Commentary for Friday, September 11th, 2026 – Today gold closed up $1.70 at $4366.20, and silver closed up $0.27 at $64.55. It is fair to say that the bulls are getting some small price traction going into the weekend. But keep in mind that with higher interest rates cemented in place by a still hawkish FOMC it is hard to see gold or silver bullion doing much in the shorter term. We could see more sideways to lower pricing action but even this might be optimistic because the war between the United States and Iran has been going on for decades, with no end in sight. These dangerous crosswinds create a volatile geopolitical mess which should underpin safe haven assets like gold and silver bullion for the time being. Last Friday gold closed at $4429.80, and silver closed at $66.05. On the week gold was down $63.60, and silver was down $1.50.
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On Monday (9/7/26) the US markets were closed for Labor Day.
On Tuesday (9/8/26) the price of gold seems to be in a mode of consolidation, moving from mildly in the green to mildly in the red. It’s likely that traders are testing support around $4500.00, which is surprisingly strong considering the ECB (European Central Bank) is expected to raise their interest rates this week. Most investors will be watching carefully the latest CPI (Consumer Price Index) inflation data (4%), which does not seem to be cooling enough to avoid similar action. But the FOMC seems to prefer the PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) which is broader in scope. In my view neither measure brings welcome news, pointing to higher inflation rates and therefore, lower prices in gold and silver. All that being said, the still rising tension between Trump and Iran promises something is amiss. And this may spur another round of fireworks. But we may have to wait for fresh new highs in gold and silver given steady to perhaps higher interest rates sooner than later. As far as business across our trading desk, the volume numbers on the first day of this short week suggest the public is not doing much buying or selling, waiting instead to see how these crosswinds shake out before making decisions.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – $4,500 Caps Momentum Ahead of CPI – Gold trades near $4,450 below key $4,500 resistance as CPI, central bank policy and geopolitical risks keep the technical outlook neutral. Technical Analysis – The gold market finds itself bouncing around the $4,450 region, just above the 50-day EMA and just below the $4,500 level. This is an area that I am very interested in at the moment, as it has been important. This is a market that has a lot of different things going on at the same time, not the least of which would be geopolitical risk and oil causing a lot of potential inflationary concerns. There are several things coming up in the next few days that could have an influence on gold, not the least of which would be CPI on Friday, as it could influence the Federal Reserve next Wednesday and the expectations around a rate hike. The Safety Bid Is Still Out There With the War – The ECB is expected to raise rates by a quarter basis point this week. And with that, the question is, will higher interest rates continue to keep gold somewhat suppressed? The safety bid is still out there with the war, but ironically, the war is also causing inflation and inflation expectations that are keeping the metals suppressed. So, you have a situation where gold doesn’t have anywhere to go. What we really will be watching for, in my opinion, is any type of divergence in central bank behavior. If one central bank sounds a little bit more dovish than the other, that can influence the US dollar, which has a significant influence on gold. Right now, it looks very neutral, and that does make a certain amount of sense because, with all of this information coming out, and of course, the errant Middle East headline, this is a tight market to be trading. Silver Price Forecast: $65–$70 Range Holds Ahead of CPI – Silver remains confined between $65 support and $70 resistance, with the 50-day and 200-day EMAs flat. Upcoming ECB, CPI and Federal Reserve decisions could provide the catalyst for a larger move. Technical Analysis – The silver market seems somewhat tight at the moment, as we are sitting just above the 50-day EMA as well as the 200-day EMA. The market seems to be consolidating in a range of $65 on the bottom and $70 on the top. The 200-day and the 50-day EMA are both flat, and this does make a certain amount of sense if you think about what’s going on around the world. Interest rates remain elevated, and that tends to work against the value of non-yielding assets such as silver. It Has Held Up Fairly Well – Ultimately, this is a market that is dealing with the 10-year at points in time going to 4.8%. But we also have heavy inflation coming out of the crude oil market, and that could be a bit of an issue as well. As long as the oil situation remains so messy with the headlines coming out of the Persian Gulf, it’s difficult to imagine that the bond markets will be calm. This is a scenario that has been the norm for some time now, and there are no signs of it changing in the short-term. Furthermore, we get the ECB rate hike, at least the expected rate hike, on Thursday. We also get CPI on Friday in the United States and then a Federal Reserve potential rate hike next week. There’s a lot going on in the short term. It has held up fairly well. I do have to say that, but it just doesn’t have any momentum. Short-term traders are probably attracted to the somewhat well-defined range at the moment, as the markets are simply not giving bigger moves currently.
