Commentary for Friday, May 29, 2026 – Today gold closed up $61.20 at $4560.50, and silver closed down $0.03 at $75.62. The bulls are enjoying a pleasant surprise this morning as gold threatens recent highs of $4600.00 and Jonathan Da Silva (Kitco) makes a convincing case that gold may now be gathering fuel and is posed for a move back to $5000.00. Still, he is using a tight window. A close above $4510.00 today keeps the bullish plan alive. A close below $4500.00 today may be throwing up a bearish flag. Considering today’s second bounce to the upside I’m more optimistic, expecting $5000.00 gold by the holidays, even if the FOMC remains hawkish. Why? Because inflation will likely remain “sticky” and this will encourage fresh safe haven demand over the longer term. Last Friday gold closed at $4521.00, and silver closed at $75.89. On the week gold was up $39.50, and silver was down $0.27.
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On Monday (5/25/26) the domestic markets were closed for Memorial Day.
On Tuesday (5/26/26) the price of gold moved within familiar ground, but traders remained cautious of this market after the long weekend as prices slipped lower, trading between $4540.00 and $4500.00. Overhear resistance seems solid at $4600.00 as the dollar gains strength and the FOMC seems hawkish and still worried about rising tension in the Middle East. That being said, interest rates are not moving lower anytime soon, and this will cap higher prices in gold. The silver bullion market also presents a mixed bag. It reached all-time highs in early January of 2026 of $121.58 but profit taking pushed prices back into what some insiders now call a value range between $76.00 and $78.00. The public, it seems to me, is still selling rallies at these higher levels, which makes sense when you figure silver’s 52-week low is $32.00.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold continues to See Noisy Trading – Gold sees a lot of choppiness on Tuesday, as we are waiting for clarity yet again in the Middle East. At this point, it is a very difficult market to trade in. Technical Analysis – The gold market initially tried to rally on Tuesday, but it looks like the 4,600 dollars level will continue to be a major problem. If we can break above there, then it’s likely that we could challenge the 50-day EMA, but for me it’s going to come down to how things are behaving in the Middle East. Quite frankly, if we can get some type of peace breaking out, that would be wonderful on a whole host of levels beyond the charts, but that would definitely help gold as it should send rates even lower. Geopolitical Uncertainty and Technical Support – As things stand right now, there’s a lot of confusion because the Americans did attack a port in Iran and the Iranians, of course, are not happy about it. So as long as we are in this wait-and-see mode, I think that’s exactly what gold is going to do. It’s going to be in wait-and-see mode. If we break down from here, the 200-day EMA is a support level that I think a lot of people will be watching as a potential floor in the market. Ultimately, this is a market that I think probably goes higher over the longer term, but in the meantime, we’re just killing time trying to figure out what people in both of these governments are going to end up doing. Ultimately, I think you have a scenario where we just don’t have enough clarity for people to put a lot of money into the market. Position sizing is the one thing that you can control, so make sure that you do in this environment. Silver Continues to See Choppiness on Tuesday – Silver continues to be very noisy on Tuesday as Middle East headlines confuse traders as to what they should be involved in. At this point, silver is a very dangerous place to trade, so position sizing will be crucial. Technical Analysis – The silver market has been very noisy on Tuesday in the early hours as we broke above the 50-day EMA to test the $80 level. But since then, we’ve seen an attack on an Iranian port, which of course the Iranians are not happy about, and it could derail the talks. This is a situation where I think it’s very difficult to get overly aggressive one way or the other with silver, mainly due to the fact that we don’t really know what the next headline is. Technical Analysis and Support Levels – When you look at the market, you can make an argument that we are trading between $70 and $90, and I think ultimately this is a market that probably doesn’t really move much as far as large distances. I think short-term pullbacks offer buying opportunities, but that’s about it, nothing monumental or longer-term. The 200-day EMA being broken to the downside would be rather monumental, but I’m not really thinking that’s going to happen. I do think $70 will be held as support. I think 80 continues to be resistance, and if we can break above there, then we might challenge 90, but it will take some time to get there I think. I think we’re just stuck in this area, and a lot of sideways short-term back and forth trading will be the attitude here. In fact, it’s pretty much been the way since February with the range only narrowing. At this point, it’s a very neutral market with the potential to see dangerous and explosive moves.
On the day gold closed down $20.60 at $4500.40, and silver closed up $0.42 at $76.31.
