Commentary for April 24, 2026 – Today gold closed up $17.20 at $4722.30, and silver closed up $0.91 at $76.38. Gold moved to session highs today at $4730.00 but only finished the day mildly in the green as prices continue to struggle at these lofty levels reacting to rising interest rates. Traders have also abandoned the notion that the Middle East war will end anytime soon. (EXEmpire). Insiders expect gold to trade between $4600.00 and $5000.00, an optimistic plus. The so-called Thorium Approach is at least a fresh approach at resolving problems in the Middle East. Still, at the present time, Iran is holding all the cards. And Trump’s extension of the cease fire by three weeks portends less geopolitical tension and perhaps lower prices in both gold and silver in the short term. Last Friday gold closed at $4857.60, and silver closed at $81.74. On the week gold was down $135.30, and silver was down $5.36.
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On Monday (4/20/26) the price of gold was a bit choppy, rising to session highs of $4820.00 as tension in the Middle East gets a reset and the dollar moves to weekly lows. Still, gold finished down on the day and nicely in the red, which suggests some kind of back office deal might be in the making. And today’s fresh quote by Newsweek: “President Donald Trump has said Iran has violated the fragile ceasefire between the two countries, pledging to attack Iranian power plants and bridges if Tehran doesn’t sign a deal to end the war. “NO MORE MR. NICE GUY!” he warned on Truth Social. Trump said Iran had “decided to fire bullets yesterday” in what he termed a “total violation of our ceasefire agreement” in a post on Sunday.”
We are back to a confusing situation which suggests Iran will not cooperate. And the cost of such defiance raises the tension in this region. I don’t think Trump’s threatening approach will bear fruit, but even the threat of violence by either party may not support the current pricing range for gold in my opinion. The public is selling gold and silver bullion. Look for decreasing prices.
Reuters (Ishaan Arora) – US-Iran tensions, firmer dollar push gold to one-week low – Gold prices were down on Monday after falling to a one-week low earlier in the session, as the dollar and oil prices climbed on Iran’s threat of retaliation in response to the U.S. takeover of an Iranian cargo vessel. Spot gold was down 0.3% at $4,818.03 per ounce, as of 9:23 a.m. EDT (1323 GMT), after hitting its lowest price since April 13 earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for June delivery fell 0.8% to $4,839.10. The U.S. dollar rose to its highest level in a week before paring gains to trade up 0.1%, as renewed U.S.-Iran tensions caused uncertainty in markets about the chances of a peace deal. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields gained, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. “The situation in the Middle East has clearly intensified again, shifting our gold forecast tilted slightly to the downside amid increased risks of another sharp spike in oil prices, which could result in a higher dollar and bond yields,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at City Index and FOREX.com. A ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran appeared in jeopardy on Monday after the takeover of the cargo ship. Oil prices jumped around 5% on fears the ceasefire would collapse, and as flows through the Strait of Hormuz remained largely halted. Though gold is considered an inflation hedge, demand for the non-yielding asset is dampened when global interest rates are high. Rates could remain higher for longer as a result of heightened inflation due to the war in the Middle East. “Gold traders on this day are choosing the bearish daily elements (higher dollar, yields) for the metals. Technically, June gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $5,000,” Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals, said in a note. Among other metals, spot silver lost 0.8% to $80.18 per ounce, platinum fell 1.2% to $2,077.35, and palladium was down 0.3% at $1,554.48 after touching a one-week low earlier.
On the day gold closed down $51.00 at $4806.60, and silver closed down $1.79 at $79.95.
On Tuesday (4/21/26) the price of gold tested support at $4730.00 suggesting that safe haven demand is weakening. And considering that gold was down $51.00 yesterday and traders today are not buying weakness is another bearish minus. Gold is left footed for two more reasons: (1) The new Fed Chairman Warsh does not look like a Trump pushover; his most recent speech maintained that a healthy Fed Chairman is completely independent and not subject to changes in the political wind. And (2) Stubborn inflation numbers do not suggest lower interest rates anytime soon. Finally, I expect further weakening in gold prices as Middle East tension cools.
