Commentary for Friday, June 5, 2026 – Today gold closed down $138.70 at $4337.10, and silver closed down $4.84 at $68.94. The bulls are handed another disappointing week as a strong jobs report suggests that the FOMC will be in no mood to lower interest rates anytime soon. Today’s read might seem a bit counterintuitive as the geopolitical situation between Iran and the United States continues to sour but in the end our economy is roaring which means that higher interest rates will tether the price of gold and silver. Gold has already broken down around its 200 day moving ($4400.00) so bargain hunters will have to dig deeper to estimate the next bargain hunting range. From a bearish technical point of view, insiders expect to see support around $4100.00. Last Friday gold closed at $4560.50, and silver closed at $75.62. On the week gold was down $223.40, and silver was down $6.68.
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On Monday (6/1/26) the price of gold dipped because of Hormuz uncertainty testing support at $4446.00 and finishing the day nicely in the red. So, investors should ask if bearish sentiment is growing for two reasons. First, insiders are beginning to believe overhead resistance at $4600.00 will remain a tough nut to crack. And second, because this speculation is based on short term interest rates, the FOMC is between a rock and hard place because inflation is not cooling, the Fed will continue to make inflation their number one concern. So, interest rates will remain “stuck”, and this bearish scenario will continue to grind gold prices lower.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Rates Pressure Market – Gold continues to see pressures from the bond markets on Monday, as we are watching both the gold chart, and the ten-year yield. Technical Analysis – The gold market has struggled with the $4,600 level, an area that, quite frankly, I think continues to be very important here as traders look at it from a historical perspective. It’s been both support and resistance. I also recognize that we have a market that is watching the 10-year yield, and it is starting to try to at least turn a little bit higher during the session. That’s part of the negativity that we have seen, but it’s not exactly screaming higher. So, I think what we’re going to end up doing more likely than not is just hang out here in this general vicinity and wait to see whether or not the bond markets will be an issue or if they will start to work in our favor again. Technical Indicators and Market Outlook – All things being equal, I do believe that the 200-day EMA below should continue to offer support, while the 50-day EMA above, which is above the $4,600 level, could be a major ceiling that might be difficult to break out of. All things being equal though, I do believe long term gold should do quite well. I think there will be a lot of demand for gold because of the possibility of a major rate cutting cycle coming down the road once we get through the shocks that occurred in the Middle East with the war and, of course, once we get a little bit of clarity with that entire situation. I think that causes the bond market to relax a bit and, in turn, should drive the price of gold higher. If we break down below the 200-day EMA, we could drop somewhat significantly. I think at that point in time you’re probably looking at rates rising rapidly. So, keep an eye on both the 10-year yield in America and the gold market at the same time. Silver Continues to See Support – Silver continues to see noisy trading on Monday as we are looking at interest rate levels that are important and possibly could cause a bigger move overall. At this point, I like silver long term but see a lot of bumps ahead. Technical Analysis – Silver has found itself drifting lower to kick off the trading week but has since turned around to show signs of life, and I think at this point in time, you have to watch the $80 level very closely. The $80 level has been both support and resistance in the past, and I think a lot of people will be watching this level very closely. If we can break above there, then the market more likely than not will go looking to the $90 level as it is the top of the larger and longer-term consolidation range. Support Levels and Interest Rate Influence – Below we have the $70 level offering support with the 200-day EMA just below there offering support as well. Ultimately, I think this is a market that continues to be very noisy, but I do like buying dips. I do think that the lack of supply for silver will continue to be a major driver of where we go next, so be aware of that potential issue going forward. If we were to break down below the 200-day EMA, then you could see a drop pretty significantly from there to at least the $60 level, but the only way I see that happening is if interest rates start to scream higher. So, watch that 10-year yield in the United States. All things being equal though, longer term, I am very bullish on silver in the long term but recognize that the interest rates will continue to be a stumbling block at times.
On the day gold closed down $85.30 at $4475.20, and silver closed down $0.61 at $75.01.
