Commentary for Friday, July 31, 2026 – Today gold closed down $51.00 at $4049.10, and silver closed down $1.23 at $57.59. The price of gold moved lower going into the weekend as traders believe a change in the Middle East war might be in the making. I don’t see this as some sort of regime change which may have been on the President’s mind the last time, when he decided the US should call the shots in the Middle East. At any rate a deal with Iran, in the open or under the table should be approached with skepticism. Hamas was formed in 1987 as a Palestinian Islamist militant group which rejects the existence of Israel. Now don’t get me wrong, I always keep an open mind about some arrangement which promises peace in this troubled area. But I would not be selling much gold bullion even though higher interest rates may suggest lower future prices. Last Friday gold closed at $4067.60, and silver closed at $58.66. On the week gold was down $18.50, and silver was lower by $1.07.
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On Monday (7/27/26) the price of gold is holding support ($4070.00), a short term plus for the bulls but not the kind of fireworks which might suggest higher prices are in order in the shorter term. This even though the war between the US and Iran continues to perplex insiders. I suspect that rising Middle East tension will only provide short term support, beyond that who knows?
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Holds $4,000 Support as Geopolitical Risks Linger – Gold gapped higher to kick off the week, as we are looking at a market that continues to see a lot of interference from external pressures. Technical Analysis – Gold gaps higher to kick off the trading session on Monday, but it is already starting to roll back over. It is interesting that we find ourselves moving on the latest headlines coming out of the Middle East. There was a pause in military action by the Americans, which the Iranians said they would do the same, and as a result, interest rates have dropped, and a little bit more risk appetite came back into the market. $4,000 Support Level Holds as Gold Trades War Headlines – Ultimately, it’s very likely that markets will still be paying attention to the same issues, mainly the war. The war could drive up inflation via energy, and that has a major influence on bond markets. Higher interest rates make non-yielding assets such as gold a little less attractive. The $4,000 level looks to be significant support, so I’m watching that, but given enough time, we’ll have to make a bigger decision. As things stand right now, it just looks like a market that’s treading water. Traders don’t really seem to be too convinced one way or the other in which direction to go, and with that being the case, it is a market that I think not much has changed over the last couple of weeks, despite the fact that we did gap to the upside. With that being the case, the market remains one that is held hostage by headlines. Silver Tests $60 Level as Death Cross Confirms Trend – Silver gaps higher to kick off Monday as rates dropped again, giving ‘non-yielding assets’ a lifeline. Technical Analysis – The silver market has gapped higher to kick off the trading session on Monday as interest rates have dropped, offering a little bit of relief for these non-yielding assets. That being said, we find ourselves hanging around the $60 level, which is an area where a lot of large round, psychologically important aspects of the markets come into play. And with that being the case, I think we have a market that’s dancing around an area that causes some headlines. We’ve recently seen the 50-day EMA break down below the 200-day EMA, kicking off the so-called death cross, and that, of course, is a signal that a lot of longer-term traders look at as very bearish, and can sometimes attract algorithmic traders as well. Death Cross and $55 Support Test Weigh on Long-Term Trend – The market recently tested the $55 level for support, then bounced, but we can see a series of lower highs and lower lows on the chart, although it has stabilized somewhat in the recent past. The headlines coming out of the Middle East will continue to be influential as to where we go next, and I think this is a market that will remain very noisy. Over the longer term, we should go looking to the overall momentum to pick up and eventually break out of this malaise. The question, of course, is which direction? Unfortunately, this is a market that, like many other markets, has to contend with erratic headlines that influence inflation coming out of the Middle East. And as long as that’s the case, it’s hard to trust anything.
On the day gold closed up $6.90 at $4074.50, and silver closed down $0.19 at $58.47.
