Commentary for Friday, June 8, 2026 – Today gold closed up $20.60 at $4720.40, and silver closed up $0.70 at $80.40. While the price of gold pushed to higher ground ($4745.00) in the early trade, investors sold this rally and gold finished only modestly higher on the day. Traders also enjoyed weekly gains in the price of gold as Consumer Sentiment declined in the US and inflation expectations pulled back from last month’s one year highs. (Kitco’s) Ernest Hoffman. I would not call this week’s gold and silver pricing a barn burner, prices lacking any real fireworks. As Middle East tensions cool. But any deal with Iran is political and unpredictable, so investors across our trading desk seem content doing nothing. Waiting to see if this Rube Goldberg holds water. Last Friday gold closed at $4629.90, and silver closed at $75.95. On the week gold was higher by $90.50, and silver was higher by $4.45.
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On Monday (5/4/26) the price of gold got whacked, testing support around $4500.00, closing significantly in the red for the day. For now, traders are selling rallies so I would suggest that lower prices are expected, especially in the short to medium term. While this move to lower ground seems counterintuitive Reuters points out that gold is trending lower, reacting to a softer dollar, Middle East uncertainty and rising inflation fears. Kitco (Neils Christensen) “Gold continues to face a challenging headwind as surging oil prices reignite inflation pressures and force central banks to rethink the timing of monetary easing—or even consider rate hikes. What had been shaping up to be a supportive environment for gold in 2026 – cooling inflation and imminent rate cuts – has quickly shifted. Central banks are now adopting a more cautious, wait-and-see stance as energy-driven inflation complicates the outlook. Rate hikes may be off the table, but expectations for cuts have been pushed further out, raising the opportunity cost of holding gold as a non-yielding asset. This shift has been enough to unsettle the precious metals market. Gold is no longer trading purely as a safe haven; it is increasingly reacting to interest rate expectations, and those expectations are moving in the wrong direction. The catalyst behind this shift is clear. According to the World Bank’s April outlook, the global economy is facing the largest oil supply shock on record following the escalation of conflict in the Middle East. Brent crude surged from $72 to as high as $118 per barrel in March, with energy prices expected to rise 24% in 2026. This kind of supply-driven inflation is particularly problematic for gold because it forces central banks to stay restrictive for longer, even as economic growth slows. And yet, despite these growing headwinds, gold’s underlying fundamentals remain remarkably strong. The World Gold Council reported that total gold demand rose 2% year-over-year in the first quarter to 1,231 tons, while the value surged 74% to a record $193 billion. Investment demand continues to dominate, with bar and coin buying jumping 42% to 474 tons – the second-highest quarterly level on record. This surge in physical demand, particularly from Asia, signals that investors are still turning to gold as a hedge against uncertainty. It also explains why bullish sentiment has not collapsed, even as prices consolidate. In fact, many analysts argue that the long-term drivers of gold’s rally remain intact. Bank of America has reaffirmed its 12-month target of $6,000 an ounce, pointing to structural factors such as rising global debt and persistent geopolitical risks. The World Bank also expects gold prices to remain historically elevated, forecasting an average of around $4,700 an ounce in 2026. However, that outlook reflects a more mature phase of the bull market, where prices remain high but face increasing resistance from macroeconomic forces, particularly interest rates. That tension defines the current gold market. Oil-driven inflation is reinforcing gold’s role as a hedge, but it is also delaying rate cuts and capping upside momentum. Gold may look vulnerable in the near term, but the bigger picture hasn’t changed. With rising debt levels and deepening geopolitical fractures, gold remains firmly in a long-term bull market – even if the path higher becomes more volatile.”