Reuters (Ishaan Arora) – Gold slips on firm dollar ahead of tentative US-Iran talks – Gold prices fell as the dollar firmed, investors remaining cautious as they looked to tentative U.S.-Iran talks and a Senate confirmation hearing for Federal Reserve Chairman nominee Kevin Warsh later on Tuesday. Spot gold was down 0.9% to $4,776.49 per ounce at 9:33 a.m. EDT (1333 GMT). U.S. gold futures for June delivery fell 0.7% to $4,795.40. The U.S. dollar edged higher, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for other currency holders. “Markets are hesitant about a potential deal between the U.S. and Iran, given the weekend’s developments and mixed rhetoric. This is keeping bulls in check for now and may confine gold to a tight range until certainty arrives,” said Zain Vawda, analyst at MarketPulse by OANDA. Gold could trade between $4,750 and $4,850, with any move above this hinging on Middle East announcements, he added. In an interview with CNBC, U.S. President Donald Trump sent mixed signals on talks due to resume in Islamabad. A senior Iranian official said Tehran was considering attending, even as the country’s foreign ministry condemned a U.S. attack on the Iranian commercial vessel Touska over the weekend. Oil prices fell on expectations that peace talks will lead to more supply flowing from the key Gulf producing region, even though Trump, who said he remained optimistic for a deal with Iran, stated he did not want to extend a ceasefire due to expire within hours. Inflation fears have risen with oil prices, which have surged since the U.S. and Israel launched the war on Iran on February 28. Although gold is seen as an inflation hedge, demand for the non-yielding asset suffers when interest rates are high. Former Fed Governor Warsh takes the next step to becoming head of the U.S. central bank, with a Senate Banking Committee hearing due to begin at 10 a.m. “Investors fear higher rates, but a confirmed ‘team player’ could boost gold. However, the reaction could be muted as the situation is vastly different now than it was prior to the war,” Vawda added. Among other precious metals, spot silver fell 1.6% to $78.64 per ounce, platinum lost 0.8% to $2,073.05, while palladium was up 1% at $1,566.75.
On the day gold closed down $108.20 at $4698.40, and silver closed down $3.54 at $76.41.
On Wednesday (4/22/26) the price of gold moved between $4725.00 and $4770.00, suggesting a bit of bargain hunting. This gives the bulls a needed respite after our shiny friend fell out of bed yesterday losing $108.20 but is not enough spark to restore full blown confidence in higher prices, in the short term. For this to happen it would take a break above $5000.00 for gold and $85.00 for silver. This still looks like a confused market at the higher end of these pricing ranges, and a break to the upside is needed to restore confidence in both gold and silver. Or this market may continue to move lower, especially if interest rates remain at current levels.
Reuters (Ishana Arora) – Gold rises on drop in Treasury yields, bargain-hunting – Gold rose about 1% on Wednesday after falling to more than a one-week low in the previous session, as longer-dated U.S. Treasury yields fell and on bargain-hunting even as investors await a possible resumption of U.S.-Iranian peace talks. Spot gold was up 0.8% at $4,749.61 per ounce by 9:42 a.m. EDT (1342 GMT), after rising 1% earlier in the session. On Tuesday, it recorded its largest daily loss since March 26. U.S. gold futures for June delivery gained 1% to $4,767.70. Gold is seeing “a bit of a reprieve as rates along the curve dropped here and on the hope that the Strait of Hormuz business gets worked out after Donald Trump’s statements. But the situation is very tenuous and uncertain,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. Iran on Wednesday seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of the world’s oil supply, after U.S. President Donald Trump called off attacks indefinitely to allow Tehran to come up with a unified peace proposal. There is, however, no sign of peace talks restarting. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields fell 0.24%. “Perceived bargain-hunting after Tuesday’s losses is also featured in (gold and silver) precious metals markets,” said Jim Wyckoff, senior analyst at Kitco Metals. Gold prices have fallen close to 11% since the war began on February 28, as rising oil prices have stoked inflation fears. While bullion is seen as an inflation hedge, higher interest rates dampen demand for the non-yielding metal. Federal Reserve chief nominee Kevin Warsh said on Tuesday he had made no promises to Trump about cutting interest rates, as he tried to assure U.S. senators considering his confirmation that he would act independently of the White House while pursuing broad reforms. Spot silver rose 1.6% to $77.92 per ounce, platinum gained 2.1% to $2,079.21, and palladium was up 1.5% at $1,556.49.
On the day gold closed up $34.10 at $4732.50, and silver closed up $1.48 at $77.89.
