Commentary for Friday, September 18, 2026 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed up $25.70 at $4385.90, and silver closed up $1.09 at $66.56. In what I consider a surprising move traders are testing overhead resistance this morning around $4400.00. This latest rally was sold by the paper trade and gold then tested support around $4345.00 but finished nicely in the green. All in all, as they say, this weekly finish should encourage the bulls and may offer even higher prices next week. Which again is surprising given that interest rates remain firm, and Fed Chief Kevin Warsh is no pushover even as Trump bangs the drum for lower interest rates. The Fed increased interest rates this past Wednesday by a quarter point which was expected. There is a possibility of another quarter point hike before the end of the year which suggests that fresh record highs in gold may have to wait until next year. The wild card is the growing tension in the Middle East. The war between the United States and Iran threatens to upset the balance of world trade and further increase the price of crude oil, the highly inflationary result may set the stage for record prices in gold this year. Last Friday gold closed at $4366.20, and silver closed at $64.65. On the week gold was higher by $19.70, and silver was higher by $1.91.
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On Monday (9/14/26) the price of gold dipped on the open testing support around $4256.00, so the bulls are not too happy as higher interest rates take their toll on bullish sentiment. Still, Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan favor higher gold prices over the longer term but point out that investors will face volatility over the short term. In my opinion higher interest rates between now and the end of this year will cement the current drift in gold to the downside. But it is also important to note that that the outcome of the escalating war between the United States and Iran will likely underpin, to some degree, gold’s current pricing range. I’m less optimistic now than I was when gold tested overhead resistance at $5000.00, but I’m looking for higher gold prices, especially if the FOMC blinks and decides lower interest rates this or even next year is prudent.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Price Forecast: $4,325 Support in Focus Ahead of Fed – Gold tests its 200-day EMA as rising yields weigh on prices ahead of the Fed, with $4,325 emerging as a critical level for potential breakdown risk. Technical Analysis – The gold market has fallen a bit to kick off the trading week as we are hanging around the 200-day EMA, trying to figure out where to go next. This market will continue to see this as an important level to watch. That being said, the market is a little oversold as far as the range is concerned that we have been in for the last couple of weeks. So, let’s see how we behave here. The interest rate situation continues to be one that is very conducive to potential selling of non-yielding assets such as gold. Energy Inflation – As traders are trying to price in inflation from an energy standpoint, the Federal Reserve has an interest rate decision and press conference on Wednesday that will almost certainly have an influence on this market. So, in the next day or two, it could be a bit quiet with more of a sideways tilt. We’ll just have to wait and see. Either way, this is a market that does not look overly bullish. In fact, we could even make an argument for a little bit of a head-and-shoulders pattern. If that were to break down, basically right around the $4,325 level, that could technically, at least, be a very bad sign. Just as a bounce from here could be a good sign, in the sense that we could be looking at more continuation of the overall grind sideways. Gold, I suspect, will probably be watching the Federal Reserve very closely on Wednesday, and of course, bond yields in America, as we are trying to price in energy inflation, thereby driving yields higher. Silver Price Forecast: Fed Decision Puts $63 Support at Risk – Silver faces Fed-driven pressure as rising U.S. rates weigh on prices. With $63 support in focus, traders watch for a bounce or deeper move toward $60. The silver market has fallen a bit during the early part of the trading session here on Monday. As interest rates in America continue to rise, you also have to keep in mind that there is a Federal Reserve interest rate decision on Wednesday. That will have a major influence on what happens next with non-yielding assets such as silver and gold. This will be a very important week. That being said, in the short term, it looks like the sellers are probably going to continue to be a little bit aggressive, in the sense that interest rates continue to spike, and that does work against non-yielding assets such as silver. Long-Term Demand Still Remains – Longer term, silver still has a good story to tell when it comes to the electrification of the economy and the fact that there isn’t enough silver coming out of the ground to overwhelm demand. With that being said, longer term, I still like the silver market, but in the short term, it is going to continue to react to these crazy interest-rate movements as traders try to price in the idea of energy inflation really taking hold. With this, I am more bearish than bullish, but I recognize that we are at the bottom of a range that we have been in for a couple of weeks, so a bounce would not surprise me either. The market has been bouncing around between $63 and $68, with an eye on $70 above as a potential ceiling and $60 below as a potential floor in the market at the moment.
On the day gold closed down $56.20 at $4310.00, and silver closed down $1.04 at $63.51.
