Commentary for Friday, May 15, 2026 – Today gold closed down $122.30 at $4555.80, and silver closed down $7.75 at $77.16. The price of gold and silver today fell out of bed as gold broke below $4600.00 and silver dropped almost 10% into the $76.00 range as a very strong dollar not surprisingly overpowered safe haven demand. So, for now the bulls are hiding under the bed, waiting for the next bearish shoe to fall. Which will likely be seen as the FOMC leaves interest rates unchanged, in the face of stubborn inflation numbers. Last Friday gold closed at $4720.40, and silver closed at $80.40. On the week gold was down $164.60, and silver was down $3.24.
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On Monday (5/11/26) the price of gold and silver were modestly higher, but I sense a rather large dynamic change beginning to grow just under the surface – and it’s bullish in both metals. Now don’t get me wrong, this does not mean record prices will be seen this year. This change might better be called a “grind” to higher ground, even though gold closed almost unchanged today. But the key point I want to make is that patience will be necessary to gain a profitable advantage. And if prices in either metal trend lower do not be discouraged. Buying with the long term in mind (10 years) should put a smile on your face. Especially if you buy small amounts for cash and hold the silver bullion outside your normal banking and savings account. You would be surprised how many investors already enjoy this psychological advantage, regardless of price.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Grind Higher – The 10-year yield in the United States continues to be a massive influence on the metals markets, as we are asking questions about the direction of risk appetite. Technical Analysis – The gold market is slightly positive during the trading session here on Monday, but it looks to me like market participants continue to see a lot of questions asked about the overall situation in the Middle East, and of course, this is an area that we have been in for a couple of days now in the form of the 50-day EMA. With that, I think you have to wonder whether or not the market will be able to finally break above it. We’ll have to wait and see, but even if we pull back from here, I think there’s plenty of support at the $4,600 level as well as the $4,480 level. Overall, this is a market that, given enough time, I do believe we have to make a bigger decision. Market Dynamics and the Impact of Yields – When I look at the gold market, I recognize that it is very bullish longer term, but recently we’ve been drifting lower, and most of that comes down to interest rates. The 10-year yield in the United States is extraordinarily high, and with that, I think it continues to work against the longer-term uptrend in the short term. If we can get some type of resolution to the Middle East situation, then we could go higher, but I think over enough time, traders are starting to look a little bit beyond the Middle East, and we will continue the overall buy on the dip mentality. If we can break above $4,900 that would be a major positive sign for this market. We’re a couple of $100 short of there, but as things stand right now, there’s nothing on this chart that has me ultimately bearish. I just think there are a lot of noisy headlines out there. Silver Continues to Look Strong – Silver jumped right off the bat on Monday, as we continue to see a lot of momentum in this market. With this, traders are also watching the risk appetite when it comes to interest rates, and the news moving them. Technical Analysis – Silver has absolutely launched during the trading session here on Monday as we continue to see a lot of bullish behavior out there. All things being equal we have broken through pretty significant resistance and now it’s likely that silver will continue to try to go higher over the longer term. The market reaching towards the $90 level will be the default scenario that I see, but I also recognize that market participants have a lot to worry about, not the least of which will be higher than usual interest rates, and that, of course, has a major influence on what happens with silver. The Global Silver Shortage – The $90 level, I believe, will be difficult to overcome, but if we can, then we are more likely than not really going to take off. Overall, I believe that $90 is the top of the larger consolidation area that extends down to the $70 level. This is an area that has been important for some time now. With this, I think we’ve been forming a pretty big base in the silver market during the war, and now people are starting to focus on the reality that there is a major shortage of silver around the world, and that will continue to be a massive problem for this market. Overall, I do anticipate that we not only reach 90, but we break above there. I don’t know if we do it in the first attempt, so in the short term, I’m just buying dips.
On the day gold closed down $1.70 at $4718.70, and silver closed up $5.09 at $85.49.
