Commentary for Friday, Aug 7, 2026 – Today gold closed up $98.70 at $4340.70, and silver closed up $1.89 at $63.33. The price of gold rallied this morning, ($4368.00), the best week since Jan as the expectation of higher interest rates faded. The reason being that experts looked for a gain of 85000 jobs in US employment for July but settled for a loss of 23,000 jobs. Which raises the specter of a serious economic slowdown. This suggests the FOMC will be forced to lower interest rates, which boosted bullish sentiment and brought fresh speculative money into the marketplace. Last Friday gold closed at $4049.10, and silver closed at $57.59. On the week gold was higher by $291.60, and silver was higher by $5.74.
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On Monday (8/3/26) the price of gold drifted lower in the early trade, moving into the red and testing support around $4032.00, but again pushed back into the green before the close. So, it appears that gold may be stuck as the dollar got some traction which cooled higher numbers in gold. Also, a bit on the bearish side is the latest numbers from the FedWatch Tool which suggests that there is a 66% probability that the Fed will raise interest rates at its next meeting in September. Higher interest rates typically pressure gold prices lower. But like I have been saying it is difficult for me to see the physical gold market falling out of bed as tension between the United States and Iran heats up as each nation fights for control of the Strait of Hormuz.
FXEmpire (Vladimir Zernov) – Gold Pulls Back As Dollar Rebounds – Gold is losing ground as traders focus on the rebound of the U.S. dollar. The American currency gains ground against a broad basket of currencies as traders focus on the better-than-expected ISM Manufacturing PMI report. The report showed that ISM Manufacturing PMI increased from 53.3 in June to 55.6 in July, exceeding the analyst forecast of 54. The report provided material support to the U.S. dollar as it showed that the manufacturing sector continued to grow at a robust pace. Treasury yields moved lower as bond traders focused on recent currency interventions. U.S. intervened to support the Japanese yen. Japan is the largest holder of U.S. Treasuries, and the country could be forced to start selling Treasuries to support the local currency. U.S. intervention pushed yen higher and lowered the risk of additional sales of Treasuries by Japan. Falling Treasury yields did not provide support to gold markets as traders remained focused on longer-term Fed policy outlook. FedWatch Tool indicates that there is a 66.5% probability that Fed will raise rates at the next meeting in September. Gold continues its attempts to settle below the support level at $4020 – $4040. This support level has been tested many times and proved its strength. In case gold manages to settle below the $4020 level, it will head towards the next support, which is located in the $3930 – $3950 range. A move below the $3930 level will provide gold with an opportunity to gain additional downside momentum. On the upside, a move above the $4100 level will push gold towards the nearest resistance level, which is located in the $4180 – $4200 range. Silver Remains Stuck Near Key Support At $56.00 – $57.00 – Silver pulls back as gold/silver ratio remains stuck near the 70.00 level. From the technical point of view, silver remains range-bound, and traders are waiting for stronger catalysts. The nearest support level for silver is located in the $56.00 – $57.00 range. If silver manages to settle below this level, it will move towards the next support at $51.00 – $52.00. RSI is in the moderate territory, so there is plenty of room to gain additional downside momentum in case the right catalysts emerge. On the upside, a move above the $59.00 level will open the way to the resistance level at $61.00 – $62.00. Platinum Pulls Back Amid Falling Demand For Precious Metals – Platinum retreats despite the strong pullback in the oil markets. Oil prices are down by -5% amid signs of de-escalation in the Middle East. Palladium markets are down by -1.8%, which is bearish for platinum. Platinum failed to settle above the $1650 level and pulled back towards the $1600 level. In case platinum declines below $1600, it will head towards the $1550 level. If platinum manages to settle below $1550, it will move towards the next support, which is located in the $1500 – $1520 range. A move below the $1500 level will indicate that platinum is ready to gain additional downside momentum.
On the day gold closed down $15.40 at $4033.70, and silver closed up $0.08 at $57.67.
On Tuesday (8/4/26) gold opened choppy in the early trade but moved quickly into the green, challenging $4104.00, which is a plus for bullish sentiment. Insiders claim this bullish price action is the result of a cooling labor market, a somewhat weaker dollar, and the still unresolved war between the United States and Iran. Trump claims that Iran talks will begin next Monday but threatens “decapitation” if they do not play ball. This “carrot and stick” approach has not worked in the past but may be enough to support gold prices at current levels or even push them higher.