On Tuesday (6/2/26) gold offered the bulls a bit of good news as prices moved to daily highs of $4532.00 before settling somewhat and finishing the day mildly in the green. I think this is the result of some bargain hunting after gold fell out of bed yesterday, a weaker dollar, lower interest rates and geopolitical movement within the Middle East. Now don’t get me wrong, I would not bet the farm on this latest somewhat bullish news, but it does take some of the tension out of this trade and again opens the door to the possibility of higher prices between now and the holiday season. The public across our trading desk is still cautious of gold and silver in the short term.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Rallies as Rates Fall – Gold continues to move opposite of rates on Tuesday, as we are still in the same pattern with rates being the opposite of price action in the gold markets. Position sizing is crucial in this market as well. Technical Analysis – The gold market has rallied a bit during the early part of the trading session on Tuesday as the interest rates in the United States dropping continues to be a major helper for gold. This will more likely than not continue to be the case going forward. That being said, we are getting fairly close to the $4,600 level. The 4,600 level of course is an area that’s been important more than once, and as a result, I think we have to pay close attention to where we are going to go from here. Technical Barriers and Potential Upside – If we can break above the 4,600 level and the 50-day EMA, which is also a barrier, then we can really start to take off to the upside. Short-term pullbacks, I think at this juncture, end up being buying opportunities all the way down to the 200-day EMA. Again, keep an eye on those interest rates. The 10-year yield in America falling, of course, has helped quite nicely. But I also recognize that the market will eventually shift its focus. Right now, it’s all in the Middle East and that is what’s moving the interest rates. At this point, it will remain the same situation as far as I can tell. All things being equal, this is a market that, given enough time, goes higher, but I also think that it’s one of those situations where you need to be very cautious with your position size and just trade smaller and then perhaps try to build up as the market makes up its mind. Silver Price Forecast (Muhummad Umar) – Silver remains under pressure from Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, but improving relative strength against gold, the S&P 500, and Bitcoin suggests a stronger breakout setup may be forming. Silver prices remain trapped in between $72 and $95 as US Treasury yields and the US dollar continue to drive the short-term pressure. In my view, a break above $78.60 will show some signs of health, but a break below $70 will negate the short-term bullish picture. This article discusses the macro backdrop, technical levels, and relative strength signals from silver against gold, S&P 500, and Bitcoin.
On the day gold closed up $13.90 at $4489.10, and silver closed up $0.30 at $75.31.
On Wednesday (6/3/26) the price of gold continued to slide, testing support around $4428.00 as the price of crude oil jumped and tensions rise between Iran and the United States. Some independent traders believe that if this conflict intensifies, rising energy prices will fan inflation fires and the FOMC may be forced to raise interest rates sooner rather than later. Still, with the price of gold approaching $4500.00 it is difficult to call this trade a bargain even in the longer term because there are too many uncertainties relative to Iran’s nuclear intentions. And you don’t need to be Sherlock Holmes to understand that Benjamin Netanyahu’s television appearance today is laying the groundwork for further Israeli incursions in the Middle East.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold slips on bets of higher rates as war fuels inflation fears – Gold prices dipped on Wednesday, weighed down by expectations that war-driven inflation will keep interest rates elevated, while investors focused on developments in the Middle East and upcoming economic data. Spot gold fell 0.7% to $4,452.09 per ounce by 08:40 a.m. EDT (1240 GMT). U.S. gold futures slipped 0.9% to $4,480.50. Gulf hostilities flared again as Iranian attacks on Kuwait damaged its airport and injured dozens while the U.S. military carried out strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, with diplomacy to halt the war showing little sign of progress. “Gold’s activity is largely driven by heightened tensions between the United States and Iran,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. “As the conflict intensifies, rising energy prices are expected to lift inflation expectations. This could lead to higher interest rates, further strengthening the dollar and adding additional downward pressure on gold,” he added. Bullion is often seen as a safeguard against inflation, but it tends to become less attractive as a non-yielding asset in a high interest-rate environment. Oil prices rose, while the U.S. dollar was up for a third straight session. A stronger U.S. currency makes dollar-priced metals more expensive for holders of other currencies. On Tuesday, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh pledged to follow “the best of the Fed’s traditions” in an opening note as he starts his four-year term, while also promising a broad look at what might be done differently. Cleveland Federal Reserve President Beth Hammack said the U.S. central bank may need to raise rates soon should already-high inflation pressures continue to mount. Focus is also on the U.S. nonfarm payrolls data for May due on Friday to gauge the Fed’s monetary policy path. The ADP’s national employment report showed that U.S. private payrolls increased more than expected in May. Among other metals, spot silver fell 1.5% to $73.98 per ounce, platinum lost 1.4% to $1,908.95, and palladium was down 2.3% at $1,337.75.
On the day gold closed down $52.40 at $4436.70, and silver closed down $1.83 at $73.48.
On Thursday (6/4/26) – It appears investors are faced with another confusing day as last night’s ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon looks shaky at best, the likelihood being that both parties will go back to the drawing board. So goes the difficult, if not impossible job of building trust around Iran who seems set on controlling the Strait of Hormuz. In the early trade the price of gold moved to a session high of $4512.00 but quickly cooled testing $4446.00. Trump has already said that while talks are ongoing a deal is “not a simple thing”. And according to Pinsent Masons – “The EU has extended the scope of its sanction regime targeting Iran to allow designations of those impeding lawful transit passage and freedom of navigation, particularly in the Strait of Hormuz.” At the time of this writing, gold was higher by $47.00. A rather modest number if you consider Iran’s influence over the Strait continues to grow. And the House has just approved a war powers resolution that would halt U.S. military action against Iran.