On Thursday (4/23/26) the price of gold wobbled a bit but moved to session highs of $4740.00 before settling mildly in the red for the day. This close looks like a caution flag given the Lebanon-Israel ceasefire extension. We have now entered a highly uncertain and politically driven phase in gold pricing, which is difficult to get your head around, especially in the short to medium term. This market could blast higher if these attempts at controlling oil through the Strait of Hormuz fail. But at the same time there is perhaps, at least the beginning of a master plan which might help all parties concerned. The Wall Street Journal posits an interesting solution. Test Iran’s intentions by offering a new technology that produces abundant energy but not bombs. The so called Thorium Solution. But after this possible reset the big question remains the same. Will Iran give up her defensive nuclear capabilities? The answer here is questionable because trust is lacking on both sides. And Iran might not want to be the only power broker in the area without nuclear capability. Now throw in President Trump’s notion of “who is ready to make a deal”, and you have “a fine kettle of fish” as Oliver Hardy was so fond of saying. The stakes here could not be higher, but I would not be a buyer or seller at this point. The carrot and stick approach has merits and may suggest short term price direction in gold and silver bullion.
Reuters (Ishaan Arora) – Gold edges down on possible Lebanon-Israel ceasefire extension – Gold edged lower on Thursday, erasing most of the day’s earlier losses, following news of a potential Lebanon-Israel ceasefire extension, and after Treasury yields pared gains following U.S. weekly jobless claims data. Spot gold was down 0.3% at $4,723.61 per ounce, as of 1312 GMT, after falling 1% earlier to as low as $4,683.84 per ounce. U.S. gold futures for June delivery fell 0.2% to $4,741.50. “What provided bid was signs of a potential breakthrough in the Lebanon ceasefire earlier this morning. But that happened to coincide with the economic data release,” said Daniel Ghali, commodity strategist at TD Securities. The U.S. is set to host a second meeting between Lebanese and Israeli envoys on Thursday, with Beirut seeking the extension of the ceasefire, a day after Israel killed at least five people including a journalist in airstrikes. “Certainly yields and the data are playing a role, but all asset prices, including gold, are moving with headlines,” Ghali said. Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields let go of most gains, after rising to an over one-week high earlier, decreasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Meanwhile, more Americans filed claims for unemployment benefits last week than anticipated. Initial claims for unemployment benefits rose by 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 214,000 for the week ended April 18, up from Reuters’ poll of 210,000. The Iran war has boosted oil prices, with Brent trading above $100 a barrel on Thursday as peace talks between the U.S. and Iran stalled and restrictions on trade through the Strait of Hormuz continued. Soaring energy prices tend to boost inflation, leading to higher chances of an increase in interest rates. Even though gold is seen as an inflation hedge, higher interest rates dampen the non-yielding asset’s appeal. Spot silver fell 2.3% to $75.89 per ounce, while platinum lost 2% to $2,032.77, both having hit more than one-week lows earlier. Palladium was down 2.2% at $1,511.17, after touching a more than two-week low.
On the day gold closed up $34.10 at $4732.50, and silver closed up $1.48 at $77.89.
On Friday (4/24/26) the price of gold drifted mildly higher as traders worked to figure out what will eventually provide the spark for higher or lower prices based on the latest geopolitical fallout. The tea leaves are not providing much in the way of input but a look at what the technical guys have to say may provide guidance. For gold to untether itself it would have to have to show some sustainable momentum above $5000.00, and silver above $83.24. My bet is that prices of both gold and silver will drift mildly higher going into the weekend. If the so-called Thorium Solution develops into a workable solution, it could cool the Middle East and stabilize gold and silver prices in the short term. The most recent high for gold was early 2026 touching $5589.38. And the most recent high for silver was $121.67 at the same time. Since then, we have been moving higher or lower depending on the latest from the political rumor mill and short term interest rates. I like gold bullion, but fresh record highs may have to wait until the Fed lowers interest rates. It is quiet this week, but this lull may be just the eye of the storm. Across our trading desk the numbers are subdued. Investors are holding gold and selling silver bullion. It’s interesting that the silver bullion market seems very liquid at current levels, perhaps suggesting that higher prices are in the making so keep your options open and your seat belt fastened.
On the day gold closed up $17.20 at $4722.30, and silver closed up $0.91 at $76.38.
Platinum closed down $7.60 at $2015.00, palladium closed up $16.90 at $1501.50.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, June gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $5,000.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at $4,500.00. First resistance is seen at Thursday’s high of $4,771.30 and then at $4,800.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4,672.20 and then at $4,626.00. May silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the April high of $83.24. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below support at $70.00. First resistance is seen at $76.00 and then at $78.40. Next support at $73.00 and then at $70.00.
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