Commentary for Friday, May 1, 2026 – Today gold closed up $15.20 at $4629.90, and silver closed up $2.42 at $75.95. The price of gold managed to push back into the green in early trading today but has trended lower to some degree this week. As volatility increased and the FOMC as expected left interest rates unchanged because inflation remains troubling. With interest rates being steady it does not figure that gold prices will make fresh record highs in the short to medium term. But considering rising tensions in the Middle East the stage is at least set for fresh record prices in both gold and silver bullion by the holiday season. Last Friday gold closed at $4722.30, and silver closed at $76.38. On the week gold was down $92.40, and silver was down $0.43.
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On Monday (4/27/26) the price of gold trended lower in the early trade, finishing the day solidly in the red. Even though analysts have raised their annual gold price forecasts. Insiders believe strong central bank demand and economic uncertainty will offset the risks of rising inflation and hawkish policy bets due to the Middle East conflict (Reuters). So, are gold and silver prices headed higher or lower? This is turning into a bumpy road, but gold will likely hold up because there is nothing out there to replace its stability function in overall portfolio management. But even with this big plus the price of gold has been down 11% since January of this year and could continue lower as prices adjust to recent gains. And, unless you are a silver bullion fanatic believing there is a short squeeze around every corner, the price of silver may trend lower as the public seems to be a seller at these lofty levels. That being said, it is possible that gold will make new highs this year because safe haven demand is likely to increase as Iran seeks nuclear equality. Silver may trend lower, testing support and “value”. All-time highs for silver were $121.64 (2026). And its fundamentals remain the same so traders are watching this dynamic pricing. Gold/Silver Ratio: The gold–silver ratio shows how many ounces of silver equal one ounce of gold (gold ÷ silver), a key relative-value gauge. The ratio is trading between 56–69, inside March’s monthly band, suggesting both metals remain range-bound ahead of a possible sell-off. A rising ratio generally signals silver underperforming gold.
Reuters (Noel John) – Gold rally tipped to resume despite setback over Iran conflict: Reuters poll – Analysts have raised their annual gold price forecasts, a Reuters poll showed on Monday, with strong central bank demand and economic uncertainty expected to offset risks from surging inflation and hawkish policy bets due to the Middle East conflict. The metal’s broader rally is expected to resume once tensions ease, the poll found. The survey of 31 analysts and traders conducted over the past three weeks returned a median gold forecast of $4,916 per troy ounce for 2026, the highest annual forecast in Reuters polls dating back to 2012. The latest forecast compares with $4,746.50 estimated three months ago. A year ago, a similar poll showed an average forecast of just $3,000 for 2026. After a rapid record-setting rally that took gold prices to around $5,595 an ounce at the end of January, prices have shed some 11% since the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran in late February as investors rushed to raise liquidity. “If the war can be brought to a peaceful conclusion, then there is likely to be a relief rally, and there are underlying tailwinds that can keep prices supported. But the $5,500 level was too rich before and is likely to be so again,” said StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell. The metal’s role as an inflation hedge is currently being challenged by expectations of a hawkish monetary policy response to elevated energy prices. High interest rates tend to weigh on non-yielding bullion. “This is not a lasting development, matching our expectations that the war is unlikely to have a material and longer-lasting impact on global growth,” said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke. “Once expectations about more monetary easing by the U.S. Federal Reserve return, we also expect investment demand to pick up again,” Menke said. Central Bank Buying, Fed Concerns – Analysts believe the factors driving gold, including robust central bank buying, concerns about Federal Reserve independence, rising U.S. debt, and currency debasement, will continue to support the safe-haven asset in 2026. “The motivation for central banks to acquire gold is arguably stronger than ever and events in the Middle East will only have amplified a sense of vulnerability to dollar assets. In short, gold looks positive but in a more measured way,” said independent analyst Ross Norman. Analysts Trim Silver Forecasts – Analysts expect the metal to average $78.00 per ounce in 2026, lower than the $79.50 forecast three months ago. Silver, impacted by both investment and industrial demand, surged to a record 147% in 2025 and extended its winning streak to an all-time high of $121.64 on January 29, before dropping sharply to trade at around $75. “Another attack on $100 might develop if the war comes to a close but that would only be brief. The market is in a structural industrial deficit despite slowing solar demand in 2026, and $80 seems like a workable sustainable peak.” (StoneX’s O’Connell).
On the day gold closed down $46.90 at $4675.40, and silver closed down $1.38 at $75.00.