On Tuesday (7/28/26) the price of gold drifted lower, testing support around $4017.00 as consumer confidence weakens and dollar strength firms. This week features a two day meeting of the FOMC which will deliver an interest rate decision on Wednesday. I don’t see any chance of the Fed turning dovish at this point because inflation is still troubling. With our economy doing just fine, and President Trump again talking with Iran it would seem that safe haven demand will trend lower, but not to any great degree. Still, given the rising uncertainty in the Middle East there may not be much downside if gold holds up ($4000.00). I don’t see much chance of a surprise hike in interest rates, but the financial markets claim a 35% to 40% chance.
Reuters (Noel John) – Gold falls as dollar hovers near one-month peak; Fed meet in focus – Gold fell on Tuesday, weighed down by a firm dollar that hovered near a one-month high, while investors awaited this week’s U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision and comments from Chair Kevin Warsh for signals on the policy outlook. Spot gold fell 1.1% to $4,032.42 per ounce by 09:27 a.m. EDT (1327 GMT), while U.S. gold futures for August delivery slid 1.1% to $4,032.40. The U.S. dollar steadied near a one-month high on Tuesday, making greenback-priced bullion expensive for buyers overseas. “Elevated energy prices remain an inflationary concern for Fed members, and the expected hawkish tilt by the Fed has forced interest rate hike expectations and the U.S. dollar higher, applying pressure on the gold market,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Bullion has fallen about 24% since the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran began in late February, pressured by expectations that war-driven inflation could keep interest rates higher for longer. While gold is seen as a long-term hedge against inflation, higher rates typically weigh on the non-yielding metal. Investors now await the Fed’s rate decision and Chair Warsh’s comments on Wednesday. Traders see a 69% chance of policymakers holding interest rates steady on Wednesday, while 77% expect a rate hike at the central bank’s September meeting. The U.S. Personal Consumption Expenditures data for June, due on Thursday, is also on the agenda this week, with investors expected to seek further cues on monetary policy. Commerzbank lowered its year-end gold price forecast by $300 to $4,500 per ounce, adding that without a reversal in interest rate expectations, a lasting return of gold ETF investors and a recovery in gold price are unlikely. On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Trump said on Monday Washington was having “good talks” with Iran and that there was the chance of a resolution. However, he said U.S. strikes would resume if negotiations failed, while Iran issued similar comments about retaliation. Among other metals, spot silver dropped 2.2% to $57.10 per ounce, platinum dipped 1.4% to $1,599.26, and palladium fell 2.4% to $1,260.13.
On the day gold closed down $38.20 at $4036.30, and silver closed down $1.17 at $57.30.
On Wednesday (7/29/26) the price of gold moved higher in the early trade testing overhead resistance ($4050.00) but traders sold this modest rally and gold moved into the red testing support at $4000.00. While this is not exactly encouraging, gold has not fallen out of bed awaiting tomorrow’s talk from the new Fed Chief Kevin Warsh. Which presents an interesting side note. Most believe that Warsh will keep interest rates at current levels to battle stubborn inflation. But gold closing almost unchanged today is a bullish plus in a still turbulent market.