On Tuesday (9/15/26) the price of gold dipped on the open testing support at $4260.00 and overhead resistance at $4298.00, closing mildly in the red for the day. Most see the FOMC raising interest rates a quarter of a point, on Wednesday so this bearish sentiment is figured in today’s pricing. The next play will be figure out if the Fed will raise interest rates another quarter of a point by Christmas. Investors should consider that this first rate increase will be a “one and done” event, which would be a big bullish plus. It is also possible that the ongoing war between the United States and Iran will provide fresh safe haven demand and this rise in Middle East tension could set the stage for higher prices. Across our trading desk the public is not doing much buying or selling gold or silver bullion. It would seem investors are content to watch this current drama play out and see if events favor higher or lower prices in the short term.
Reuters (Noel John) – Gold edges down as oil-driven inflation fears lift rate-hike bets – Gold prices fell on Tuesday, pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar and elevated U.S. Treasury yields, as a rally in crude oil prices fueled inflation worries and bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates this week. Spot gold was down 0.3% at $4,285.88 per ounce, as of 9:23 a.m. EDT (1323 GMT), after hitting its lowest point since August 7 on Monday. U.S. gold futures fell 0.6% to $4,325.80. “Higher energy prices cause more inflation. More inflation could cause higher interest rates. That’s not good for gold … gold is in kind of a range-bound area. It could actually sell off more if rates continue to move higher,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at StoneX. Traders now await the Fed’s rate decision, which is due to be announced at 2 p.m. EDT (1800 GMT) on Wednesday. Financial markets are betting heavily that U.S. central bank policymakers will lift the benchmark overnight interest rate by a quarter of a percentage point to the 3.75%-4.00% range, and signal further tightening ahead. “I think a lot of (rate-hike fears are) already baked in. It really depends on what the Fed says afterward. Are they going to continue to raise rates? Are they going to monitor the situation? Overall, it’s not a good look for gold,” Pavilonis said. The dollar rose, making greenback-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies, while benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose to their highest level since 2007. While gold is traditionally viewed as a hedge against inflation and geopolitical uncertainty, higher yields on risk-free Treasuries reduce the appeal of the non-yielding metal. “Much of the hawkish Fed risk appears to be priced in. However, gold could remain vulnerable if policymakers signal rates will stay higher for longer,” analysts at ING said in a note. Oil prices edged higher after attacks on Saudi Arabian energy infrastructure left the kingdom’s East-West Pipeline offline, raising fears that damage to energy infrastructure and transport routes could take longer to repair. Among other metals, spot silver rose 0.7% to $63.64, platinum gained 0.8% to $1,773.13 and palladium was up 0.5% at $1,299.76.
On the day gold closed down $18.40 at $4291.60, and silver closed down $0.27 at $63.24.
On Wednesday (9/16/26) the price of gold got off to a pretty good start, moving between $4329.00 and $4355.00 as traders waited for the upcoming quarter point rise in interest rates expected after the commercial close today. All eyes and ears were on Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference and updated interest rate projections. Most expected that quarter point hike, but the vote was unanimous, which suggests that another rate hike was likely before the end of this year. That is why traders saw the price of gold break down at $4300.00 and test recent lows at $4225.00. At any rate, bearish sentiment is gaining momentum, and such pricing action suggests that even lower prices may be in the making. But I’m less pessimistic that lower prices in gold and silver bullion are guaranteed given the deteriorating geopolitical situation created over a stalemate in the Middle East. This rising tension between Iran and the United States could easily produce the fireworks necessary to create another attempt at $5000.00 gold.
FXEmpire (James Hyerczyk) – Gold Catches a Bid but the Fed Decides If It Holds – Gold is higher Wednesday because the three forces that hammered it all week let up at the same time. Oil came off Tuesday’s highs. The 10-year slipped below 5%. The dollar stopped climbing against the yen, the euro and the New Zealand dollar. That was enough to start the first real short-covering rally since the selloff began Monday. It is a pre-decision trade and nothing more. The Fed is expected to raise rates at 18:00 GMT with inflation above target and crude above $100. Warsh talks at 18:30 GMT. Everything between now and then is positioning. At 13:45 GMT, Spot Gold (XAUUSD) is trading $4342.42, up $48.54 or +1.13%. The 10-Year Below 5% Was All Gold Needed – The 10-year dropped to 4.973% Wednesday. The 30-year eased to 5.347% and the 2-year fell to 4.634%. First time all three moved in gold’s direction since Monday. Tuesday’s article called 5% the line and the slip below it gave sellers a reason to cover ahead of the announcement. The dollar index held near 99.67 but stopped advancing. It has been gaining all week against every major currency. Wednesday’s stall came with the yield pullback and the combination opened the window for gold. That window stays open only as long as the 10-year stays below 5%. A move back above that level after Warsh talks and the bounce is over. Crude Gave Gold Room but Has Not Left the Building – The American Petroleum Institute reported a 7.1-million-barrel crude build Tuesday night. WTI slipped toward $105. Brent fell toward $108. Gold got the lift because the immediate inflation pressure came down with the barrel price.