On Tuesday (4/28/26) the price of gold moved dramatically lower, testing support around $4560.00 as traders failed to go bargain hunting after yesterday’s bearish move to the downside. Gold reacting to interest rates moving higher. So, it’s easy to see that prices of both gold and silver are moving lower as interest rates strengthen. The bigger question, however, for investors has to do with relative value for lack of a better term. Do they believe gold and silver will move lower or higher given the current interest rate environment? I’m betting on lower prices for both metals, especially in the short term. Because the soon to be appointed Fed Chief Kevin Warsh looks like a traditional hawk and inflation is still troubling. Still, using gold’s 200 Day Moving Average ($4200.00 through $4300.00), gold remains in a long standing uptrend. A break below $4200.00 may suggest further weakness. A reasonable break above $4300.00 might suggest higher prices are in the making. Investors are still holding gold and selling silver bullion.
FXEmpire (James Hyerczyk) – Gold Price Plunges 2% as Yields Surge and Dollar Strengthens Tuesday – Gold Price Breakdown Targets Key Value Zone – Spot Gold is breaking down hard Tuesday and the chart is pointing toward a value zone that traders have been waiting on for weeks. Yields are climbing, the dollar is gaining, and the safe-haven bid is nowhere in sight. Here is what the levels say and what is actually driving this selloff. Technical Outlook – Spot gold is down sharply on Tuesday after taking out the swing bottom at $4644.46. The move solidifies my assessment that traders aren’t interested in buying strength at current levels but are looking for value. This means we’re likely headed into the short-term value zone at $4495.33 to $4401.84. The failure to overcome the 50-day moving average on April 17 when buyers had the chance was the first clue that the market was overpriced. The second was the failure of the swing bottom. Using the 200-day moving average as our reference, the main trend is up. If you’re looking for a dip then here you go. The short-term range is $4099.12 to $4891.54. Its retracement zone at $4495.33 to $4401.84 is the value zone. I’m looking for buyers to return on a pullback into this zone. If we get a successful test of the value zone then you are in control of the trade. You can then sell it at the 50-day MA or play for a breakout. The pattern repeats over and over. You just have to know if you’re an active trader, willing to take out offers, or a passive trader bidding for the best price. If it fails, then you still have the 200-day MA as your lean. Longer-term traders should take note because the market is in a position to test the lower end of a key retracement zone. The range it’s working in is $3886.46 to $5602.23. The market has been straddling its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone at $4744.34 to $4541.88 since February 2. The short-term retracement zone I mentioned earlier is slightly below the major zone. As far as the moving averages are concerned, we have the 50-day MA at $4853.60 acting like short-term resistance. The 200-day MA held as support at $4091.41, when it bottomed at $4099.12 on March 23. Keep an eye on this one too if it’s tested. Yields and the Dollar Running the Show – Spot Gold is trading at $4,598.68 at 12:50 GMT, down $83.28 on the session. That is nearly 2% in one session and the selloff is not coming from geopolitical fear reversing. It is coming from yields and the dollar moving against gold at the same time. The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield is pushing to a three-week high. When yields climb that fast, gold loses the argument. Investors have a paying alternative and they are taking it. The U.S. Dollar Index is strengthening on top of that, making gold more expensive for every buyer outside the United States. Two headwinds hitting simultaneously is not a setup gold can easily fight through. Central Banks Adding Pressure –Three of nine Bank of Japan board members voted to hike Tuesday. On a central bank that has spent years resisting any move toward tighter policy, that is not a minor dissent. Inflation tied to the Middle East conflict is pushing even the most patient policymakers off the sideline. Tighter policy in Japan tightens conditions everywhere and gold is already paying for it. The Fed holds this week and the market is not treating that as a green light for gold. Higher-for-longer is still the operating assumption and nothing on Tuesday changed it. The European Central Bank, Bank of England, and Bank of Canada all announce this week too. One hawkish surprise from any of them and this selloff has more room to run. The way I see it, gold is headed for the value zone at $4495.33 to $4401.84. That is where I expect buyers to show up. Unless yields reverse hard or geopolitical risk escalates sharply, the path of least resistance is lower until that zone gets tested. Silver Falls as Rates Rise – The silver market fell in early trading on Tuesday, as interest rates rising continue to cause problems for the silver bulls. Technical Analysis – The silver market has fallen a bit during the early hours on Tuesday as interest rates in the United States continue to climb. With that being the case, it does make a certain amount of sense that we see non-yielding assets such as silver fall. And now I think we may go looking for a test for the $70 level. The $70 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that people will be watching very closely. Ultimately, I think this is a market that is trying to sort out where the range is going to be before it’s all said and done. This is a market that will continue to be one that remains noisy, but eventually, we will get back to the supply and demand situation again. Interest Rates and Market Pressure – But at the same time, we have so many concerns in the Middle East that the interest rates in the United States and other places, for that matter, continue to rise. As long as that’s the case, it just puts too much pressure on silver for it to take off. If rates do drop, the 50-day EMA, just above could be an area where you would expect to see a little bit of resistance, but that resistance should give way to a move to the $80 level. Ultimately, I think silver becomes bullish, but I also think it is a longer-term play and therefore the fluctuations of the day will continue to make this very noisy. A little bit of patience goes a long way. Keep an eye on that 10-year yield; it’ll give you an idea as to where we might end up.