FXEmpire (Christpher Lewis) – Gold Holds Above $4,000 Floor Ahead of Fed Decision – The gold market continues to sit just above a major round figure, as we are heading into the Wednesday session, which will feature the Federal Reserve interest rate decision. Technical Analysis – The gold market gapped lower to show signs of negativity at the open on Wednesday as we sit just above the crucial $4,000 level. The $4,000 level, of course, is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and so far has shown a proclivity to be supported all the way down to the $3,900 level. This has been tested a few times recently. The upside is capped at least in the short term from what we’ve seen near the $4,200 level, and the 50-day EMA racing towards that level also has an influence as well. Keep in mind that the Federal Reserve has an interest rate decision later in the day, and as that influences the bond market, it will certainly influence the gold market in tandem. Higher yields typically work against the value of gold, and that certainly has been the case from time to time here recently. Federal Reserve Decision and $4,000 Floor Hold Gold’s Focus – I think ultimately this is a market that will be waiting around and trying to figure out where the next momentum comes into the picture. The Federal Reserve interest rate decision will more likely than not cause volatility, as the FedWatch tool suggests a 40% chance of a hike. In other words, at least 40% of the market will be disappointed or shocked. With that, I would anticipate that things will get a little noisy later in the day. Whether or not that truly changes everything remains to be seen, but as things stand right now, we are at the bottom of a consolidation area, and that in and of itself could cause a little bit of noise. Silver Stalls Below $60 Resistance Ahead of Fed – Silver continues to see pressure on Wednesday, as we see an interest rate decision coming out, and the overall moves of the US dollar continue to weigh on the mind. At this juncture, volatility is possible. Technical Analysis – The silver market continues to show signs of weakness early on Wednesday as traders continue to see a lot of action just below the $60 level. Keep in mind that Wednesday is a Federal Reserve interest rate decision day, and that means volatility. There’s about a 40% chance, based on the FedWatch tool on the likelihood of an interest rate hike, which means there’s going to be a significant amount of the market that’s not happy with the decision. With that, volatility will be more likely than not to pick up. Death Cross and Key Resistance Levels Weigh on Silver – The $60 level is a large round, psychologically significant figure and an area that recently has turned into resistance. The 50-day EMA breaking down below the 200-day EMA also kicked off the so-called death cross about 2 weeks ago, which is also a very negative indicator. To the downside, the $55 level has offered support, and $50 has been important multiple times in the past, going all the way back to the late ’70s, early ’80s, when the Hunt brothers tried to corner the silver market. It was also important during the Great Financial Crisis, and recently we had broken through it for the first time cleanly in history. Now the question is, will we pull back and retest that for support? It’s an area that I think a lot of traders will be watching. As things stand right now, the volatility is likely to pick up, but the downward pressure is still a very real thing.
On the day gold closed down $1.60 at $4034.70, and silver closed up $0.56 at $57.86.
On Thursday (7/30/26) – Today the price of gold pressed higher on the open testing overhead resistance at $4114.00, which is not surprising considering the expanding war between the US and Iran. Then there is the possibility of an interest rate hike in September according to the latest CME data, a bearish overtone. This suggests that traders are not expecting higher gold prices in the shorter term. At the same time, the price of gold may become more comfortable above $4000.00. And as long as Middle East tension remains elevated there may not be much downside in gold even if interest rates trend higher. In the long term the price of gold may seem cheap, but this market can turn volatile out of the blue so investors should use exercise caution.
Reuters (Noel John) – Gold rises on weaker US dollar, soft inflation data – Gold rose on Thursday as the U.S. dollar weakened and inflation eased in line with expectations, with traders dialing back bets on interest rate hikes a day after Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh offered little clarity on the outlook for inflation and monetary policy. Spot gold was up 1.1% to $4,109.94 per ounce by 10:03 a.m. EDT (1403 GMT). U.S. gold futures for August delivery gained 1.9% to $4,108.30. The dollar fell 0.9% as the yen strengthened, while traders remained on alert for possible intervention by Japanese authorities to prop up the battered currency. A weaker dollar makes greenback-priced bullion more affordable for buyers overseas. Prices were little changed after a Commerce Department report showed the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index fell 0.1% in June, in line with economists’ expectations in a Reuters poll. The easing is likely to be temporary as renewed hostilities in the Middle East raise oil prices. The PCE data looks “a little bit better than the market expected. So, for now the environment on the inflation side is more or less stable. However, the oil market is going to continue to be a problem,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. “Inflation is maybe a little contained right now, but that might very easily change if we continue to see instability in the Middle East,” Melek added. The Fed on Wednesday left its benchmark interest rate in the 3.50%-3.75% range. In a press conference after the release of the policy statement, Warsh pledged an unwavering commitment to bring down inflation, a message that left markets confused about just what he was prepared to do. Spot gold prices rose about 2% after the policy decision. Traders now see a 57% chance of a U.S. rate hike at the Fed’s September 15-16 meeting, down from about 77% before the Fed meeting, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Higher-for-longer rates tend to diminish bullion’s appeal due to the metal’s non-yielding characteristic. U.S. jobless claims increased less than expected last week, suggesting labor market conditions remained stable, another government report showed. Oil prices edged down as investors weighed talks between Oman and Iran over the Strait of Hormuz and escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. Spot silver rose 1.5% to $58.52 per ounce, platinum gained 1.9% to $1,641.78, and palladium climbed 3.8% to $1,294.50.