Reuters (Sukanya Mitra) – Gold rises on softer oil prices; US jobs data, Fed rate outlook on tap – Gold prices gained on Tuesday, supported by a decline in oil prices that tempered inflation fears and lowered U.S. interest rate hike bets, while markets awaited further clues on the Federal Reserve’s policy path. Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,078.10 per ounce by 09:29 a.m. EDT (1329 GMT), while U.S gold futures gained 1.1% to $4,134.60. Oil prices pared gains after Qatar said efforts to secure a diplomatic resolution to the U.S-Iran conflict were continuing, though disruptions to oil flows through key shipping routes persisted. Brent crude futures were down over 4% on the news. Lower oil is probably one of the drivers supporting gold prices, said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities, adding that the decline has contributed to the interest rate outlook with short-term rates falling a little bit. Elevated energy prices reinforce expectations that the Fed will keep interest rates higher-for-longer to combat inflation, weighing on non-yielding bullion. Earlier on Monday, Fed’s New York President John Williams said he remained optimistic that inflation pressures were on track to ease gradually, but if they do not, the U.S central bank will not hesitate to respond with rate hikes. Traders are now pricing in about a 61% chance of a rate hike in the central bank’s September meeting after a divided Fed kept rates unchanged at its last policy meeting. Market participants are now awaiting a series of U.S jobs reports this week, including the ADP employment report due on Wednesday and the nonfarm payrolls data on Friday. “Anything that shows economic weakness is probably accretive to gold, mainly because it reduces the likelihood or the need for the central bank to act on interest rates,” Melek said. Among other metals, spot silver gained 2.6% to $59.7 per ounce, platinum climbed 5.6% to $1,719.49, and palladium rose 5% to $1,328.00.
On the day gold closed up $61.70 at $4095.40, and silver closed up $2.39 at $60.06.
On Wednesday (8/5/26) the price of gold surged once again, moving to daily highs around $4250.00, or up another $160.00 after yesterday’s pop to the upside of $60.00. So, the bulls are happy campers as dollar strength continues to slide, the Dollar Index moving lower by almost a full point in early morning trade. Still, it is hard to pinpoint a future driver when inflation is problematic and the FOMC is talking about a possible rate hike as early as September. What else could be driving this market? Normally I would say rising Middle East tension. But Trump claims there is progress made in Strait of Hormuz talks after his latest threats. I would not be an aggressive buyer of gold bullion in the short term at these prices. But some insiders claim it’s not too late to buy gold if you keep the longer term in mind. This view makes the most sense, but any deal based on Iran giving up its nuclear option may not work. They still have leverage in the Middle East and will use it to their advantage, which should underpin safe haven demand.
Reuters (Sukanya Mitra) – Gold climbs over 3% on weaker dollar; eyes on MidEast developments – Gold jumped over 3% on Wednesday, propelled by a weaker U.S. dollar and lower Treasury yields, while markets monitored developments in the Middle East for fresh signals on inflation and interest rate outlook. Spot gold climbed 3% to $4,199.78 per ounce. Bullion touched its highest level since June 22 earlier in the session. U.S gold futures rose 2.6% to $4,260.80. “Two days of lower yields and a week of softer dollar seem to be clearing brush in the path ahead of gold and silver,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. The U.S. dollar was near its lowest against the Japanese currency in three months, making dollar-priced bullion more affordable for overseas buyers, while yield on U.S. 10-year notes hovered near one-week lows. U.S. private payrolls growth slowed in July, with payrolls increasing 44,000, below economists’ expectations for a 70,000 gain, the ADP national employment report showed on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Fed Bank of Kansas City President Jeff Schmid said on Tuesday that some sort of monetary policy tightening is needed to get “too high” inflation back to the 2% target, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari in an interview with CNBC said he believed now is the time to start slowly moving interest rates higher. Traders are pricing in about a 57% chance of a rate hike in the central bank’s September meeting, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Higher interest rates could diminish bullion’s appeal due to its non-yielding characteristic. U.S President Donald Trump said his administration had “very good discussions” with Iran, fueling expectations of an imminent end to the five-month conflict.
On the day gold closed up $150.40 at $4245.80, and silver closed up $2.04 at $62.10.