On the day gold closed down $83.90 at $4591.50, and silver closed down $1.79 at $73.21.
On Wednesday (4/29/26) the price of gold again pushed lower testing support around $4510.00 as traders ignored an expected bargain hunting round after gold fell out of bed and closed down $83.90 yesterday. This looks like a red flag signaling further weakness on the short term as the Bank of Canada leaves interest rates unchanged at 2.25% and says that the Iran conflict and US trade policy “are ongoing sources of uncertainty”. So gold prices continue to struggle, and technical expert Jim Wycoff (Kitco) set up a buy signal at $4624.30 and a sell signal at $4550.00. These preset levels are better suited to trading in the paper market but still work well in helping investors develop a strategy in a market which has become uncertain and volatile. Across our trading desk the public is still holding physical gold bullion and selling silver bullion.
Reuters (Ashitha Shivaprasad) – Gold extends decline as inflation worries linger, Fed meeting looms – Gold prices fell for a third straight session on Wednesday, as inflation worries tied to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East clouded the outlook for monetary policy, while the spotlight was also on the U.S. Federal Reserve’s rate decision later in the day. Spot gold was down 1.1% at $4,543.57 per ounce, as of 8:55 a.m. EDT (1255 GMT), a one-month low. U.S. gold futures fell 1.1% to $4,555.70. “We are seeing some positioning ahead of this afternoon’s FOMC decision. Rising U.S. Treasury yields and higher crude oil prices, which is causing inflation worries, have also been bearish for the gold market,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. Gold is known as an inflation hedge, but the non-yielding metal’s appeal dims if central banks raise interest rates. U.S. President Trump urged Iran to ‘get smart soon’ and sign a deal, following days of deadlock in efforts to end the conflict in the Middle East and a media report that the U.S. would extend its blockade of Iran’s ports. The war has sent oil prices soaring, with Brent hitting a one-month high as concerns about supply disruptions persisted, while U.S. Treasury yields ticked higher. The Federal Reserve’s policy decision is due at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT), with expectations that rates will be held steady. Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to hold a press conference half an hour later, in what could be his final meeting as head of the Fed. “Today’s meeting may be uneventful because no rate changes are expected. Of course, any surprises coming from Powell would be market sensitive,” said Wyckoff. Elsewhere, the World Gold Council said global gold demand rose 2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026 as a surge in purchases of gold bars and coins, as well as a 3% growth in buying by central banks, outweighed a 23% decline in jewelry demand. Among other metals, spot silver fell 1.6% to $71.95 per ounce, platinum fell 2.1% to $1,900.11, and palladium was down 1.6% at $1,436.86.
On the day gold closed down $46.30 at $4545.20, and silver closed down $1.64 at $71.57.
On Thursday (4/30/26) – the price of gold moved to session highs around $4640.00 as dollar strength moved higher and core inflation remains muted according to Neils Christensen (Kitco). At the same time the Bank of England and the ECB (European Central Bank) left interest rates unchanged, which should help cap short term gold prices which have now bounced off support prices around $4500.00. Still, considering the rather large drop in gold over the last few days I would ignore today’s bounce to higher ground. I believe this market may continue to build a bearish case for gold and silver in the short to medium term. But considering the longer view, the metals may make fresh new highs this year if interest rates trend lower by the holiday season.