FXEmpire (James Hyerczyk) – Sell the Rally Mode Stays Until Yields and Crude Oil Break – Gold had nowhere to hide last week. The Fed held and hit harder than the market expected. Yields climbed. The U.S. Dollar Index held firm. June WTI crude oil spiked and dragged inflation expectations higher with it. Every bounce got sold. The value zone held Thursday and the market found its footing into Friday. The ceiling never moved. Here is what drove gold last week and what I am watching going into next week. The Fed Was the Main Event – The Fed held rates and the tone was the story. Higher for longer is not a phrase anymore. It is the operating assumption, and the Fed made that clear Wednesday. Rate cuts priced for earlier in the year got pushed out to late 2026 or further. The cut expectations that were giving gold something to lean on earlier this year are gone and the support left with them. This was the most divided Fed decision since 1992. Three officials dissented against signaling future rate cuts. After the decision, a 30% chance of a rate hike by March 2027 was priced in, up from 5% the day before. That is a significant repricing in a short time and Spot Gold absorbed every point of it. Real yields are elevated. Inflation is still the focus. That combination does not bring gold buyers back. Yields Did the Damage – The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield hit 4.402% midweek and the 2-Year pushed to 3.92%. I’ve watched this combination kill gold rallies before and this week was no different. Gold doesn’t pay you anything. When fixed income is offering those rates and the Fed is nowhere near cutting, capital goes where the yield is. The U.S. Dollar Index added to the problem, pushing to 99.05 at the peak. Every buyer outside the United States was paying more for every ounce. Yields moving against gold and the dollar strengthening at the same time is a two-front problem this market cannot solve in the short term. Both hit the same week. Gold absorbed both. The 4.30% to 4.40% zone on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield is where gold lives or dies right now. Above it, buyers don’t have a reason to step in. We spent most of the week above it and the bid stayed missing. Oil Set the Sequence in Motion – June WTI crude oil spiked earlier in the week and I knew exactly what was coming next. Higher crude, higher inflation expectations, higher yields, gold gets capped. That is the chain and it ran exactly on schedule. The inflation fear that comes with energy at these levels should be a tailwind for gold. It is not. The reason is the Fed. Oil this high keeps rate cut expectations off the table and a Fed that cannot cut is a bigger problem for gold than inflation is a help. That is the trap gold is sitting in right now. Central Bank Week Added Pressure – The Bank of Japan had three of nine board members vote to hike. On a central bank that has spent years resisting any move toward tighter policy, that is not a minor dissent. The European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Canada all delivered decisions this week, all holding with tightening options still on the table. Three central banks in one week and none of them gave gold what it needed. Tighter policy expectations globally tighten conditions everywhere and gold paid for it session by session. GDP and PCE Gave Gold a Brief Window – First quarter GDP came in at a 2% annualized pace, missing the 2.2% forecast. Softer growth data adds uncertainty, and uncertainty keeps gold in play even when rates are working against it. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield pulled back to 4.384% Thursday on the miss and gold found a one-day bounce. Headline Personal Consumption Expenditures rose 0.7% in March, pushing the annual rate to 3.5%. Core Personal Consumption Expenditures remained well above the Fed’s 2% target. Persistent inflation and slowing growth at the same time is not a clean setup for anything, including gold. The GDP miss gave gold a session. The PCE print took it back. Technical Outlook – Spot Gold settled lower last week, but the market did show signs of life late after the Fed announcements on Wednesday and after it neared the key retracement zone support area. The area I’m talking about is the short-term 50% to 61.8% zone at $4495.33 to $4401.82. But that’s not the story. Inside that zone is a longer-term 61.8% level at $4427.82. I think this is the most important area on the chart at this time. Hold it, and the door opens up for possible rallies into $4744.34, $4850.68 and $5028.04 over the near-term. These levels are still headwinds, but for a market that’s been struggling to generate momentum, it could be a good start. While a rally looks like a labored event, the downside potential is clear. Fail at $4401.82 and traders face the possibility of a steep plunge into main bottom support at $4099.12, followed by the 52-week moving average at $4077.39. The main range I’m studying is $3886.46 to $5602.23. Right now, XAUUSD is trading inside its retracement zone at $4744.35 to $4427.82. In fact, the market has been sitting in this range for about seven weeks. I don’t think we’ve hit the point where we can start counting down a breakout move, but we’ll certainly be focusing on trader reaction and order flow on a test of $4744.35. This level could set the tone for the week, so keep an eye on it. What I’m Watching – Gold is still in sell the rally mode. Support is holding but buyers are not committing at these levels. The area I keep coming back to is the longer-term 61.8% level at $4,427.82 sitting inside the short-term value zone at $4,495.33 to $4,401.82. That is the line this market has to hold. Lose it and the plunge into the main bottom at $4,099.12 becomes the conversation. Hold it and the door opens toward $4,744.35, which is the level I am watching most closely going into next week. Trader reaction and order flow at that level will set the tone. It has been a ceiling for seven weeks along with the pivot at $4850.68 and nothing in last week’s price action changed that. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield and Fed rate expectations are the two levers that will decide this. Softer inflation data changes it. A signal that cuts are coming changes it. Neither one is showing up now. Until one of them breaks in gold’s favor, this market grinds lower or goes nowhere. Patient money waits for value. Momentum money is getting punished.