On Tuesday (5/12/26) the price of gold and silver wobbled, closing in the red, as the dollar moved higher because of hot inflation numbers. And the fading Middle East peace hopes lifted the price of oil. We are again dealing with a confusing relationship between Iran and Trump. Which will eventually lead to higher prices on the metals. But as I have been saying a large amount of patience is needed. The reason being is that higher inflation rates put the FOMC between a rock and a hard place. They cannot lower interest rates even if the new Fed Chief Kevin Warsh turns dovish. Still, the aftermarket today bounced nicely into the green, suggesting that underlying strength is still a bullish factor, and traders are buying weakness. All that being said “Gold will navigate near-term headwinds to reach $5000.00 by year end (Ing’s Manthey).
FXEmpire (James Hyerczyk) – Gold Price Retreats as Hot CPI Strengthens Dollar and Yields – Gold prices fell after hot CPI data and rising oil prices boosted Fed rate fears, while a stronger dollar added pressure to the USD. Spot Gold is trading at $4,687.62, down $47.84 or 1.01% Tuesday after two things hit the market at the same time. April CPI came in hotter than expected and Trump called Iran’s latest peace proposal garbage. Either one of those on its own would have pressured gold. Both landing in the same session gave sellers everything they needed. Technical Outlook – Spot Gold edges lower on Tuesday after giving back earlier gains. Overnight, the market attempted to spike through the 50-day moving average, but the buying dried up at $4,773.58. Prices turned south for the session and now appear to be vulnerable, following the release of the April CPI report. At 13:16 GMT, Spot Gold is trading $4,687.62, down $47.84 or -1.01%. The market is currently sitting inside a long-term retracement zone at $4,744.34 to $4,541.88. It has been straddling this zone since late March after breaking down to $4,099.12 on March 23. It attempted to cross to the bullish side of the upper or 50% level at $4,744.34 in mid-April but the rally could not extend beyond the 50-day moving average and the market hit a high at $4,891.54. A similar pattern is taking place currently, but this time, the 50% level at $4,744.34 is forming a resistance cluster with the 50-day moving average at $4,757.38. In my opinion, trader reaction to this area will determine the near-term direction. Simply put, a sustained breakout over the 50-day moving average will be bullish and a sustained breakdown under the 50% pivot will be bearish. On an upside breakout, near-term targets are a 50% level at $4,850.68, a swing top at $4,891.54 and a 61.8% level at $5,028.04. The key being a potential surge over the swing top. On the downside, potential support is a minor retracement zone at $4,637.31 to $4,605.15. This is followed by the long-term 61.8% level at $4,541.88 and another retracement zone at $4,495.33 to $4,401.84. Traders should also be monitoring any test of $4,481.78, the level that separates the Bull Market from the Bear Market. And the long-term support, the 200-day MA at $4,323.04. Once again it comes down to buying strength to feed a bullish breakout over the 50-day MA, or playing for the pullback into support. CPI Was the First Hit – April Consumer Price Index came in at 0.6% month-over-month. Annual inflation climbed to 3.8%. Both numbers ran above what traders were positioned for and the reaction was immediate. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield moved higher. The U.S. Dollar Index strengthened. Gold dropped almost instantly after the print because the math changed. Hotter inflation means the Fed stays on hold longer. A Fed that stays on hold longer means yields stay elevated. Yields staying elevated means gold loses the argument because investors have a paying alternative and they take it. That sequence played out in real time Tuesday and Spot Gold (XAUUSD) paid for every step of it. June WTI crude oil jumped more than 3% Tuesday after Trump dismissed Iran’s proposal and said the ceasefire was on massive life support. That move matters for gold in a specific way that is easy to miss. Higher oil does not help gold right now. It hurts it. Higher oil feeds inflation. Higher inflation keeps the Fed pinned. A Fed that cannot cut is the single most bearish factor for gold in the current environment. I’ve been saying this since February and Tuesday confirmed it again. The gold specific rule has not changed. War escalation equals higher oil