Commentary for Friday, May 22, 2026 – Today gold closed down $18.80 at $4521.00, and silver closed down $0.52 at $75.89. A reminder that we will be closed this coming Monday, May 25th for Memorial Day. While the price of gold continues to trend lower this morning, pressured by rising strength in the dollar and the likelihood that the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged because inflation remains troublesome. The general investor mood, however, is not all bad as unresolved and perhaps unresolvable problems relative to Iran and its nuclear ambitions leave gold in a rather solid pricing range on both sides of $4500.00. Higher interest rates may prevent gold from making fresh new highs anytime soon, but there is not a line of sellers in our parking lot. Even though tension in the Middle East may be cooling to some degree. In the long run however, Iran will likely be calling the shots in the Strait of Hormuz. And this alone may push inflation numbers higher and increase safe haven demand worldwide. Last Friday gold closed at $4555.80, and silver closed at $77.16. On the week gold was down $34.80, and silver was down $1.27.
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On Monday (5/18/26) the price of gold seems to be settling to some degree after last Friday’s collapse in prices. Traders today bought this significant weakness, which pushed paper prices back into the $4575.00 area, but again they sold this rally as gold struggled to close almost unchanged on the day. To me this looks like a market trying to get on its feet after last Friday’s significant drop to the downside. I think the pros will stay in this cautionary mode in the short term, watching for possible further downside while keeping an eye on gold’s 200 Day Moving Average of $4500.00. Some insiders believe that a break below $4500.00 is in the making, and that may be true, but there are factors which might cushion such weakness. The uncertainty between Iran and US being a primary consideration. I look for a sideways to lower market, waiting on a change in the geopolitical roadmap, or perhaps an unexpected move by Trump.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to See Buyers Support, Despite Rates – The gold market looks like a market that will remain noisy, as interest rates in the US and beyond are rising. In this environment, movements tend to be volatile. Technical Analysis – The gold market looks as if it is trying to turn things around during the trading session on Monday after initially plunging. And now I am watching the $4600 level because if we can recapture that, it would be a very good sign; it could open up a move to the $4800 level. Breaking down from here and below the $4500 level opens up the possibility of a drop down to the 200-day EMA. And with this being the case, I think you have to be cognizant of the fact that the interest rate situation in the United States will continue to be a major driver of where we go next as well, as rates are extraordinarily high. Technical Indicators and Interest Rate Headwinds – As long as that’s the case, it does work against gold in general, but we are getting to the point basically where sooner or later, something’s going to have to break. We’ll just have to wait and see what that is. Gold breaking down below the 200-day EMA would open up a massive sell-off, and it would probably be accompanied by insane momentum in the 10-year yield in America. This has been a major issue and will continue to be at this point. For some time now, we’ve been watching the 10-year yield, and most of what we’ve seen has been that it’s just climbing, and that has been what’s been working against gold for this entire time. Despite the fact that there are wars to worry about, interest rates offering a return over a non-yielding asset quite often attract capital inflows, just as we’re seeing now. Silver Continues to See Buyers After Plunge – The silver market gapped lower to kick off the week but has seen buyers jumping into the market trying to drive prices higher again. Technical Analysis – The silver market has gapped lower to kick off the week and then plunged from there, but we have turned around to show signs of life since then. And it looks like rate is at least trying to roll over, so that should help silver eventually. We do have a major floor near the $70 level that will continue to be important, and I do think we’re going to stay above there. Key Technical Levels and Market Dynamics – But if we turn around and rally from here, the $80 level is an area I’ll be watching very closely. I think it opens up the possibility of a return to the $90 level. As things stand $80 is fair value, but keep in mind that this is not a supply and demand question most of the time, due to the fact that we’re more worried about interest rates—which, of course, are being driven by whatever’s happening in the Middle East. So, it is a very noisy market that has found itself to be even noisier currently. If we were to break down below the $70 level, then we could send this market down to the $60 level, but I don’t think that happens—at least not unless interest rates in the United States just absolutely skyrocket. I think right now everybody’s waiting around to see if the Americans will launch another round of attacks or not. The market will continue to be very noisy; it will continue to be very violent based on headlines, so make sure your position size is reasonable.
On the day gold closed down $3.30 at $4552.50, and silver closed down $0.09 at $77.07.
On Tuesday (5/19/26) the price of gold remains weaker and trending lower, testing support around $4470.00. And silver is also testing support around $75.00. So, yesterday’s rebound is being discounted as higher Treasury yields suggest lower prices in the metals. The Middle East is problematic but even this does not spark safe haven demand. So perhaps traders are waiting for fresh news which may redefine the direction of both gold and silver bullion in the short term.
