Commentary for Friday, June 12, 2026 – Today gold closed up $124.70 at $4215.00, and silver closed up $3.97 at $67.86. The bulls are smiling this morning as gold skyrocketed higher, touching $4225.00 in the early morning and then testing support around $4180.00 as the more prudent considered the latest inflation numbers which appear to be cooling to some degree. Another crosswind – the Hormuz premiums are unwinding as President Trump called off planned strikes against Iran. Investors are growing cautious, especially in the short term. Kitco – “Gold is not drawing a clean haven bid because the same headlines reducing conflict risk are also lowering oil-driven inflation expectations, while silver is caught between lower yields and weaker industrial-cycle signaling from crude.” Depending on which way the wind is blowing, holding a large bullion position could become problematical in the shorter term. Just a reminder that we will be closed June 19th, known as Juneteenth National Independence Day. It is a federal holiday in the United States. Last Friday gold closed at $4337.10, and silver closed at $68.94. On the week gold was down $122.10, and silver was down $1.08.
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On Monday (6/8/26) the price of gold continues to try and find its feet as it appears interest rates will remain stable at these higher levers, instead of moving lower as once predicted. Of course, higher interest rates are bearish for investors holding gold, so traders see even lower prices near term, with the rate of decline slowing if Trump decides to retaliate in the near term. But silver bullion commentary remains solid so I’m not expecting much downside in the next few months.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Rates Pressure Market – Gold continues to see pressures from the bond markets on Monday, as we are watching both the gold chart, and the ten-year yield. Technical Analysis – The gold market has struggled with the $4,600 level, an area that, quite frankly, I think continues to be very important here as traders look at it from a historical perspective. It’s been both support and resistance. I also recognize that we have a market that is watching the 10-year yield, and it is starting to try to at least turn a little bit higher during the session. That’s part of the negativity that we have seen, but it’s not exactly screaming higher. So, I think what we’re going to end up doing more likely than not is just hang out here in this general vicinity and wait to see whether or not the bond markets will be an issue or if they will start to work in our favor again. Technical Indicators and Market Outlook – All things being equal, I do believe that the 200-day EMA below should continue to offer support, while the 50-day EMA above, which is above the $4,600 level, could be a major ceiling that might be difficult to break out of. All things being equal though, I do believe long term gold should do quite well. I think there will be a lot of demand for gold because of the possibility of a major rate cutting cycle coming down the road once we get through the shocks that occurred in the Middle East with the war and, of course, once we get a little bit of clarity with that entire situation. I think that causes the bond market to relax a bit and, in turn, should drive the price of gold higher. If we break down below the 200-day EMA, we could drop somewhat significantly. I think at that point in time you’re probably looking at rates rising rapidly. So, keep an eye on both the 10-year yield in America and the gold market at the same time. Silver Continues to See Support – Silver continues to see noisy trading on Monday as we are looking at interest rate levels that are important and possibly could cause a bigger move overall. At this point, I like silver long term but see a lot of bumps ahead. Technical Analysis – Silver has found itself drifting lower to kick off the trading week but has since turned around to show signs of life, and I think at this point in time, you have to watch the $80 level very closely. The $80 level has been both support and resistance in the past, and I think a lot of people will be watching this level very closely. If we can break above there, then the market more likely than not will go looking to the $90 level as it is the top of the larger and longer-term consolidation range. Support Levels and Interest Rate Influence – Below we have the $70 level offering support with the 200-day EMA just below there offering support as well. I think this is a market that continues to be noisy, but I do like buying dips. I think that the lack of supply for silver will be a major driver of where we go next, so be aware of that potential issue going forward. If we were to break down below the 200-day EMA, then you could see a drop significantly from there to at the $60 level, but the only way I see that happening is if interest rates start to scream higher. So, watch that 10-year yield in the United States. All things being equal though, longer term, I am very bullish on silver in the long term but recognize that the interest rates will continue to be a stumbling block at times.
On the day gold closed down $1.20 at $4335.90, and silver closed down $0.51 at $68.43.
On Tuesday (6/9/26) the price of gold and silver continue to lose ground as traders worry about rate hikes to combat sticky inflation numbers. It also underscores the continued weakness of this trade because prices will likely move to the next support region around $4360.00. And I think insiders will continue to fret over this perhaps developing bearish trend. Across our trading desk it appears the public is not buying or selling because finding a “value” number is difficult or perhaps impossible because the Middle East remains unstable. Still, investors are not jumping out the window as old timers remain pragmatic about even higher prices over the long term.