On the day gold closed down $110.40 at $4519.50, and silver closed down $2.88 at $73.07.
On Tuesday (5/5/26) the price of gold tested overhead resistance around $4580.00 reacting to tensions over who controls the Strait of Hormuz and ended the day mildly in the green. Reuters claims that gold is experiencing a relief rally despite a generally weaker trend this past month. A trend spurred by fresh safe haven demand. Wisdom Tree claims that central bank policy risks will drive gold to $5,500 by the first quarter of 2027. This is entirely possible considering the growing problem with Iran and world tension over rising oil prices. Patience here will provide more time for a better picture of this unfolding story, as interest rates will likely hold firm.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Rises Toward a Major Level on Tuesday – Gold rallies slightly in early trading on Tuesday, as the markets are still moving on to the actions of the interest rate markets. Technical Analysis – The gold market has rallied a bit during the trading session here on Tuesday in the early hours as we are reaching towards the $4,600 level. That being said, I’m watching the 10-year yield pretty close, and it is worth noting that the 10-year yield is stalling slightly, but it is still at an extraordinarily high level. So, with that being the case, I trade this against each other. What I mean by that is the 10-year yield falling in America has me buying gold, 10-year yield rising in America has me shorting gold. In fact, this has been the bulk of my trading as of late, and this is a correlation that still remains pretty strong. Interest Rates and Inflation Concerns – The US 10-year yield is still at an extraordinarily high level as you can see on the chart. Going back multiple times we’ve gotten here, and every time we get there, it seems like gold struggles a bit. Not always, but often. As things stand right now, a lot of what you’re seeing in the bond market comes down to worries about inflation. Inflation means that the Federal Reserve will have to stay tighter for longer, which, of course, continues to make the US dollar a little stronger than it should be in normal circumstances. So, with that, it will cause some issues for gold, which, of course, is a non-yielding instrument. I’m looking to fade the move to the upside if the rates start to pick up again. If they don’t, then we could go all the way to the 50-day EMA. This would obviously be a massively bullish act and would catch a lot of interest. Silver Continues to Move with Rates in the USA – Silver continues to consolidate at the moment, as the interest rate market continues to see a lot of movement, causing a bit of chaos. Silver continues to be a tough place to make money at the moment. Technical Analysis – The silver market has been slightly positive in early trading on Tuesday as we continue to see more consolidation than anything else. That being said I don’t necessarily think that it’s a positive market because quite frankly the 10-year yield in America is screaming higher over the last several weeks and that ultimately does cause issues for non-yielding assets such as silver. The market, of course, is going to continue to be moving on th e latest Middle Eastern headlines, which, of course, are kind of a guessing game at this point. So, with all of that, I think you’ve got to look at this through the prism of a sideways market with the 50-day EMA above causing a bit of a ceiling in the short term and the 70 level below offering a bit of a floor. This is a hard floor from what I can see at the moment. Technical Analysis and Market Sentiment – Ultimately, I think we go back and forth, and I do think that the latest headline coming out of either Washington or Tehran moving the 10-year yield, if it makes it higher, generally speaking, that’s going to make silver go lower and vice versa. This is often the case in this market, so it doesn’t surprise me at all. Once we break out of this area, we might get a little bit more clean action, but I’m not looking for anything other than a little bit sideways back and forth, so with that position, size has to be appropriate. Don’t get too big in any particular trade, to protect your account.
On the day gold closed up $36.30 at $4555.80, and silver closed up $0.04 at $73.11.