On the day gold closed down $35.90 at $4393.90, and silver closed up $0.25 at $66.30.
On Wednesday (9/9/26) the price of gold tested overhead resistance at $4425.00 and found short term support at $4380.00 which is not much of a bullish endorsement considering the Middle East is creating more fireworks, with little hope of a settlement. Iran attacked 10 ships after the US sank 5 Iranian oil tankers. With such hostility I’m surprised gold is not moving dramatically higher. Especially after Trump called Iran mentally sick and told the world that the US would not let such a country have nuclear weapons. This latest exchange sounds like a “let the chips fall where they may” speech. I expect that over time such explosive rhetoric will support safe haven demand but in the short term gold only managed to finish mildly in the green. As the Middle East paradox remains an enigma and the smart money keeps their seat belts fastened.
FXEmpire (James Hyerczyk) – Yen-Led Dollar Drop Gives Gold a Bid Ahead of PPI and CPI – The yen is driving the dollar lower. The yen traded near 153.32 per dollar Wednesday after reaching a seven-month high of 152.89 Tuesday. The currency has gained about 4% this month. Traders expect the Bank of Japan to raise rates by 25 basis points at its September 17-18 meeting. The carry trade is coming under pressure and the yen is the reason the dollar index is sitting at a two-week low. The euro rose to $1.1641 as the European Central Bank is expected to raise rates Thursday. Two major central banks tightening in the same week put the dollar on the defensive across several currency pairs. Gold took what the dollar gave it Wednesday. The dollar is not falling because the U.S. inflation picture improved. It is falling because the yen and the euro are repricing for their own rate moves. Those are separate trades. Brent Through $100 Keeps the Inflation Problem Alive – Brent crude pushed above $100 a barrel Wednesday for the first time since July 24. WTI ran above $95 after Iranian forces attacked shipping and a U.S. military base in Jordan. Washington said it had destroyed Iranian oil tankers. The conflict is escalating, not stabilizing. Gold traders already know what crude at these levels does to the rate conversation. Treasury Yields Are Not Backing Off – The two-year yield climbed above 4.42% Wednesday. The 10-year held near 4.81%. The 30-year was near 5.25%. None of those levels have come in despite the dollar weakness. The two-year is the rate-sensitive end of the curve. It is still pricing the September hike as a live event. The 10-year and 30-year at these levels are keeping conditions tight. PPI and CPI Land With Crude at These Levels – Thursday’s Producer Price Index and Friday’s Consumer Price Index are the last major inflation reports before the Fed meets September 15-16. Traders already have the September rate-hike probability near 60%. A soft number gives gold buyers more room to work with while the dollar stays weak. A hot number after crude’s run through $100 puts yields back in control. Technical Analysis – Spot gold is edging higher on Wednesday after recovering from an early session setback to $4,341.26. The rebound is now threatening to overtake yesterday’s high at $4,442.98, which would turn $4,341.26 into a new minor bottom. The main trend is down according to the main swing chart. It turned down last week when sellers took out $4,311.04, trading down to $4,282.62. The subsequent counter-trend rally to $4,510.93 changed $4,282.62 into a new main bottom. A trade through this level will reaffirm the downtrend, while a move through $4,510.93 changes the main trend to up. Looking at the retracement zones, resistance is $4,489.87 to $4,538.77. This zone stopped the rally at $4,510.93 on September 3. On the downside, the key support zone is $4,319.60 to $4,230.51. This area stopped the selling at $4,282.62 on September 2. Moving average support is being provided by the 50-day at $4,262.18. Moving average resistance is the 200-day at $4,537.36. The potential support cluster formed by the swing bottom at $4,282.62 and the 50-day moving average at $4,262.18 is the downside target. Counter-trend buyers could come in on a test of this area, but if it fails, the next trigger point for