The Saudi pipeline is damaged. Hormuz is thin. Diesel is at record highs in Europe and above $6 in the U.S. None of that changed on the API number. Crude backed off a data point. The physical shortage underneath the oil trade did not respond. If oil turns higher after Warsh talks, the inflation argument walks right back into the gold market and this morning’s bounce becomes the setup for another selloff. The metal needs crude to stay off Tuesday’s levels through the press conference and that is a lot to ask with the supply story still running. Gold Needs One Thing From Warsh – Fed funds futures have the hike at 93% odds. The move lifts the target range to 3.75% to 4.00%. August CPI showed annual inflation at 3.4%. The PCE measure rose 3.7% annually in July. Crude above $100 on top of those numbers is what Warsh has to address at 18:30 GMT. Gold does not need Warsh to sound dovish. It needs him to sound done. One hike, one acknowledgment that recent data required a response, and then nothing about December or oil keeping inflation elevated into year-end. That is a narrow path and the market knows it. Warsh has spent the last three months talking about prices being too high. Asking him to stop now with crude above $100 is asking a lot. But gold’s bounce today is built entirely on the bet that he will. The Bank of Japan meets Friday with expectations for a rate hike to a 31-year high. Two major central banks tightening in the same week is not the backdrop gold buyers want. The Fed is the one that matters more but the BOJ adds weight to the wrong side of the scale. Technical Analysis – Spot Gold is edging higher on Wednesday after a third successful test this week of a key retracement zone and short-term moving average. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $4253.63 will signal a resumption of the downtrend. The trend changes to up on a move through $4510.93. The market is trying to establish support at the 50-day moving average at $4280.99. The 200-day moving average at $4540.06 is resistance. The short-term range is $3942.10 to $4697.11. Its retracement zone is $4319.60 to $4230.51. On September 2, Spot Gold made a low from inside this zone at $4282.62. It led to a rally to $4510.93. This week, the market hit a low on Monday at $4261.38. Today, it hit an intraday high at $4360.50. A new minor range has formed between $4510.93 and $4253.64. What to Watch – Wednesday comes down to one press conference. The market already paid for the hike. Gold already got the bounce from yields slipping below 5% and the dollar going quiet. Now Warsh has to talk and everything gold gained today is on the table. If he sounds like December is still live, this morning’s rally was the exit for late shorts, not the start of a recovery. If he sounds finished, gold has room to run because the metal held its floor three times this week while yields were at their worst and sellers could not break it. The bias leans bearish with the main trend down on the daily swing chart, but the bears have a credibility problem. The 50-day moving average at $4280.99 and the retracement zone at $4319.60 to $4230.51 stopped the selling Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. Three tests and three failures to break through is not a pattern that gives sellers confidence heading into a Fed decision. A push through $4382.28 would be a normal retracement and not a threat to the trend. A move beyond it is different. That puts the main trend at risk with the swing top at $4510.93 as the level that changes direction. On the downside, a break through $4253.63 would end the support defense that has been frustrating sellers with $4230.51 as the level where real damage starts.
On the day gold closed up $54.70 at $4346.30, and silver closed up $1.05 at $64.29.
On Thursday (9/17/26) – Today investors had a small smile on their faces because traders bought yesterday’s test of support. The price of gold moved steadily higher in the early trade testing overhead resistance at $4370.00 but finishing only mildly in the green. To me this shows that bearish sentiment is moving lower, still there are some looking for another quarter point interest rate hike before the end of this year. I consider a second hike unlikely considering the recent weakness in the housing sector. It’s possible however that gold will revisit recent weakness in the next few months. But I believe many are looking for fresh safe haven demand sparked by rising tension in the Middle East so the wise will keep their seat belts fastened. I believe J.P. Morgan is a bit over amped, claiming we will see $6000.00 gold by year end.