Reuters (Anjana Anil) – Treasury yields, dollar weigh on gold amid inflation concerns – Gold prices fell by more than 2% on Tuesday as a firmer U.S. dollar and persistent inflation fears kept interest rate hike expectations and Treasury yields high. Spot gold fell 2% to $4,474.40 per ounce by 9:41 a.m. ET (1341 GMT). Prices fell to their lowest level since March 30 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for June delivery lost 1.8% to $4,476.80. “We are seeing a multi-country rise in real rates around the world, and that is really weighing mostly on gold. The dollar is also stronger, that’s a negative,” said Edward Meir, an analyst at Marex. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields were near a more than one-year high, while the U.S. dollar strengthened. Both rose as investors eyed a possible hawkish shift by the Federal Reserve to curb energy-driven inflation. Higher Treasury yields raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold and a stronger dollar makes greenback-priced commodities more expensive for holders of other currencies. Brent crude oil prices were elevated, fanning concerns of rising global inflation as fuel costs surge. “While the structural investment case for gold remains largely intact, shorter-term macro developments have created a more challenging backdrop for prices,” Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote. “Once immediate energy-related pressures begin to ease, central bank demand may re-emerge as a more dominant driver.” Market participants now await the minutes of the Fed’s latest policy meeting, which are scheduled to be released on Wednesday, as they seek to gauge the monetary policy path. Spot silver dipped 5.7% to $73.25 per ounce, platinum lost 2.8% to $1,923.55, and palladium dropped 3.3% to $1,371.25.
On the day gold closed down $46.20 at $4506.30, and silver closed down $2.24 at $74.83.
On Wednesday (5/20/26) the price of gold bounced somewhat higher testing overhead resistance at $4530.00 and finishing the day in the green. The idea here being that hopes for a resolution to the Iran conflict will move the price of crude oil lower and may ease inflation fears near term. While this working theory makes sense, it could easily come off the tracks if Iran does not give up its insistence on nuclear equality in the Middle East. Some look for the price of gold to break to the downside and face a test of support around its 200 Day Moving Average ($4350.00). This scenario makes the most sense to me, but keep in mind that the oddsmakers claim that the Fed could actually raise interest rates in December, an obvious red flag for bullish sentiment.
Reuters (Anjana Anil) – Gold edges higher as Treasury yields, oil ease; market eyes Mid East developments – Gold prices edged up on Wednesday, as hopes for a resolution to the Iran conflict pressured oil markets, relieving some inflation fears and knocking U.S. Treasury yields from their recent highs. Spot gold gained 0.4% to $4,499.72 per ounce by 9:10 a.m. ET (1310 GMT). Prices hit their lowest in more than seven weeks earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for June delivery were 0.2% lower at $4,502.10. “We’ve seen a reprieve from the continued increase in yields. So as a result, we’ve seen gold prices bounce off the recent lows,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note ticked lower, after touching its highest level since January 2025 on Tuesday. Higher Treasury yields increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. “Any type of resolution to the war or opening of the Strait of Hormuz would be a positive for the gold market in so much as the expectation would be that interest rates would decline, and hence that would be opportunistic or helpful to the gold market,” Meger added. Brent crude futures slipped after U.S. President Donald Trump again said the war with Iran would end “very quickly.” Still, investors remained cautious over the outcome of peace talks as the disruption to Middle Eastern supply continued. Higher fuel costs feed into inflation, forcing central banks to keep interest rates higher. Despite being an inflation hedge, non-yielding gold underperforms in high interest rate environments. Investors are now pricing in a 48.6% chance the Federal Reserve could raise rates in December, and an 89.6% chance it maintains current rates at its next meeting in June, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Minutes from the Fed’s April Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be released on Wednesday. Spot silver rose 1.9% to $75.26 per ounce, platinum gained 0.5% to $1,932.37, and palladium was down 0.1% at $1,352.75.
On the day gold closed up $25.00 at $4531.30, and silver closed up $1.02 at $75.85.
On Thursday (5/21/26) – The price of gold tested overhead resistance around $4540.00 but traders sold this small rally and prices drifted lower testing support at $4490.00 and finishing the day mildly in the green, a bullish plus on the short term. And the price of gold is nowhere near its 200 Day Moving Average ($4350.00), another plus for the bulls. Still, the tension created between Iran and the US is troublesome because Iran’s Supreme Leader issued a directive today that the country’s near weapons grade uranium should not be sent abroad. This “nuclear issue” will continue to be thorn in President Trump’s side because Iran has skillfully created a kind of buffer zone within the Strait of Hormuz. And controls traffic in that area, sometimes threatening crude oil shipments worldwide. In the longer term this bottleneck will contribute to higher inflationary pressures but for now the Strait is quiet, which is the reason gold is drifting lower.