a near-term acceleration to the downside is the 61.8% level at $4,230.51. A move through $4,510.93 could create the upside momentum to challenge the resistance cluster formed by the 200-day moving average at $4,537.36 and the 61.8% level at $4,538.77. The latter is a potential trigger point for an acceleration to the upside. What to Watch – The dollar is doing the short-term work for gold. The dollar is doing the short-term work for gold. The BOJ and the ECB are both tightening within the next week, which is why the dollar index is sitting at a two-week low instead of rallying on crude above $100. PPI Thursday and CPI Friday are the last prints before September 16. The inflation data decides whether yields take control back from the currency trade. The near-term lean is to the downside with the main trend down and a secondary lower top already in place. The support cluster at $4,282.62 to $4,262.18 is the downside target. The bias shifts bullish on a move through $4,510.93, which would change the main trend and open the resistance cluster near the 200-day. Wednesday’s rally is counter-trend until the market proves otherwise. Silver Price Forecast: $68 Resistance Holds Ahead of CPI – Silver stalls near $68 as traders await PPI, CPI and the Fed decision, with prices remaining choppy inside a broader $65-to-$70 trading range. Technical Analysis – The silver market initially tried to rally during the session on Wednesday but gave up gains to show signs of hesitation near $68. The $68 level has been short-term resistance, but I look at this more like a market bouncing around between $65 and $70. Currently, we are expecting a couple of announcements over the next few days that could have something to say as to where silver goes. PPI is on Thursday, and CPI is on Friday. Those are our last two inflationary measures before the next Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday of next week. This all could have a certain amount of influence on silver, as it is very sensitive to interest rates and where they are going, so I am watching that closely. Pretty Good Longer-term Outlook for Silver – Overall, though, when I look at this, I cannot help but think the market is just on pins and needles, waiting to see what the next shot across the bow is, which might be literal if we are talking about tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, as energy prices are driving up inflation expectations. The longer-term outlook for silver is actually pretty good. It is part of the electrification and AI trade as far as the build-out is concerned, and there is obvious demand from there. But at the same time, it is sensitive to interest rates, and that is part of what the drag has been. For myself, I am looking at this as a short-term, choppy, range-bound market, with a bit of the occasional volatility out there.
On the day gold closed up $22.10 at $4416.00, and silver closed up $1.64 at $67.94.
On Thursday (9/10/26) – Today the price of gold was choppy, testing overhead resistance at $4431.00 and underlying support at $4326.00, finishing the day in the red, but not enough red to alarm the bullish rank and file, at least for now. That being said, gold pricing in the near future will depend on two factors. The first, and the most important, will be how aggressive the FOMC gets in trying to cool off the obvious spike in inflation. The second, and still very important factor, is the developing danger in the Middle East. The war between Israel, Iran and the United States is six months old, volatile and does not present much hope of being solved. I believe the collision of these factors should have been expected because they are the result of a very old religious dispute which can now be better understood as Yemen tilts toward full scale war and the Saudi-Houthi clashes escalate. The result is reflected in the price of crude oil as it tops $100.00 a barrel. Insuring even higher inflation between now and the holidays. The wise will now say it’s time to batten down the hatches. A nautical term in which sailors covered a ship’s deck openings during heavy storms. Investors should remember that Iran is a theocratic Islamic republic with a legal system based on Islamic law which derives its authority from the Koran.
