builds as Iran Deal Cuts Rate Hike Bets – Gold price outlook turns bullish as the Iran deal drives oil lower, weakens the dollar, and supports Fed easing hopes. Gold Surges as Iran Peace Deal Crushes Crude – Spot Gold (XAUUSD) gapped to a near one-week high Monday, hitting $4,347.54 by 12:52 GMT, up $128.98 or 3.06%. The U.S. and Iran reached a preliminary peace framework and crude collapsed on the news. This is the gold-specific chain reaction running in real time. Lower crude pulls inflation expectations down, rate hike bets come off, and Spot Gold runs. Not because of safe-haven demand. Because the rate math changed. Iran Deal Took Crude Off the Table – U.S. and Iranian officials announced a framework agreement aimed at ending the conflict and reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Pakistan’s Prime Minister Sharif said the formal signing is expected in Switzerland on Friday. June WTI crude oil dropped roughly 5% on the session. Spot Brent crude oil fell toward $82.90 a barrel. I’ve seen this before. Crude spikes for weeks on war risk, the entire inflation narrative gets built around it, and then one headline takes it all out. That is what happened Monday. Months of elevated crude keeping the Fed pinned hawkish got repriced in a single session. CME FedWatch data shows December rate hike expectations dropped to roughly 53% from 69% just one week ago. Fed funds futures still imply better than 98% odds the Fed holds at 3.50% to 3.75% this week but the forward curve is what moved and that is what Spot Gold is trading. The bond market confirmed it. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield fell more than 2 basis points to 4.459%. The 2-Year U.S. Treasury yield dropped over 3 basis points to 4.054%. The 30-Year U.S. Treasury yield edged lower to 4.958%. All three moving lower on the same session tells you the repricing is broad, not just the short end adjusting. Spot Gold (XAUUSD) does not fight falling yields. It rides them. U.S. Dollar Index Weakness Stacked on Top – The U.S. Dollar Index hovered near a 10-day low as the peace framework pulled safe-haven flows out of the dollar. The euro climbed to around $1.1610. The British pound traded near $1.3423. The Japanese yen held relatively stable near 160. A weaker U.S. Dollar Index makes Spot Gold cheaper for every buyer outside the United States and that bid was visible all session. Currency markets are cautiously optimistic but the formal agreement has not been signed and Iran’s nuclear program is still on the table. Those are real risks sitting underneath this move. If the deal falls apart before Friday, crude reverses higher and everything that drove Monday’s rally runs the other direction. Central Banks Set the Next Test – The Fed, Bank of Japan, Bank of England, and Reserve Bank of Australia all announce policy decisions this week. The Fed is the one Spot Gold cares about. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s tone on inflation after a 5% crude drop is what the market is waiting for. If he sounds even slightly less hawkish, traders will pull more rate expectations off the table and that gives Spot Gold another leg higher. Policy uncertainty and central bank reserve diversification are still working in the background as medium-term support. But near-term this is a rate trade. My read on this is that the bullish setup holds as long as the peace framework stays intact and rate hike expectations keep coming down. One hawkish surprise from Warsh or a collapse in the Iran talks and this reverses fast. The level the charts are pointing at and what the market needs to hold is all in the technical section below. Daily Spot Gold Technical Analysis – In a rare move, Spot Gold gapped higher on Monday. The move turned $4023.87 into a new main bottom. Despite today’s strength, the main trend is still down with the market still facing headwinds at the 200-day moving average, the Bull/Bear line, a long-term Fibonacci level and the 50-day moving average. After today’s gap opening, the rally stalled at $4347.58, which suggests traders may be questioning valuation. One thing that was missing for months were traders who were willing to chase higher prices or aggressively take out offers. At today’s intraday high of $4347.58, the market is asking traders to aggressively buy a new high, more than $300 higher than it was just two days ago. So essentially, the “chase” will determine whether the market moves higher quickly. At its current price, it is well below the major resistance so technically, it has room to run. The other way to play gold if you think taking out offers is too risky, is to wait for a 50% to 61.8% correction. The current short-term range is $4023.87 to $4347.58. Its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone is $4185.72 to $4147.53. Keep in mind that both trading strategies carry counter-trend risks. But if you believe the first leg up from a major low is just short-covering then waiting for the pullback may be your best strategy. Silver Jumps Again on Monday as Peace Seems Closer – The silver market jumped at the open on Monday, as traders continue to watch the potential for peace play out in the Middle East. At this point, the markets are waiting to see if a deal is reached on Friday. Technical Analysis – The silver market has gapped to kick off the trading session on Monday for the second session in a row, as we are now looking at a potential framework agreement being signed on Friday between the Americans and the Iranians. That, of course, has put a little bit of pressure on rates, and as rates drop, typically speaking, silver will benefit from that. That being said, we also have the 50-day EMA above. We are a little stretched so I would be hesitant to chase silver at this point. Short-term pullbacks could open up the possibility of buying opportunities with the 200-day EMA underneath, offering a potential buying opportunity and a potential support level, but we’ll just have to wait and see how that plays out. This is an area I will be watching closely over the next few weeks. The market, I think longer-term, is going to be looking at a potential consolidation area between $60 on the bottom and $90 on the top. Ultimately, this is a market that I think just got a little overextended to the downside. Now it’s reacting a little bit too strongly to the upside. I think looking for pullbacks and trading on the right-hand side of the V on a bounce is probably how I’ll trade this market. At this point, the most important thing is to make sure your position size is reasonable in this environment of volatility.