equals higher inflation equals Fed on hold equals bearish gold. Peace equals lower oil equals lower inflation equals Fed cuts equals bullish gold. Tuesday ran the first scenario hard. The 50-Day MA Rejected the Rally Overnight – Spot Gold (XAUUSD) actually tried to push through the 50-day moving average overnight before the CPI print hit. Buyers ran it to $4,773.58 and then the buying dried up completely. That rejection matters because it tells you aggressive buyers are not willing to take out offers above the 50-day MA even before the bad inflation data landed. When the CPI confirmed the bearish rate picture, the sellers had a clean run back toward support. The 50% level at $4,744.34 forming a resistance cluster with the 50-day moving average at $4,757.38 is now the ceiling that needs to break before this market has any upside story worth telling. What Changes This – Wednesday’s Producer Price Index report is the next inflation data point and it lands before the open. A softer PPI would give traders a reason to question whether Tuesday’s CPI was a one-off driven by energy prices or the start of a broader re-acceleration. Either way the PPI sets the tone for Thursday. The Trump and Xi Jinping meeting later this week is the other event worth watching. Any signal out of that meeting that Middle East tensions could ease takes June WTI crude oil lower. Lower oil takes inflation pressure down with it. That is the only path that opens the door for gold buyers to come back with conviction. What I’m Watching – The minor retracement zone at $4,637.31 to $4,605.15 is the first support area to watch on further weakness. Lose that and the long-term 61.8% level at $4,541.88 becomes the next test followed by the support cluster at $4,495.33 to $4,401.84. Inside that cluster is $4,481.78, the bull market and bear market dividing line. That level has held every time it has been tested. If it fails, the long-term trend conversation changes and the 200-day MA at $4,323.04 becomes the reference point. The 50-day MA at $4,757.38 is resistance. The 200-day MA at $4,323.04 is the long-term floor. Everything between those two levels is the range this market is trading until either the inflation picture shifts or the Middle East finds a durable resolution. Silver Drops from Resistance Region – The silver market tried to rise on Tuesday, but the rising rates in America have put a bit of a weight around the neck of silver. Technical Analysis – The silver market initially tried to rally a bit during the trading session on Tuesday, but it looks like we have gotten a little overdone. And of course, at the same time, the 10-year yield has risen again and that of course works against the value of silver. Bond Yield Pressures and Range Dynamics – The market right now looks like it could head back toward the $80 level, an area that is in the middle of that range, and therefore, I think a lot of people look at it as potentially fair value. All things being equal, if we do break above the $90 level, then it opens up the possibility of a bigger move toward the $100 level. But we’ll just have to wait and see how that plays out. The $70 level underneath is the floor in this market, and I don’t see us breaking down below it, but I do recognize that we spent a lot of time down there previously, so it would not be surprising at all to see this market try to get back to that area. Ultimately, the 50-day EMA sits just below the $80 level as well and that is something worth watching. But I think silver, the big takeaway, is almost always the same no matter what the day is, that’s to keep your position size reasonable because silver is so extraordinarily volatile.
On the day gold closed down $41.10 at $4677.60, and silver closed down $0.36 at $85.13.
On Wednesday (5/13/26) the price of gold opened about unchanged and finished the day only slightly in the green as inflation heats up, rising substantially more than expected in April. The bulls look like they are not that interested in buying weakness after yesterday’s dip to the downside. This cautionary mode and the fact that it is unlikely the FOMC will move to lower interest rates makes for an uncertain trade which in my mind favors the downside in the near to medium term. Do not worry too much about this latest minor red flag if gold remains above $4500.00. I would not rule out a test of this support area but if $4500.00 does not hold it could mean serious trouble for the bulls. Especially if the Fed stands pat on interest rates this year.