Reuters (Anjana Anil) – Gold climbs as Middle East ceasefire hopes pressure dollar, bond yields – Gold prices gained more than 1% on Thursday as oil prices slipped on optimism over a potential end to the Iran conflict, which pressured the dollar and caused bond yields to fall. Spot gold was up 1.7% at $4,505.35 per ounce as of 9:05 a.m. EDT (1305 GMT). Reports of a ceasefire deal between Israel and Lebanon have pressured the dollar and bond yields, helping gold hold just above the important 200-day moving average, independent metals trader Tai Wong said. Israel and Lebanon said late on Wednesday they had agreed to implement a ceasefire, raising hopes for a deal between Washington and Tehran. Oil prices fell more than 3% on the news, amid hopes of a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The dollar eased 0.3%, making greenback-priced bullion more affordable for holders of other currencies, while lower yields on U.S. Treasuries, including the 10-year note, boosted gold’s attractiveness. “Record highs for gold this year seem increasingly unlikely unless we get a clean, lasting ceasefire with Iran that opens Hormuz, allowing energy prices to drop and markets to stop worrying about potentially higher rates,” Wong said. Gold, a traditional safe-haven asset, hit a record high of $5,594.82 per ounce on January 29. It has lost 16% since the beginning of the Iran conflict in late February. Elevated interest rates weigh on non-yielding bullion. Investors are now turning their attention to the release on Friday of the U.S. employment report for May. The data could shed some light on the health of the labor market, which could help guide the Federal Reserve’s future monetary policy path. Spot silver rose 3.1% to $74.96 per ounce, platinum gained 1.9% to $1,895.29, and palladium added 1.6% to $1,322.01.
On the day gold closed up $39.10 at $4475.80, and silver closed up $0.30 at $73.78.
On Friday (6/5/26) the price of gold toppled as gold tested support around $4300.00, sending the bulls to the woodshed. But I would not be surprised to see little physical selling as bearish storm clouds threaten safe haven demand. The business across our counter is typically quiet for larger gold investors who usually do not panic, even as they brace for further weakness. Because in the end, there is no replacement for bullion gold and silver as a shield against rising inflation over the long term. And the war in Iran is so problematical that even Trump offers no quick solution. My suggestion at this point is for investors to step away from buy or sell decisions in the short term. There does not seem to be a way to end the war in Iran which means safe haven demand may again become a driving factor. But patience is needed for this picture to further develop. In the meantime, gold prices ($4000.00) and silver prices ($70.00) offer investors tactical options.
Reuters (Anjana Anil) – Gold falls over 2% as robust US jobs data cements bets on higher rates – Gold fell more than 2% on Friday after a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates higher for longer amid inflation concerns fueled by the war in the Middle East. Spot gold was down 2.4% at $4,365.93 per ounce at 10:15 a.m. EDT (1415 GMT), having fallen about 3.8% this week so far. Bullion fell to its lowest level since March 26 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for August delivery fell 2.5% to $4,390.70. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 jobs in May after rising by an upwardly revised 179,000 in April, the U.S. Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said in its report. A Reuters poll had forecast a gain of 85,000 jobs after a previously reported rise of 115,000 in April. “We’ve got payrolls that came in fairly significantly over what was expected,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. “In light of the fact that we continue to have the war in Iran and very large energy prices and inflationary pressures, it makes it quite unlikely that the Fed is in any mood whatsoever to lower rates. The implication for gold here is that the cost of carry is getting quite high.” U.S. Treasury yields jumped after the release of the jobs data, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. The price of Brent crude oil was on track for a weekly gain. Bullion has fallen more than 17% since the U.S.-backed war with Iran began in late February. The conflict has led to a surge in oil prices and stoked fears of inflation and higher interest rates. Although gold is seen as an inflation hedge, higher rates tend to weigh on the metal. Markets are currently pricing about a 68% chance of a Fed rate hike in December, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, compared to about 50% before the jobs data. Gold demand was subdued in India this week, while premiums in China eased. Spot silver fell 6.1% to $69.34 per ounce, platinum dropped 3.2% to $1,839.40, and palladium slid 1.9% to 1,295.75. All three metals were headed for a weekly loss.
On the day gold closed down $138.70 at $4337.10, and silver closed down $4.84 at $68.94.
Platinum closed down $102.00 at $1792.00, and palladium closed down $71.70 at $1247.10.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above $4,481.78, with a sustained move targeting the 50-day moving average at $4,630.16. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below the 200-day moving average at $4,428.44, with deeper downside targets at $4,366.23 and then $4,099.12. First resistance is seen at $4,481.78 and then at $4,630.16. First support is seen at $4,428.44 and then at $4,366.23. Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $74.10 to $74.45 area, with a move above that zone targeting $75.50 and then $78.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below the $72.00 to $71.80 Fibonacci extension area, with deeper downside targets at $70.00 and then $68.00. First resistance is seen at $74.10 and then at $74.45. Next support is seen at $72.00 and then at $71.80.
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