On Wednesday (5/6/26) the price of gold roared as the dollar weakened, reacting to the rumors of a possible Middle East settlement and an end to the war which threatens oil production and transportation. Still this deal sounds sketchy at best. “As of May 6, 2026, key Middle East developments focus on shifting Iran-US relations and regional security. The White House is nearing a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war with Iran, while oil prices dipped on news of this potential peace deal.” So, the price of gold has rallied significantly but, in my opinion, traders are a bit on the cautious side waiting to see if this “deal” holds together. Or unforeseen problems between the principle players pressures gold lower to say something around $4600.00 or even $4500.00. Now don’t get me wrong, the key to this puzzle remains the relative direction of interest rates in the longer term. But keep in mind that inflation is stubborn and there is even informed talk about creating a “new normal” in the near future. So, the smart money will keep this latest jump to the upside in perspective. Gold’s all time high was $5600.00 in 2026. And personally, I believe you will see fresh selling if this latest news sparks higher prices in the short term. Especially if this Middle East peace holds and interest rates remains on the high side.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Races Higher with Dropping Rates – Gold markets rallied early on Wednesday as rates collapsed on the news that the war could wind down. With this, the negative correlation between rates and gold pricing continues. Technical Analysis – Gold markets have rallied significantly in the early hours on Wednesday as we have touched the 50-day EMA. Interest rates have collapsed as traders get wind that the Americans and the Iranians might be getting closer to a peace deal. This of course has more risk appetite coming into the market and therefore rates drop. Higher rates have been toxic for gold for some time, despite the fact that most people were taught gold is an asset that picks up strength during war. That can be true, but not always and in this case, it’s the not always version that we have seen. With that being said, it’s just simpler and cheaper to hold paper instead of paying to hold metal with storage fees, etc. Market Sentiment and Technical Resistance – Now with that being the case, the US dollar shrinks, rates drop, gold rallies. But notice how it hit the 50-day EMA and then pulled back. That tells me something. That tells me that market participants have also heard this story before and they might be a little hesitant to go all in on gold. This was a nice short-term pop, but the first signs of trouble out of the Middle East, gold probably drops right back to the $4,600 level, so be cognizant of that. If we can close above the 50-day EMA, that could provide a little bit of momentum. That being said, this is a very difficult environment that we find ourselves in and ultimately, I think we’re still basically just bouncing around in consolidation. This means short-term trades, and smaller positions to protect your account. Silver Continues to See Rate Sensitivity – The silver market has been positive on Wednesday, as rates collapse in the wake of the news that the Americans and Iranians are possibly getting closer to peace. Technical Analysis – The silver market has shown itself to be very positive in the early hours here on Wednesday as traders are looking at this as a market that is reacting to the peace dividend coming out of the Middle East. What I mean by that is that as the Americans and the Iranians look like they’re getting a little closer to peace, rates get crushed. Silver rallies. Rates are actually toxic for silver because it’s a non-yielding asset. In other words, it’s easier to own paper than metal. As far as the price action so far, we have broken above the 50-day EMA, and it looks like the market is trying to get to the $80.00 level. The $80.00 level is an area where I think you’ll see a lot of resistance, but I also think that if you can break above there, this thing could really take off. This would take further good news though, so we will have to wait and see. Market Resistance and Pullback Potential – It wouldn’t surprise me to see a little bit of a pullback here though. I think you buy the dips, but I think the pullback would make sense considering we’ve heard these stories before, and it would only take 1 tweet to set things on fire again. I believe that we’re still testing $70.00 as support, $80.00 as resistance, and until we break out of this area, it’s short-term buy the dip, maybe sell the rip. We’ll just have to see. Position sizing continues to be a major factor in your profitability, as silver is volatile under normal conditions, and these aren’t normal conditions, they are worse.
On the day gold closed up $126.10 at $4681.90, and silver closed up $3.70 at $76.81.
On Thursday (5/7/26) – The price of gold continued higher this morning ($4760.00) on hopes of a new proposal by Iran to end the Gulf War. But this initial surge faded in the early trade and gold only managed to finish the day slightly in the green. This is of course good news and contributes to regional peace, but with this lack of conviction I think traders will now approach these latest talks with caution. We now only enjoy a slightly positive bullish tailwind, which may turn into a negative and bearish headwind. The ticket in this very political war is to keep your eye on the bigger picture. The FOMC is unlikely to lower interest rates anytime soon because inflation is troublesome. So gold prices are capped in this region if interest rates do not soon move lower. I would not establish fresh bullion positions at these elevated prices, but if you are in gold or silver cheap you might consider selling a small amount of bullion into larger rallies. Still smart money believes that gold and silver will set fresh records in the very long term.