FXEmpire (Muhammad Umar) – Fiscal Deficits Keep Gold Attractive in Real Terms – Gold remains supported by fiscal deficits, sticky inflation, and weaker S&P 500-to-gold ratio signals, but a stronger U.S. dollar or higher yields could delay the next upside move. Gold prices have bounced off the $4,400 to $4,500 support area as renewed fiscal support, elevated energy prices and stagflation fears continue to underpin a long-term bullish argument. I believe this retracement is more likely to be a consolidation of strong upward trend than a reversal. This article discusses how fiscal deficits, the S&P 500-gold ratio and technical levels could determine whether gold rebounds to $5,000 or tests the $4,270 to $4,000 support zone. Silver Rises with Falling rates Early on Thursday – Silver rallies as rates drop in America during the overnight hours, giving a bit of relief to a market that desperately needs it. Technical Analysis – The silver market has risen quite nicely during the trading session here on Thursday in the early hours as yields start to drop. The 10-year yield, of course, is what I typically watch, and it looks like it’s trying to form a little bit of a double top after shooting straight up in the air again. Market Outlook and Sustainability of Rates – I think given enough time, we have a situation where traders are looking at this through the prism of whether or not rates are sustainable. I don’t think they are at this point and with that being the case, I believe you have to look at this as a market that eventually grinds higher, but you have to look for the occasional spike on the 10-year yield. This is something that active traders will keep in mind, as we have seen such a strong correlation lately. If we break down below $70, that of course would be a very negative turn of events, almost certainly right along with rising rates. At that point, it could open up a move down to the 200-day EMA, but I think we’re trying to stay in the range between $70 and $80 for now.
On the day gold closed up $69.50 at $4614.70, and silver closed up $1.96 at $73.53.
On Friday (5/1/26) the price of gold dipped on the open, testing support at $4560.00 but quickly moved back to session highs and testing overhead resistance around $4650.00 so bullish sentiment gets a bit of help going into the weekend. And the momentum players from yesterday again nudge prices higher today. At the same time this bullish sentiment is clouded by the news that Indian banks have halted gold imports in April. And considering the rising geopolitical tension in the Middle East, I’m surprised gold is not making a statement. I would not overreact, however, because this is a snapshot picture at the end of a confusing week. Gold may be trending lower but when viewed over the longer term investors continue to hold gold and sell silver bullion on rallies. But as Ole Hansen (Saxo Bank) notes – silver has posted annual deficits for 6 consecutive years, so the chance of a short squeeze is always right around the corner.
Reuters (Anjana Anil) – Gold falls as inflation concerns fuel higher rate expectations – Gold fell on Friday and was headed for a weekly loss as inflation concerns reinforced higher-for-longer rate expectations, with oil prices holding near $110 a barrel. Spot gold was down 0.7% at $4,588.32 per ounce at 9:30 a.m. ET (1330 GMT) after falling to as low as $4,559.48 earlier in the session. It was on track for a weekly loss of 2.3%. U.S. gold futures for June delivery fell 0.6% to $4,600.00. “Precious metal traders continue to sell gold after the Fed signaled U.S. interest rates would remain on hold for the near term due to inflation concerns,” said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at EverBank. This downward trend in gold could continue in the near term as these concerns persist, with oil prices remaining elevated, he added. Brent prices headed for a weekly gain and continued to stoke fears of a global economic slowdown and surging inflation as fuel prices climb. Increasing costs could encourage central banks to hold interest rates higher for longer, which would pressure non-yielding assets like gold as investors turn to alternate options like Treasury yields that offer better returns. The U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged this week and adopted a hawkish tone that saw markets give up on any hope for a rate cut there this year. Bullion prices have fallen since the start of the Iran conflict in late February, even though the metal is considered a hedge against geopolitical uncertainty. In the Middle East, Iran sent its latest proposal for negotiations with the United States to Pakistani mediators on Thursday, state news agency IRNA reported. Among other precious metals, spot silver prices rose 1.4% to $74.78 per ounce. “Long-term outlook (for silver) remains supported by a sixth consecutive annual market deficit, shrinking above-ground inventories and firm demand from solar and private investors,” wrote Ole Hansen (Saxo Bank.) Platinum was up 0.3% at $1,991.80, and palladium lost 0.1% to $1,522.25.
On the day gold closed up $15.20 at $4629.90, and silver closed up $2.42 at $75.95.
Platinum closed up $17.60 at $1996.60, palladium closed up $12.80 at $1539.20.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices above the $4,602 to $4,628 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,675 to $4,705. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,558, with deeper downside targets at $4,520 and then $4,472. First resistance is seen at $4,602 and then at $4,628. First support is seen at $4,558 and then at $4,520. Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices above the $73.85 to $74.20 resistance zone, with a move above that area targeting $75.10. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $72.95, with deeper downside targets at $72.10 and then $71.20. First resistance is seen at $73.85 and then at $74.20. Next support is seen at $72.95 and then at $72.10.
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