On the day gold closed up $65.40 at $4100.10, and silver closed up $0.96 at $58.82.
On Friday (7/31/26) the price of gold trended lower on the open, moving from $4080.00 through support around $4016.00. So those looking for some sort of momentum surge after yesterday’s big jump to the upside will be disappointed moving into the weekend. Still, professional traders see this as a possible first step in carving out a stable bottom which presents the hope of fresh record prices this year or in 2027. This rather optimistic outlook is misplaced in my mind because the FOMC is committed to holding inflation in check by keeping interest rates steady or perhaps even raising them by the end of year. At the same time the war between the US and Iran continues to escalate, fueled by controlling the shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. CNN claims that Hamas for the first time agrees to give up arms if Israel upholds the Gaza truce. This whole area is a virtual tinder box of rising tension, but some embrace this latest update with cautious optimism and so gold is trending lower into the weekend.
Reuters (Noel John) – Gold retreats but poised to end best month since February – Gold slid 2% on Friday as the U.S. dollar rebounded from a more than one-month low hit in the previous session, though the metal was still on track for its first monthly gain in five as weaker inflation data reduced expectations of further U.S. rate hikes. Spot gold was down 1.8% at $4,027.75 per ounce at 09:59 a.m. EDT (1359 GMT), after falling 2% earlier in the session. U.S. gold futures for August delivery dropped 1.9% to $4,025.10. Gold has gained 0.5% so far this month, its biggest monthly increase since February. The gains have been primarily driven by softer inflation data, which led traders to scale back expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate hikes for the year and as oil prices retreated to pre-Iran war levels earlier this month. “Although gold is on the cusp of ending a 4-month losing streak, the precious metal has struggled to carve a bigger gap above the psychological $4,000 level,” said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Bybit. The metal remains supported above $4,000 by expectations that Fed Chair Kevin Warsh may broaden the central bank’s focus beyond its preferred inflation measures and rate increases, Tan added. Data on Thursday showed U.S. inflation slowed in June, but the easing was likely temporary as renewed hostilities in the Middle East lifted oil prices. Warsh this week pledged an unwavering commitment to bring inflation down without signaling a readiness to raise interest rates. The dollar gained 0.5% after dropping about 2.4% on Thursday, in its biggest one-day drop since January 2023. A stronger dollar makes bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies. Traders see a 65% chance of a rate hike in September, versus a more than 80% chance a week before, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Elsewhere, China’s market regulator urged solar companies to resist “vicious” price competition in a price compliance guidance meeting on Friday, a statement showed. Silver is a key industrial metal used in solar photovoltaic panels.
On the day gold closed down $51.00 at $4049.10, and silver closed down $1.23 at $57.59.
Platinum closed down $1.60 at $1650.30, and palladium closed down $26.60 at $1275.60.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices remain below the 50-period moving average near $4,058 and the 100-period moving average near $4,071, while the metal continues to struggle below the $4,101.10 to $4,114 resistance area. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above $4,101.10, with a sustained move targeting $4,114 and then $4,166. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,049.40, with deeper downside targets at $4,028.40 and then $3,995.20. First resistance is seen at $4,101.10 and then at $4,114. First support is seen at $4,049.40 and then at $4,028.40. Spot silver bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices remain below the 50-period moving average near $58.11 and the 100-period moving average near $58.78, while the metal failed to hold Thursday’s push toward $59.30. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $59.00, with a move above that level targeting $60.03 and then $61.03. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $57.53, with deeper downside targets at $56.88 and then $56.11. First resistance is seen at $59.00 and then at $60.03. Next support is seen at $57.53 and then at $56.88.
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