Reuters (Anjana Anil) – Gold turns positive as oil eases on hopes for Iran talks – Gold inched up on Friday, reversing earlier losses of more than 1%, on hopes for a breakthrough to end the Iran war after Tehran submitted a new proposal for negotiations, easing some inflation concerns. Spot gold was up 0.1% to $4,627.63 per ounce at 1:50 p.m. ET (1750 GMT) after falling to as low as $4,559.48 earlier in the session. It was still on track for a weekly loss of 1.7%. U.S. gold futures for June delivery were up 0.4% to $4,649.60. “Positive news regarding negotiations to end the war with Iran helped gold recover from early morning losses,” said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at EverBank. “An end to the Iran war could lead the FOMC to begin cutting interest rates again which would decrease the value of the U.S. dollar, which would be a positive for gold prices,” he added. The dollar eased against its peers, making greenback-priced bullion cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. Iran has submitted its latest proposal for negotiations with the United States, Iranian state media and a Pakistani official said. Oil prices dropped on the news, though they remained on track for weekly gains, continuing to fuel concerns about a global economic slowdown and surging inflation as fuel prices climb. Rising costs could prompt central banks to keep interest rates higher for longer, weighing on non-yielding assets such as gold as investors turn to alternatives like Treasury yields. The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged this week and struck a hawkish tone that saw markets abandon expectations for a rate cut this year. Bullion prices have fallen since the start of the Iran conflict in late February, despite the metal’s traditional role as a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty. Among other precious metals, spot silver prices rose 3% to $75.91 per ounce. “Long-term outlook (for silver) remains supported by a sixth consecutive annual market deficit, shrinking above-ground inventories and firm demand from solar and private investors,” wrote Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
On the day gold closed up $17.90 at $4699.80, and silver closed up $2.89 at $79.70.
On Friday (5/8/26) the price of gold and silver held up well enough, considering the level of world turmoil and degree of uncertainty. Still, most would expect the price of both metals to drift lower if interest rates remain steady. And this is the likely case because inflation data has not cooled sufficiently to make the case that the Fed will lower interest rates this year. Smart money will look at the big picture. Because nothing has changed as far as Federal spending is concerned. Neither party is interested in really balancing our budget. And now Trump’s maneuvering in the Middle East has muddied the waters, to the point where Iran may be holding the stronger hand in controlling the Strait of Hormuz. This might suggest that crude oil will be driven permanently higher, spurring inflation and creating fresh “safe haven” demand. It’s worth noting however that across our trading desk the public seems to have shifted its short term strategy. Investors are selling gold and silver bullion into price rallies. Neils Christensen (Kitco) – Morgan Stanley sees gold prices climbing to $5,200 despite geopolitical volatility.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold extends gains after jobs data, heads for weekly gain on US–Iran deal hopes – Gold extended gains on Friday following a stronger-than-expected jobs report, with prices also heading for a weekly rise as optimism over a potential end to the Iran conflict helped ease concerns about inflation and elevated interest rates. Spot gold was up 0.8% at $4,723.28 per ounce. Bullion has gained 2.4% so far this week. U.S. gold futures rose 0.5% to $4,733.00. Data showed that U.S. employment increased more than expected in April while the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3%, pointing to labor market resilience. “Traditionally, we would think that a stronger-than-expected jobs number would strengthen the dollar and apply some pressure to gold. Yet, we did not really see that happen today,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. “At this point, gold is trading like a risk asset rather than a safe-haven. The rebound in gold is tied to the prospects of de-escalation in Iran, with energy prices coming down, we’re seeing the prospects for Fed rate cuts increase down the road.” Gold, typically seen as a safe haven during periods of global turmoil, faces pressure from rising interest rates due to its non-yielding nature. According to the CME FedWatch tool, the market now sees about a 14% chance of a rate hike this year, down from around 22% the previous day. U.S. and Iranian forces clashed in the Gulf and the United Arab Emirates came under renewed attack, but President Donald Trump said a ceasefire was still holding despite the flare-up. Meanwhile, gold demand in India was muted this week, as a price recovery prompted potential buyers to postpone purchases, while China premiums remained steady on safe-haven demand. Spot silver rose 3.1% to $80.88 an ounce, platinum gained 0.2% to $2,026.80, both headed for a weekly gain. Palladium was down 0.3% at $1,476.18 but down nearly 3% for the week.
On the day gold closed up $20.60 at $4720.40 , and silver closed up $0.70 at $80.40.
Platinum closed down $0.90 at $2047.20, palladium closed down $35.20 at $1482.60.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices above the $4,744.34 to $4,780.78 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,850.68 and then $4,891.54. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,685.27, with deeper downside targets at $4,633.00 and then $4,541.88. First resistance is seen at $4,744.34 and then at the 50-day moving average near $4,780.78. First support is seen at $4,685.27 and then at $4,633.00. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices above the $83.00 area, with a sustained move targeting $90.00 and then the $95.00 region. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $72.00, with deeper downside targets at $70.00 and then $61.00. First resistance is seen at $83.00 and then at $90.00. Next support is seen at $72.00 and then at $70.00.
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