On the day gold closed up $113.00 at $4328.00, and silver closed up $2.21 at $70.07.
On Tuesday (6/16/26) gold looked unstable considering the big move to the upside yesterday. Traders tested support ($4311.00) twice and overhead resistance three times. Still, gold struggled to settle only mildly to the upside for the day. To me, this kind of trade presents a degree of uncertainty in bullish sentiment. Perhaps suggesting further downside in gold, as the world takes a breath to consider the hold Iran still has on the Strait of Hormuz. Investors should consider the Strait deal, on or under the table, a change in the geopolitical focus. It could push oil prices lower, suggesting the Fed is less likely to lower interest rates. A minus for the bulls.
Reuters (Anjana Anil) – Gold rises over 1% as US-Iran peace deal optimism eases rate hike bets – Gold prices rose more than 1% on Tuesday as expectations of an interest rate hike from the U.S. Federal Reserve this year eased, following an interim U.S.–Iran peace deal that sent oil prices and inflation fears lower. Spot gold was up 0.3% at $4,318.89 per ounce as of 10:30 a.m. ET (1430 GMT). Prices touched their highest level since June 5 in the previous session. U.S. gold futures delivery added 0.2% to $4,358.90. The interim deal announced by U.S. President Donald Trump would extend a tenuous ceasefire agreed upon in April by another 60 days and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran has effectively blocked since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in February. “Supporting the market over the last two sessions has been the prospects of an agreement between the U.S. and Iran in regard to ending the war,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. “What we’ve seen as a result of that has been short-term interest rates drop, energy prices come down, and less likelihood that the Fed will need to raise interest rates later this year.” Brent crude futures have dropped below $80 a barrel for the first time since early March, after sinking nearly 5% on Monday after the announcement of the interim deal. Markets have pared back expectations for a Fed rate hike in December to 60% from around 70% earlier, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Bullion has been under pressure since the onset of the U.S.-Israeli war against Iran, as rising oil prices fuel expectations of prolonged high interest rates. Despite being an inflation hedge, non-yielding gold suffers in a high interest rate environment. Market participants are now awaiting a series of central bank meetings this week, including the Fed’s rate decision on Wednesday, the first under new Chair Kevin Warsh. Spot silver fell 0.7% to $69.55 per ounce. Platinum gained 1.8% to $1,799.20, and palladium climbed 0.3% to $1,352.25.
On the day gold closed up $2.90 at $4330.90, and silver closed down $0.17 at $69.90.
On Wednesday (6/17/26) the price of gold was choppy and in the red in early trading, testing support around $4320.00 but traders soon bought this weakness which pushed gold into the green testing overhead resistance around $4370.00. On the day gold finished nicely in the green but inexplicably moved strongly into the red in the aftermarket, down about $100.00. Still, reliable support looks like $4300.00. But traders will remain cautious, looking for details on the fresh U.S. – Iran agreement on travel through the Strait of Hormuz. Trump said that this outcome must be to his liking or the U.S. may resume a bombing campaign. So, the Middle East continues to be the pricing lynch pin – higher or lower. As I have been saying many of these “deals” seem to be under the table, so tensions remain high and outcomes uncertain. I would not be a big seller of gold or silver bullion until the international picture clears and news becomes more reliable.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold holds ground with spotlight on Fed meet, US-Iran deal details – Gold prices held steady on Wednesday as investors awaited the U.S. central bank’s first policy decision under new Chair Kevin Warsh, along with further details of the U.S.-Iran peace agreement for further direction. Spot gold was little changed at $4,325.59 per ounce by 8:20 a.m. EDT (1220 GMT). U.S. gold futures were down 0.2% at $4,345.00. The Federal Reserve’s rate decision, policy statement and updated policymaker projections will be released at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT). Warsh, who replaced former Fed chief Jerome Powell last month, will hold a press conference half an hour later. “U.S. rates are expected to remain unchanged, but the real focus will be on Kevin Warsh. Any whiff of hawkishness may weigh on gold which remains highly sensitive to interest rate expectations,” said Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM. “Looking at the charts, prices may push higher toward $4,350 if $4,300 proves reliable support. Weakness below $4,300 could trigger a selloff back toward the $4250–$4200 per ounce support area.” Spot gold touched a near six-month low last week as inflation fears stoked by the Iran conflict boosted expectations of U.S. rate hikes. While gold is often seen as a hedge against inflation, elevated interest rates tend to pressure bullion, as it offers no yield. Prices rebounded after the U.S. and Iran agreed on a framework deal. However, U.S. President Donald Trump said that the agreement reached this week with Iran was not final, and that he could resume a bombing campaign if he did not like it. “Gold and silver could hit a cyclical low between late 2026 and early 2027. In our baseline scenario, gold could trade at an average of around $4,000 per ounce by the end of the year, whilst silver could settle at around $60,” Intesa Sanpaolo economist Daniela Corsini said in a note. Among other metals, spot silver fell 0.5% to $69.84 per ounce. Platinum lost 0.9% to $1,787.15 and palladium fell 0.2% at $1,349.11.