On Wednesday (5/27/26) the price of gold continued to disappoint the bulls looking to get back on their feet in a market with a bearish overtone as gold moved from $4500.00 through a test of support at $4400.00. Even as the Dollar Index remains steady around 99.00 for the past 5 trading days. And the insiders are betting that firmer equities and lower oil prices will continue to reduce safe haven demand in both gold and silver bullion. I would not say the bulls are hiding under the bed at this point for several reasons. This is a short week and there seems to be a lack of fresh news one way or the other. UBS lowed its 2026 gold price forecast to $5500.00 and to me this is still a very bullish number, likely based on how fast the current pricing range can change given the volatility of the Middle East and President Trump’s sometimes aggressive demands. Finally, Trump told Reuters today that Iran and Oman will not control the Strait of Hormuz, and the deal remains elusive. Still, bullish sentiment is cooling, and traders expect lower prices. Volume numbers at the store are also moving lower. The public is selling gold and silver at least for now.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Drops Again on Wednesday. Can it Bounce? – The gold market has drifted lower on Wednesday, as traders continue to see a lot of downward pressure on precious metals overall. With this, the market looks likely to be a “fade the rally” situation. Technical Analysis – The gold market has drifted a little bit lower during trading on Wednesday as we are now testing the $4,450 region. This is a market that I think continues to struggle mainly due to interest rates still being as high as they are, and it’s worth noting that interest rates are trying to recover a little bit as I record this, so that could put further downward pressure on precious metals. The 200-day EMA sits at $4,373, and that could be where we are trying to get to. The $4,600 level above is a large round psychologically significant figure and a barrier from what I can see because there has been a lot of support and resistance in that region. Breaking above there opens up a move to the $4,800 level. This is an area that will be difficult to break above. Technical Analysis and Market Outlook – Ultimately, this is a market that I think continues to be very noisy, very choppy, but I think it also will more likely than not continue to be one that is basically moving on the headlines. The headlines coming out of the Middle East aren’t exactly promising, although it could be read that both sides are looking for a face-saving agreement, but at the end of the day, this is a market that still sees a lot of downward pressure. Selling gold continues to be the way a lot of traders are getting involved, but if we can get some kind of agreement in the Middle East finally, it should be positive for the gold markets in general. Silver Continues to Fade Rallies – Silver continues to struggle on Wednesday, as traders are looking to the interest rate market for clues, and a sign where risk appetite is going. Silver remains very sensitive to rates, and headline from the Middle East. Technical Analysis – The silver market fell significantly during the early part of the trading session on Wednesday as we continue to see the 50-day EMA offer a bit of a barrier. If we can break above there, then the $80 level could get targeted next. Technical Analysis and Market Outlook – Ultimately, this is a market that I think is going to remain very choppy and very noisy. And if we can somehow break above the $80 level, it could show a significant shift in the attitude of the market. At that point, we could be looking at a move all the way to the $90 level like we had seen a couple of weeks ago. If we fall from here, the $70 level continues to be important. It is at a massive support level, and of course, we have the 200-day EMA sitting just below there offering support as well. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of back and forth. I don’t necessarily know that we have any great breakout coming, and that does make a certain amount of sense considering that the silver markets are paying close attention to the scenario in the Middle East and what that could have to do with energy inflation, things like that, to keep the central banks around the world fairly tight. Ultimately, this is a market that is somewhat stuck. So, with this, I think back and forth trading probably remains the case between $70 and $80 in the short term. This could lead to short-term trading opportunities.
On the day gold closed down $52.90 at $4447.50, and silver closed down $1.71 at $74.60.