FXEmpire (Vladimir Zernov) – Gold Tests New Lows As Pullback Continues – Silver and platinum markets are under strong pressure in today’s trading session. Gold Is Losing Ground As Traders Worry About Rate Hikes – Gold tests new lows despite falling Treasury yields and weaker dollar as traders remain bearish. The yield of 2-year Treasuries pulled back below the 4.13% level as traders reacted to the strong pullback in the oil markets. Oil prices are down by 3% despite Trump’s recent comment on Iran. Trump said that Iranians shot down an Apache helicopter, which was patrolling over the Strait of Hormuz. He noted that two pilots were safe and uninjured and added that the U.S. “must, of necessity, respond to this attack”. Interestingly, traders do not believe that Iran’s actions will destroy the potential deal between the U.S. and Iran. U.S. dollar is losing ground against a broad basket of currencies as traders focus on the pullback in Treasury yields. Weaker dollar is bullish for gold and other dollar-denominated commodities as it makes them cheaper for buyers who have other currencies. However, weaker dollar did not boost gold markets as traders remained focused on hawkish Fed policy outlook. In addition, it looks that some central banks are selling gold to provide support to local currencies. From a big picture point of view, traders remain bearish as they believe that global central banks will raise rates to fight inflation. Higher interest rates are bearish for gold that pays no interest. Gold declined below the support at $4350 – $4370 and is trying to settle below the $4250. In case this attempt is successful, gold will head towards the next support of $4180 – $4200.
On the day gold closed down $75.90 at $4260.00, and silver closed down $3.34 at $65.09.
On Wednesday (6/10/26) the price of gold rose in early trading $4228.00 but onlookers sold this small rally, which pushed prices even lower as gold tested support at $4116.00. With May inflation numbers holding above 4% there may be little chance of US interest rates soon easing as the FOMC continues to battle inflation. Ernest Hoffman (Kitco News) “Gold is trading firmly below its 200-day moving average as labor market strength and rising inflation reinforce the higher-for-longer rate narrative, which are supporting bond yields and the dollar, with $4,075/oz gold now in play, but long-term fundamentals remain supportive, according to Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. In a new update published Tuesday, Hansen noted that gold’s slide below the 200 DMA constitutes an important setback that goes beyond technical damage. “While the long-term bullish case remains intact, the market is currently being driven by a very different set of forces,” he said. “Since mid-April, gold has increasingly traded as a victim of an energy-driven inflation scare, with investors focusing on rising oil prices, higher inflation expectations, stronger bond yields and a firmer dollar rather than the longer-term themes that helped drive prices to record highs earlier this year.” Hansen said the latest setback in U.S.-Iran negotiations has only reinforced this dynamic. “As long as the conflict continues to threaten energy supplies and keep inflation risks elevated, investors are likely to remain focused on the prospect of higher-for-longer interest rates rather than gold’s traditional role as a portfolio diversifier,” he wrote, adding that the current supply-driven energy shock does the opposite. It lifts inflation expectations, supports the dollar and reduces the scope for monetary easing.”
Reuters (Anushree Ashish Mukherjee) – Gold trims losses on softer-than-expected US inflation data – Gold pared losses on Wednesday but remained near more than a two-month low after the release of cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data, while traders shifted their focus to the risk of a wider regional war involving the U.S. and Iran. Spot gold was down 2.6% at $4,151.86 per ounce by 9:02 a.m. EDT (1302 GMT), its lowest level since March 23. Bullion fell 3% earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for August delivery shed 2.6% to $4,174.70. “Asset markets, including gold, (are) seeing a modest relief rally with core CPI a tenth (of a percentage point) below consensus,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. The U.S. Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index excluding food and energy items gained 0.2% on a monthly basis after rising 0.4% in April. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the core CPI would increase 0.3% on a monthly basis. Traders are currently pricing in about a 67% chance of a U.S. interest rate hike in December, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool.
The release on Thursday of the U.S. Producer Price Index will provide investors more data to gauge the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy stance. “Markets are in desperate need of some good news after strong payrolls on Friday and President (Donald) Trump’s threat earlier this morning that Iran “will pay the price” for not negotiating a deal,” Wong added. Trump said on Wednesday that Iran had taken too long to negotiate a deal and would now “have to pay the price.” Iran launched missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases in Jordan, Kuwait and Bahrain in retaliation for American strikes on Iranian targets around the Strait of Hormuz. Bullion has been under pressure since the start of the war in late February, as surging oil prices fuel fears of inflation and higher interest rates. While gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, higher rates typically weigh on the non-yielding metal. “Despite recent price consolidation, inflation, central bank buying and currency debasement concerns continue to support gold,” Paul Wong, a market strategist at Sprott Asset Management, said in a note. Spot silver fell 1.1% to $64.63 per ounce, platinum dropped 2.7% to $1,680.83, and palladium rose 0.9% to $1,233.00.
On the day gold closed down $151.80 at $4108.20, and silver closed down $0.49 at $64.60.