Reuters (Ishaan Arora) – Gold falls as rising oil prices boost rate hike bets; dollar, yields rise – Gold prices fell 1% on Thursday as climbing oil prices heightened inflation worries, boosting bets for U.S. rate hikes and lifting Treasury yields and the dollar, which added more pressure on bullion. Spot gold was down 1% at $4,500.07 per ounce as of 10:17 a.m. ET (1417 GMT). On Wednesday, bullion rose more than 1% in U.S. trading hours after having hit its lowest level since March 30. U.S. gold futures for June delivery lost 0.7% at $4,502.90. Oil prices rose over 2% after Reuters reported that Iran’s Supreme Leader issued a directive that the country’s near-weapons-grade uranium should not be sent abroad. “Essentially, it’s all still about negotiation between Iran and the U.S. and in that context, we have seen a bit of uncertainty if a deal can be reached or not, with that, oil prices are increasingly pressuring gold,” said UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo. Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei’s order could further frustrate U.S. President Donald Trump and complicate talks on ending the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran. The yellow metal has fallen more than 15% since the war started in late February, which has disrupted maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, lifting energy prices and stoking inflation concerns. The dollar rose, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for other currency-holders, while the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond yield resumed its climb, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. “Increasing oil prices, which push inflation higher, are putting pressure on central banks to keep rates unchanged or potentially even increase them. This, thus remains a headwind for gold in the near term,” Staunovo added. Despite being an inflation hedge, gold struggles during periods of elevated interest rates. Traders now see a 58% chance of at least one 25-basis-point interest rate hike by the U.S. Federal Reserve this year, compared with 48% a day earlier, as per CME’s FedWatch Tool. Spot silver was down 1.1% at $74.98 per ounce, platinum lost 1.4% to $1,923.27 and palladium fell 1.3% to $1,352.38.
On the day gold closed up $8.50 at $4539.80, and silver closed up $0.56 at $76.41.
On Friday (5/22/26) the price of gold drifted lower, testing overhead resistance at $4535.00 and underlying support at $4495.00. Traders seem to believe that higher oil prices will insure inflationary expectations, especially in the longer term. Continued confusion in the Middle East should encourage safe haven demand. Still, I expect gold prices to slide to some degree but be supported by a solid technical picture. Because there is nothing out there that offers as much financial protection as “off the books” gold and silver bullion. The ride over the next decade will be challenging but it will pay for investors to remember that spending cuts are not part of the Republican or Democratic agenda. Today’s prices of gold and silver bullion may actually seem cheap when investors consider how much fiat paper currency in printed each and every day.
Reuters (Ishaan Arora) – Gold on track for second weekly loss as rising oil drives rate hike bets – Gold on Friday headed for its second straight weekly loss, pulled lower by a firmer dollar and rising oil prices that kept inflation concerns in focus and increased bets for a U.S. interest rate hike. Spot gold fell 0.5% to $4,519.69 per ounce, by 1255 GMT. It is down 0.4% so far in the week. U.S. gold futures for June delivery lost 0.5% to $4,520.90. “Gold is still very much on the defensive. Critically, it’s still holding support at $4,500 on a technical basis so that’s keeping the downside somewhat in check. The upside is limited, though, with the stronger dollar and rising oil capping gains,” said Edward Meir, an analyst at Marex. Oil prices climbed as investors doubted U.S.-Iran peace talks would yield any breakthrough. The dollar held near a six-week high, making dollar-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies. High energy prices tend to drive up inflation and could prompt central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer, which weakens demand for non-yielding bullion, even though it can be an inflation hedge. Traders have priced in a 58% chance of at least one 25 basis-point U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hike by December, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool. “If (oil prices) remain supported at these levels for much longer, inflation concerns are likely to stay elevated. In that case, we could see bond yields push higher again, which in turn could weigh on precious metals,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields dipped but hovered near one-year highs. Later on Friday, U.S. President Donald Trump will swear in Kevin Warsh as Fed chair, the administration said. In India, gold traded at a steep discount this week as price volatility eroded demand. Premiums also eased in China. Spot silver fell 1.2% to $75.77 per ounce, platinum lost 1.8% to $1,930.33 and palladium fell 1.5% to $1,358.26. All the metals were on course for weekly losses.
On the day gold closed down $18.80 at $4521.00, and silver closed down $0.52 at $75.89.
Platinum closed down $23.50 at $1931.60, palladium closed down $25.40 at $1358.00.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,538 to $4,546 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,573 and then $4,670. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,490, with deeper downside targets at $4,453 and then $4,400. First resistance is seen at $4,538 and then at $4,546. First support is seen at $4,490 and then at $4,453. Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $76.00 to $76.50 area, with a move above that zone targeting $78.00 and then $79.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $75.00, with deeper downside targets at $74.68 and then $74.00. First resistance is seen at $76.00 and then at $76.50. Next support is seen at $75.00.
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