Reuters (Pablo) – Gold falls over 1% as U.S. inflation data boosts Fed hike bets – Gold prices dropped over 1% on Thursday after robust U.S. inflation data and rising oil prices increased bets for a Federal Reserve rate hike next week. Spot gold slipped 1.2% to $4,349.32 per ounce by 9:24 a.m. EDT (1324 GMT), while U.S. gold futures fell 1.6% to $4,391.30. The producer price index data “sort of tells us that there has been a bit of a pickup in underlying inflation in the U.S. economy, and a part of that is due to rising energy costs,” said Kyle Rodda, senior financial market analyst at Capital.com. U.S. producer prices increased in line with expectations in August amid a rebound in the cost of energy products. Traders are now pricing a 70% chance of a rate hike next week, up from 62% before the data, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. A majority of economists polled by Reuters expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady at its September 15-16 meeting and for the rest of this year. The U.S. dollar climbed, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive in other currencies, while higher benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields further pressured gold. Bonds has to reflect more persistent and higher inflationary pressures from higher oil prices, which is seeing gold prices drop, Rodda added. Rising bond yields typically pressure gold by increasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. Oil prices jumped 4% on Thursday with benchmark Brent crude hitting $105 a barrel, after the biggest spike in attacks on shipping since the start of the U.S.-Iran war spurred supply disruption concerns. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank on Thursday raised interest rates the second time this year, seeking to quell an energy-driven rise in inflation triggered by the war. Among other metals, spot silver slid 4.2% to $64.47 per ounce, platinum dropped 4.9% to $1,802.48 and palladium fell 4.3% to $1,295.23.
On the day gold closed down $51.50 at $4364.50, and silver closed down $3.66 at $64.28.
On Friday (9/11/26) gold bounced on both sides of unchanged in the early trade, which is not very promising considering yesterday’s fall of $51.50. But some insiders see a possible short term floor despite strong inflation data which lifts expectations that the Federal Reserve will push interest rates higher next week. Still, the 9/11 mood today is somber and serves to refocus the attack which took place in 2001. It should remind us that the United States faces resolute enemies worldwide. I served in the Air Force during Vietnam and this training proved valuable in that it taught military men and women to expect the unexpected. Insiders believe there will be another dangerous attack, it is a myth to believe al-Qaeda is no longer a serious threat. Their next attack will use a completely different approach, but it will be deadly. I’m not suggesting that you turn paranoid but keep your eyes open and ask questions. And remember that the first al-Qaeda pilots only asked for flight training and carried only box cutters!
Reuters (Pablo Sinha) – Gold climbs on dip buying, Fed hike bets rise after US inflation data – Gold prices firmed over 1% on Friday, rebounding from recent losses and finding a short-term floor despite strong U.S. inflation data lifting expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike next week. Spot gold rose 1.6% to $4,385.14 per ounce by 9:23 a.m. EDT (1323 GMT). However, the metal was down about 1% for the week so far. “Gold is recovering rapidly after a brief dip, as CPI data may be cementing expectations of a Fed rate hike next week. The volatility is somewhat muted, as market had a hike of 70% priced in,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. “Price action here suggests that gold is finding a short-term base after the recent retreat.” U.S. gold futures gained 0.5% to $4,426.90. Prices fell nearly 2% on Thursday after the U.S. Producer Price Index data showed prices increased in line with expectations in August amid a rebound in the cost of energy products. The Consumer Price Index increased 0.4% last month after edging up 0.1% in July, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday. In the 12 months through August consumer inflation advanced 3.4% after rising by the same margin in July. Oil prices fell on Friday but remained on course for a weekly gain. Higher oil prices stoke inflation fears and bolster expectations of the Fed raising interest rates. While gold is seen as an inflation hedge, higher interest rates diminish the appeal of non-yielding bullion. Meanwhile, traders are now pricing in an 85% chance of a rate hike at the central bank’s policy meeting next week, up from 67% before the data, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Gold demand in India was subdued this week as volatile prices discouraged buyers, while investment demand remained strong in top consumer China. Among other metals, spot silver rose 2.1% to $64.86 per ounce but was down 2% for the week. Platinum climbed 1.5% to $1,803.94 and palladium gained 2.9% to $1,318.91. However, both metals were on track for a weekly loss.
On the day gold closed up $1.70 at $4366.20, and silver closed up $0.27 at $64.55.
Platinum closed down $3.60 at $1793.50, and palladium closed up $29.60 at $1310.90.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,341.00 resistance level, with a sustained move targeting $4,375.00 and then $4,435.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,288.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,254.00 and then $4,218.00. First resistance is seen at $4,341.00 and then at $4,375.00. First support is seen at $4,288.00 and then at $4,254.00. Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $64.48, with a move above that level targeting $65.61 and then $66.70. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $62.55, with deeper downside targets at $61.37 and then $60.87. First resistance is seen at $64.48 and then at $65.61. Next support is seen at $62.55 and then at $61.37.
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