Neils Christensen (Kitco) – Gold prices touch session lows as producer inflation heats – The gold market remains stuck and faces further downside pressure because of rising inflation fears after producer prices rose substantially more than expected in April. The U.S. Labor Department said Wednesday that the headline Producer Price Index jumped 1.4% in April, following March’s increase of 0.7%. The latest inflation data came in significantly hotter than expected, as economists forecasted a 0.5% rise. On an annual basis, headline wholesale inflation increased 6.0% over the last 12 months, the report said. That marks the largest 12-month advance since December 2022, when prices rose 6.4%. In a similar trend to consumer prices, higher producer costs are becoming embedded in the broader economy. Core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 1.0% last month. Core producer inflation also came in well above expectations, as consensus forecasts had called for a 0.3% rise. For the year, core inflation rose 4.4%, its largest 12-month increase since it jumped 4.5% in February 2023. PPI is considered a leading inflation indicator because producers often pass higher input costs on to consumers. Although the gold market does not see any significant movement in its initial reaction to the rising inflation numbers, prices have fallen to session lows. Spot gold last traded at $4,679.50, down 0.75% on the day. Analysts have said that the gold market faces growing near-term headwinds as inflation fears continue to push markets into pricing in more monetary policy tightening. Markets are now pricing in a nearly 40% chance that the Federal Reserve will hike rates by the end of the year. Higher short-term interest rates will continue to weigh on gold, as its opportunity cost as a non-yielding asset rises. Naeem Aslam, CIO Zaye Capital Markets, said that the latest PPI numbers will be a hawkish wake-up call for markets. He added that the data is: “Igniting a powerful USD rally across the board, lifting real yields, and slamming gold with fresh selling pressure, while oil stays pinned lower under the weight of the stronger dollar. Markets are aggressively repricing a ‘higher for longer’ dollar regime right now.”
On the day gold closed up $20.10 at $4697.70, and silver closed up $3.76 at $88.89.
On Thursday (5/14/26) – The price of gold was choppy but in a quiet way this morning, moving between overhead resistance at $4715.00 and recent support at $4680.00, finishing the day mildly in the red. The dollar has moved higher this past week, nothing dramatic but enough so to suggest that the gold bulls may consider this a red flag and continue to sell into rallies. Especially if they bought at significantly lower levels. I also believe the silver bullion market is struggling at these lofty levels and will enter some sort of price consolidation for the next few months. At the same time there are factors like rising inflation and mixed signals between Trump and Iran to support current pricing levels. And suggesting fresh records may still be in the cards this year.
Reuters (Ishaan Arora) – Gold eases as investors focus on Middle East, Trump-Xi meeting – Gold prices edged down on Thursday while investors focused on the latest developments in the Middle East war and signals from U.S. President Donald Trump’s meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Spot gold was down 0.4% at $4,668.34 per ounce at 9:42 a.m. EDT (1342 GMT). U.S. gold futures for June delivery fell 0.7% to $4,672.70. The U.S. dollar was up 0.1%, making greenback-priced metals more expensive for holders of other currencies. Oil prices dipped after Iran’s state media said about 30 vessels had crossed the Strait of Hormuz in recent hours. Gold prices briefly gained after this report. “There is risk of a significant downturn (in gold) if this Middle East conflict isn’t resolved,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. Inventories and supply of energy products could be reduced to the point where prices rise sharply, leading to a rise in overall inflation, he added. U.S. interest rate cuts have been largely priced out at any point this year, according to CME Group’s FedWatch tool, due to a sharp energy-driven rise in U.S. producer and consumer prices in April. While gold is considered a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates tend to weigh on the non-yielding metal. Data released on Thursday showed U.S. retail sales increased further in April, but some of the rise in receipts was likely due to higher prices. Meanwhile, Xi told Trump that trade talks were making progress at the start of a two-day summit on Thursday but cautioned that disagreement over Taiwan could send relations down a dangerous path and even lead to conflict. The U.S. summary of the talks, however, made no mention of Taiwan. Spot silver fell 3.8% to $84.62 per ounce, platinum fell 3.4% to $2,065.50, and palladium was down 3.7% at $1,443.74.