On Thursday (6/11/26) – The price of gold this morning was a disappointment for the bulls after yesterday’s large loss. Still, the price of gold closed slightly in the red but soared in the aftermarket. To me this amounts to a psychological reversal and it’s tough to believe gold is still left footed. At any rate, even the pros are scratching their heads as to whether traders are waiting for further downside given that interest rates remain steady. Hot inflation or not the Fed will likely remain resolute and hawkish. But, at least for now $3500.00 gold is off the table. And gold is becoming more stable above $4000.00. A nice bullish plus which presents the possibility that fresh record prices are at least in the making even before the holiday season.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Traders are Eyeing $4000 – The gold market fell right away on Thursday but has since turned around to show signs of at least slowing down. At this point, the $4000 level is in focus. Technical Analysis – The gold market gapped lower, tried to rally, and then gave back gains as we continue to see a lot of noise coming out of the headlines, and of course, it has moved the bond markets. But what I find interesting, and this is really interesting to me, is that suddenly the negative correlation between rates and gold seems to be breaking down. For a long time, we’ve seen higher interest rates and lower gold prices. But now, we’re starting to see gold fall over the last couple of days as rates are dropping. The $4,000 level is an area that comes into focus almost immediately now and could offer a bit of psychological support. Quite frankly, when you look at the longer-term trend, you could make a real argument for a return to $3,500. And still, you’d be talking about yet a minor pullback, as it were, in the longer-term trend. Long-Term Outlook and Currency Dynamics – While I don’t necessarily hate the idea of owning gold, the reality is that you probably have some time to pick up gold. If you want to short gold, that’s okay, but I’m not a big fan of that. I think longer-term gold will perform quite well. That recent melt-up that we had seen in 2025, I think, is a little bit of a harbinger of what probably comes down the road. But as things stand right now, everybody needs US dollars. And as long as that’s going to be the problem for most traders, then I think you are going to have to be somewhat ambivalent on gold. If we break below $4,000 level another $500 drop makes sense. If we bounce from here, maybe it’s a short-term bounce play that you can initiate, but I would not expect a turnaround without some type of external headline.
On the day gold closed down $17.90 at $4090.30, and silver closed down $0.71 at $63.89.
On Friday (6/12/26) the price of gold finished substantially higher into the weekend, but this trade is feeling jumpy to me, for lack of a better word. There is enough positive news to build a bullish argument, and enough bearish news to create confusion. Caution will likely win the day but short term trading has become dicey. Most long term investors still like the safe haven aspect of both gold and silver. But not all, as a few are taking profits across our trading desk. Insiders understand that no one holds all the cards in the Middle East. Iran has become a more problematical player over the last few years, which should underpin safe haven demand.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Jumps at Open on Friday – The gold market has gapped higher on Friday, as traders continue to worry about headlines out of the Middle East. Holding into the weekend will be dangerous in either direction. Technical Analysis – The gold market has gapped higher to kick off the trading session on Friday, which probably shouldn’t be too big of a surprise. There are a lot of different headlines going around, one of which, of course, was that Trump has said they have canceled the bombing plans of the Iranians, but I think also you have to keep in mind there’s probably some short covering heading into the weekend because who knows what comes out as a headline, and that could throw the bond markets into disarray yet again. So, with that, I think you need to be very cautious. I think it makes sense that if you were short of gold, once we got close to the $4,000 level, it was probably time to start looking for some type of exit. Silver Jumps into the Weekend on Short Covering? – Silver jumped at the open on Friday, as potential short covering has hit the market. It makes a lot of sense, as there are potential headlines coming out of the Middle East that will influence interest rates. Technical Analysis – Silver initially plunged during the trading session on Thursday, but we have seen a turnaround, and it does look like we are going to see a bit of a bounce back. And it does make sense because the $60 level has been crucial for some time. Bouncing from here opens up the possibility of a move to the 200-day EMA and a resistance barrier for the bulls in this market. I think you have to be very careful with your position size. It does look a little oversold, so I think maybe a little bit of a bounce over the next couple of days makes some sense. But if we give up the $60 level to the downside, that would be catastrophic. That probably opens up $50 as a potential target at this point. Technical Analysis and Market Outlook – I begin to question now whether or not we are in the midst of trying to expand the range, possibly down to the $60 level, with the $90 level above being the ceiling. This is a large range and therefore could offer a lot of opportunities. The demand for silver is much higher than the supply, which opens up the possibility of value being chased in the silver market eventually. This will all come down to risk appetite and interest rates. Interest rates in America continue to be a major driver, so keep an eye on the bond market. If yields drop, silver should bounce, but if they spike, we could see further pressure on silver and other metals in general.
On the day gold closed up $124.70 at $4215.00, and silver closed up $3.97 at $67.86.
Platinum closed up $46.60 at $1709.20, and palladium closed up $41.60 at $1276.20.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,250.00 to $4,350.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,500.00 and then the $4,575.00 area. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,104.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,000.00 and then $3,900.00. First resistance is seen at $4,194.00 and then at $4,250.00. First support is seen at $4,154.00 and then at $4,104.00. Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $68.53 to $72.00 resistance zone, with a move above that zone targeting $72.47 and then $80.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $66.09, with deeper downside targets at $62.15 and then the $60.00 to $50.00 long-term buy zone. First resistance is seen at $68.53 and then at $72.00. Next support is seen at $66.09.
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