Reuters (Noel John) – Gold gains over 2% on weaker dollar, easing oil prices – Gold gained more than 2% on Thursday, rebounding from the previous session’s near six-week low, supported by easing oil prices and a lower US dollar, while investors assessed the latest Federal Reserve rate hike and policy cues. Spot gold was up 2.4% at $4,364.29 per ounce, as of 9:11 a.m. EDT (1311 GMT). US gold futures for December delivery rose 0.4% to $4,404.80. “We’ve been tied very closely to an inverse relationship with energy prices based on those inflationary pressures … Energy prices are down fairly dramatically today. So it’s these lower energy prices that are removing some of that pressure on the gold market,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Oil prices extended their fall into a second straight day to a one-week low on diminishing fears of supply disruptions, while the dollar eased from a seven-week high, making greenback-priced bullion more affordable for holders of other currencies. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury also slipped. High yields on risk-free U.S. Treasuries dampen the appeal of the non-yielding metal. The Fed raised rates on Wednesday and flagged more hikes in the coming months, with Chair Kevin Warsh joining a unanimous decision that effectively acknowledges the Trump administration’s inability so far to control inflation that policymakers worry could worsen. Traders now see a 51% chance of another US rate hike when the central bankers meet next in October, compared with nearly 44% a day ago, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Although gold is considered an inflation hedge, a high-interest-rate environment reduces its appeal by boosting the attractiveness of interest-bearing assets. “Rising fiscal deficits, higher debt burdens, an eventual weakening of the US dollar, and our expectation that the Fed will resume easing next year should support gold despite the near-term volatility,” UBS said in a note. The Bank of England held interest rates unchanged on Thursday, while the Bank of Japan is expected to raise interest rates to a 31-year high on Friday and signal its readiness to keep pushing up borrowing costs. Spot silver rose 3.9% to $65.44 per ounce, platinum gained 2.1% to $1,787.68 and palladium climbed 2.2% to $1,296.86.
On the day gold closed up $13.90 at $4360.20, and silver closed up $1.18 at $65.47.
On Friday (9/18/26) gold showed bullish spirit which should illustrate to investors just how quickly and volatile this trade has become. Yesterday I was worried that steady to growing interest rates would pressure the price of gold lower. Today I’m not so sure and may have switched sides, now looking for higher prices. The bounce in the price of gold represents a big plus which might be pointing to a short term bottom. “These positions have been rapidly unwound,” said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at EverBank. Brent crude oil prices extended losses for a third straight session as easing concerns over Saudi supply disruptions outweighed anxiety about a widening of conflict across the Middle East. Lower oil prices offered some relief from inflation worries, but the risk of a Middle East supply shock remains a key concern. Across our trading desk we have also seen significant gold bullion buying.
Reuters (Noel John) – Gold climbs to one-week high, heads for weekly gain on easing oil prices – Gold prices climbed to a one-week high on Friday and were on track for their first weekly gain in four, as lower oil prices eased concerns about prolonged inflationary pressures, though a stronger dollar limited gains. Spot gold was up 0.7% at $4,372.27 per ounce by 09:16 a.m. EDT (1316 GMT), after hitting its highest level since September 11 earlier in the session. Bullion has gained 0.6% so far this week. US gold futures rose 0.3% to $4,411.20. “Easing oil prices reduces inflation pressures as oil has been the main driver of overall inflation… Precious metal investors had expected a (US) rate hike and piled into short positions to take advantage of the expected selloff in gold. These positions have been rapidly unwound,” said Chris Gaffney, president of world markets at EverBank. Brent crude oil prices extended losses for a third straight session as easing concerns over Saudi supply disruptions outweighed anxiety about a widening of conflict across the Middle East. Lower oil prices offered some relief from inflation worries, but the risk of a Middle East supply shock remains a key concern. The dollar rose to a more than seven-week high, making greenback-priced bullion expensive for holders of other currencies. The Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to the 3.75%-4% range on Wednesday and flagged more hikes in the coming months. Traders now see a 58% chance of another US rate hike when the central bankers meet next in October, according to the CME FedWatch tool. Although gold is traditionally seen as a hedge against inflation, higher rates can make it less attractive by increasing the appeal of yield-bearing assets. Additionally, the Bank of Japan raised interest rates to a 31-year high and signaled its readiness to keep pushing up borrowing costs. Meanwhile, gold demand in India was subdued this week as buyers held back purchases in anticipation of lower prices, while premiums in China remained steady, supported by robust investment demand. “Gold is currently testing resistance near the $4,400 to $4,440 range and a move above this resistance level could clear a path higher for gold prices,” said Gaffney. Spot silver rose 2.3% to $66.69, platinum gained 1.7% to $1,799.69 and palladium added 1.9% at $1,315.20. All metals were headed for a weekly gain.
On the day gold closed up $25.70 at $4385.90, and silver closed up $1.09 at $66.56.
Platinum closed up $12.10 at $1803.50, and palladium closed up $16.00 at $1306.20.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,381.00 resistance level, with a sustained move targeting $4,396.15 and then $4,966.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,281.62, with deeper downside targets at $4,270.00 and then $4,235.00. First resistance is seen at $4,381.00 and then at $4,396.15. First support is seen at $4,281.62 and then at $4,270.00. Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $66.97, with a move above that level targeting $68.33 and then $71.18. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $65.32, with deeper downside targets at $62.98 and then $62.31. First resistance is seen at $66.97 and then at $68.33. Next support is seen at $65.32 and then at $62.98.
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