On the day gold closed down $19.60 at $4678.10, and silver closed down $3.98 at $84.91.
On Friday (5/15/26) the price of gold opened in a free fall, finally testing support around $4520.00. This has created enough technical damage to suggest further weaknesses in gold. The price of silver looked equally bearish, down over 6% around $78.00. So, you can see that recent talk of an interest rate decrease is off the table. And traders are hunkering down, expecting steady interest rates, throughout this year. I would, however, not jump out the bullish window even as the bullish sentiment becomes challenging. Now, don’t get me wrong, the public is selling both gold and silver at these lofty levels. But if investors keep their eye on the long term, today’s prices may seem cheap because spending cuts to balance our budget and putting a stop to skyrocking creation of fiat currency is nowhere to be seen in the political dialogue.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to React to Rates on Friday – The gold market has gapped lower on Friday, as traders reacted to interest rates jumping in the United States. The negative correlation continues in this market. Technical Analysis – The gold market has gapped lower to kick off the session on Friday, as we have fallen down pretty drastically, especially with interest rates just screaming higher in the United States. That, of course, is an area of concern for gold that continues to really punish the bulls. As interest rates rise, it makes non-yielding assets such as gold a lot less attractive. If we do bounce from here, then the market could go looking to the 50-day EMA near the $4,728 level. But I think at this point, we need to see some type of shift or some type of headline to get rates dropping again. This has been the pattern, and will more likely than not remain so. Interest Rates and Bond Market Correlation – One thing’s for sure, there is a lot of uncertainty out there and it seems like anytime we do get some good news, it is followed by a lot of bad news. I think that continues to be the story here, that gold is losing at the hands of an overly concerned bond market that is pricing in significant energy inflation. If we break down below the $4,500 level, I think gold at that point in time really gets whacked. We probably see massive spikes in interest rates as well. The correlation between the two is extraordinarily strong and you need to pay close attention to it. All things being equal, this is a market that will be very noisy, but the interest rates in the United States will be a secondary market that you can watch closely to sort out where we go next. Silver Continues to React to Rates on Friday – The silver market gapped lower on Friday, and kept falling, as interest rates in the United States continue to rise, punishing the value of silver. Technical Analysis – The silver market gapped lower to kick off the trading session on Friday and then just fell apart. The market is testing the 50-day EMA at the moment, which, of course, is an indicator that a lot of people pay close attention to. If we were to break down below there, then it opens up the possibility of a drop to the $70 level, which is the bottom of the overall range we have been in. Quite frankly, silver gets absolutely crushed every time rates spike the way they have during the trading session on Friday, and that, of course, makes it so that falling here doesn’t surprise me. We have been bouncing around in a $20 range for a while, with the $70 level being a bit of a floor. Key Support and Resistance Levels – If we turn around and break higher, the $90 level is your ceiling, and if we can break above there, then we could really go a lot higher. Right now, though, I think you have to watch the 10-year yield because if it does start to spike again, then silver is going to be in trouble. Just as if it starts rolling over, that could be good for silver, and it goes higher. All things being equal, this is a lot of sideways action just waiting to happen, but you can see how fragile the rally is at the moment by the reaction that we had early during the session. By all means, be cautious as we head into a weekend which will probably have another deluge of random headlines.
On the day gold closed down $122.30 at $4555.80, and silver closed down $7.75 at $77.16.
Platinum closed down $102.20 at $1981.30, palladium closed down $33.70 at $1422.90.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,605.15 to $4,637.31 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,671 and then $4,729.85. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,541.88, with deeper downside targets at $4,503 and then $4,481.78. First resistance is seen at $4,605.15 and then at $4,637.31. First support is seen at $4,541.88 and then at $4,503. Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $80.00 to $80.79 area, with a move above that zone targeting $82.00 and then $84.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $76.50, with deeper downside targets at $76.15 and then $74.94. First resistance is seen at $80.00 and then at $80.79. Next support is seen at $76.50 and then at $76.15.
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