On Thursday (5/28/26) – The price of gold moved to highs of $4480.00 following the release of April inflation data and closing solidly in the green, more than making up for yesterday’s weakness. That is what makes this market difficult to figure in the shorter term. But, in my opinion the price of gold is still fading as a deal between the US and Iran remains elusive. The price of gold is looking tired, and the chances of the FOMC lowering interest rates are fading with rising inflation data. Still, you have a mixed bag here, keeping in mind the apparent paradox of rising inflation coupled with lower safe haven demand. At the same time Ernest Hoffman (Kitco) cites Moglia claiming that gold will top $5500.00 in 2027 and $10,000.00 by 2030.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold prices pare losses after US inflation data – Gold trimmed losses on Thursday following the release of U.S. April inflation data, but prices were still down for a third straight session as skepticism over a U.S.–Iran deal clouded the interest rate outlook. Spot gold was down 0.6% at $4,428.69 per ounce as of 9:16 a.m. EDT (1316 GMT), after falling to its lowest level since late March earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures fell 0.5% to $4,426.20. Data showed that the U.S. personal consumption expenditures price index jumped 3.8% in the 12 months through April, in line with expectations. The PCE price index rose 0.4% month-on-month in April after shooting up 0.7% in March. The data is giving gold a slight reprieve, suggesting the Federal Reserve may opt to hold rates rather than pursue further tightening, said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. Gold could still trend significantly lower from here and the reason here is that even if the war stops now, energy prices could remain higher, he added. Minutes of the Fed’s April 28-29 meeting published last week showed a growing number of officials open to the possibility that they may need to raise rates. Despite its safe-haven appeal, bullion underperforms when interest rates rise, as investors gravitate toward yield-bearing assets. “The problem for gold is that geopolitical instability is no longer operating in isolation. Higher energy prices are once again feeding into inflation concerns, pushing Treasury yields modestly higher and strengthening the dollar at the same time,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index. On the geopolitical front, Iran targeted a U.S. air base after the United States struck what Washington described as an Iranian drone operation near the Strait of Hormuz and President Donald Trump rejected a reported compromise deal with Tehran. Spot silver fell 1.2% to $73.69 per ounce and platinum lost 1.6% to $1,887.75. Palladium slipped 3.1% to $1,347.31.
On the day gold closed up $51.80 at $4499.30, and silver closed up $1.05 at $75.65.
On Friday (5/29/26) the price of gold pushed to the upside, threatening $4600.00, which further encourages bullish momentum considering yesterday’s close was a strong $4499.30 up $51.80 on the day. This is exactly what the bulls need going into the weekend because insiders have been disappointed with gold’s pricing pattern which has been trending lower for more than a month. Frankly this latest move to the upside is counterintuitive, keeping in mind that interest rates will likely be higher for longer as the FOMC struggles with recent inflation data. My bullish assessment is the result of growing Middle East tension and rising oil prices.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold gains on US-Iran ceasefire optimism but set for monthly drop – Gold rose for a second straight session on Friday after news the U.S. and Iran may have agreed to extend their ceasefire, though prices were still headed for a monthly decline as inflation concerns and expectations of higher interest rates weighed. Spot gold was up 0.6% to $4,519.64 per ounce at 8:52 a.m. EDT (1252 GMT). Prices fell to a two-month low of $4,365.76 on Thursday but closed higher. U.S. gold futures for August delivery rose 0.4% to $4,550.00. Four sources familiar with the matter said the proposed U.S-Iran deal would extend their truce by 60 days and lift restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. President Donald Trump has yet to approve the agreement, and Iranian state media said it has not been finalized. Gold bounced from a key technical support level, while optimism over the ceasefire extension pushed oil prices and the dollar lower – both supportive for bullion, said Phillip Streible, chief market strategist at Blue Line Futures. The dollar index was on track for a weekly decline, making dollar-denominated metals cheaper for overseas buyers, while oil prices were also set for a weekly fall. Still, the “higher-for-longer” interest-rate theme remains intact, Streible said, as disruptions to shipping and energy infrastructure could keep oil prices elevated and the Federal Reserve cautious. Data showed U.S. inflation rose at its fastest pace in three years in April, driven by higher energy prices linked to the Iran war, reinforcing expectations the Fed will keep rates unchanged well into next year. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Spot gold was down more than 2% for the month. Elsewhere, gold demand in India remained subdued due to higher prices and import duties, while premiums in top consumer China narrowed amid cautious sentiment. Spot silver fell 0.2% to $75.51 per ounce and was headed for monthly gain, while platinum steadied at $1,923.55. Palladium gained 0.6% to $1,375.57 but was down more than 9% for the month. Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $76.00 to $76.50 area, with a move above that zone targeting $78.00 and then $78.92. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $74.97, with deeper downside targets at $74.26 and then $73.20. First resistance is seen at $76.00 and then at $76.50. Next support is seen at $74.97 and then at $74.26.
On the day gold closed up $61.20 at $4560.50, and silver closed down $0.03 at $75.62.
Platinum closed up $0.60 at $1922.20, and palladium closed down $16.60 at $1361.00.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,550 to $4,576 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,600 and then $4,660. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,514, with deeper downside targets at $4,500 and then $4,460. First resistance is seen at $4,550 and then at $4,576. First support is seen at $4,514 and then at $4,500. Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $76.00 to $76.50 area, with a move above that zone targeting $78.00 and then $78.92. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $74.97, with deeper downside targets at $74.26 and then $73.20. First resistance is seen at $76.00 and then at $76.50. Next support is seen at $74.97 and $74.26.
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