On the day gold closed up $28.00 at $4358.90, and silver closed up $0.80 at $70.70.
On Thursday (6/18/26) – While it’s obvious that gold is trying to get back on its feet, the outcome is cloudy at best for two reasons. First, the Fed will most certainly not lower interest rates anytime soon as inflation remains a serious problem. And second higher interest rates are bearish for the metals. The problematical peace deal between Iran and the United States is a plate of scrambled eggs because it probably means lower oil prices but does not necessarily mean lower inflation numbers. To my mind, therefore, the most likely scenario for bullion investors is that the price of gold and silver will continue lower. In the short term that number for gold looks like $4000.00 and for silver something around $60.00. I would not be surprised to see both metals hold up around these numbers, but if either breaks to the downside at these cheap prices it may open up further weaknesses in the short term. In the long term look for further record prices, especially if the Fed is eventually forced to lower interest rates.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Markets Drop Heading to a Holiday Session – Gold gives back its attempt to recover early on Thursday, as we are watching a potential shift in the overall behavior of this market. Technical Analysis – The gold market gapped lower to kick off the trading session on Thursday, only to turn around and fill that gap pretty quickly. That being said, we’ve also given back those gains, and it now looks like gold is ready to roll over. I think ultimately this is a market that goes looking to the $4,000 level, an area that will remain important. It’s a large, round, psychologically significant figure and an area that has proved itself to be important previously. If you turn around and break above the 200-day EMA, then you could see the gold market go looking to the 50-day EMA. All things being equal, this is a market is trying to figure out where we are heading next. Interest Rate Correlations and Holiday Liquidity – Interest rates dropping, ironically enough, has been a potential bullish sign for gold, but I also recognize that the rates dropping and gold dropping is an interesting correlation because suddenly things are changing. With that and the fact that gold is still failing with dropping rates, I think that tells you that gold is perhaps going to struggle. Whether or not we break down below the $4,000 level, then we could send this market down to the $3,500 level.
Ultimately, you should keep in mind that the Friday session is Juneteenth in the United States, and that, of course, has major influences on how things are going to behave because the markets will be closed for a big chunk of the day. With this, I think people just aren’t willing to hang on to gold with a 3-day weekend coming up and the news flow creating who knows what. Silver Drops Despite Falling Rates – Silver markets roll over during the Thursday session, despite the fact that the interest rates are falling in the United States. This represents a shift in the overall market behavior. Technical Analysis – The silver market has been positive during the early part of the session, but the $70 level is offering significant resistance. With interest rates dropping and silver dropping, that is perhaps showing a bit of a regime change, as it’s possible inflation has started to peak. If that’s the case, it’s interesting that silver rolls over anyway. Key Support Levels and Holiday Liquidity – Now, I think there’s plenty of support underneath at the $60 level, and I’m not necessarily looking at this as an opportunity to find value. With this being the case, the $60 level I think is crucial. If we were to break down below there, it would be a very negative turn of events. It’s also worth noting that there’s a gap from Friday of last week that has yet to be filled, and that could send this market down to the $64 level. I’m not a big fan of necessarily getting aggressive here. We are heading into a 3-day weekend in the United States, and with the Juneteenth celebrations on Friday, that means the markets won’t be open the entire day on Friday. There’s just some outside early electronic trading, not the main liquidity that we’re used to seeing. So, some of this might just simply be people taking their gains and going home for the weekend as the holiday can expose you to big losses suddenly. I do think there are plenty of buyers underneath. I’m not willing to short this aggressively, but it does look like it could drift a little lower at this point, with the overall weakness in the silver market.
On the day gold closed down $134.80 at $4224.10, and silver closed down $4.44 at $66.26.
Platinum closed down $85.50 at $1705.20, and palladium closed down $74.60 at $1274.50.
Friday (6/19/26) is Juneteenth or sometimes called Freedom Day. This is a national holiday. Wall Street, commodity markets, banks, and USPS are closed.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,280 to $4,320 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,364 and then the $4,575 descending-channel high. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,240, with deeper downside targets at $4,200 and then $4,180. First resistance is seen at $4,280 and then at $4,320. First support is seen at $4,240 and then at $4,200. Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $69.08 to $70.00 resistance zone, with a move above that zone targeting $72.00 and then $72.47. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $67.00, with deeper downside targets at $66.00 and then $65.00. First resistance is seen at $69.08 and then at $70.00. Next support is seen at $67.00 and then at $66.00.
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