On Thursday (8/6/26) – Today the price of gold was choppy on the open, testing support around $4230.00 and overhead resistance around $4280.00, but curiously finished the day in a defensive manner, down a few dollars. So, there may be a bit of cooling of the usual rhetoric. This market is underpinned by tension in the Middle East, as Trump and Iran threaten each other over the Strait of Hormuz. The Fed outlook on interest rates will likely remain the primary driver of gold prices. But it is interesting how much fresh speculative money is sitting on the sidelines judging from yesterday’s big jump to the upside of $150.00. I believe that higher interest rates may moderate higher gold prices but eventually will lay the groundwork for fresh highs by 2027. Still, the relationship between Trump and Iran is dangerous and could produce the fireworks necessary to reset the technical picture. Patience, however, is needed but may prove rewarding.
Reuters (Sukanya) – Gold firms near 7-week high as markets trim Fed hike bets before payrolls – Gold rose for the fourth straight session to hit a seven-week high on Thursday, as markets scaled back expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and awaited the non-farm payrolls report for clues on the central bank’s monetary policy path. Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,261.98 per ounce by 10:24 a.m EDT (1424 GMT), earlier hitting its highest since June 18. The yellow-metal climbed over 4% on Wednesday, its largest daily gain since February. U.S gold futures gained 0.4% to $4,322.70. “A lot of money that was on the sidelines started coming back into gold yesterday with some technical levels being breached,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at StoneX. Haberkorn added that Fed outlook remains the main driver for gold and Friday’s U.S. jobs data will influence what the central bank says on interest rates, adding that if the report comes in with a big miss, it could quickly negate the entire upside move in gold. Traders are currently pricing in about a 57% chance of a rate hike at the central bank’s September meeting, down from 65% last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, making gold less attractive to investors. Oil prices rose on Thursday as investors remained cautious on the outcome of Iran-Oman talks. Iran has made a concerted diplomatic push with Gulf states, warning them explicitly that Tehran will hit their oil, power and water plants unless they convince Donald Trump to end U.S. strikes on Iran and seek a negotiated end to the war. “The ceasefire and the potential for the Strait of Hormuz to open shipping lanes is bullish for gold because it suggests less inflation, lower oil prices and easier monetary policies from the Federal Reserve and other central banks,” said Jim Wyckoff (Kitco). Spot silver fell 0.9% to $61.53 per ounce. Platinum was little changed at $1,734.49, and palladium rose 1.2% to $1,380.33.
On the day gold closed down $3.80 at $4242.00, and silver closed down $0.66 at $61.44.
On Friday (8/7/26) the price of gold soared as the dollar weakened and the possibility that the FOMC remaining hawkish moved to the back burner. Under these circumstances the Fed Chief may not be able to keep everyone on the same “inflation” page. A sagging economy suggests an interest rate cut this coming September which suggests a weaker dollar and weaker interest rates. This is exactly what the gold bulls were looking for, and the frosting on the cake is the still unresolved problem of who will control traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. These bullish factors have pushed the price of gold up almost 8% this week. And I don’t see much in the way of profit taking. A few investors have taken large physical positions, expecting further gains.
Reuters (Sukanya Mitra and Swati Verma) – Gold hits seven-week high as weak U.S. jobs data dents rate hike bets – Gold surged on Friday, hitting its highest in seven weeks, after an unexpected drop in U.S. non-farm payrolls for July dashed rate-hike hopes and set bullion on course for its best week in seven months. Spot gold jumped 2.6% to $4,348.87, having surged over 3% to its highest since June 17. Bullion is set to post its largest weekly rise since January 19, with prices gaining over 7% so far this week. U.S. gold futures climbed 2.5% to $4,408.00. Nonfarm payrolls decreased by 23,000 jobs last month after a downwardly revised 20,000 increase in June, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast payrolls rising 80,000 last month. “The weaker-than-expected jobs data presents a scenario where the Fed is going to be less likely to raise interest rates at its next meeting,” said David Meger, director at High Ridge Futures. Energy prices coming down, and a potentially less likely Fed rate increase, all this portends to a weaker dollar and stronger gold prices, Meger added. The rate futures market has now priced in just a 43.9% chance of Fed tightening in September, compared with 57% before the jobs report, according to LSEG data. The probability that the Fed will hold rates next month rose to 60.4% versus 43.2% just before the data release. Lower interest rates make gold more attractive relative to yield-bearing assets as bullion does not generate interest. UBS expects gold prices to climb to $5,000 per ounce in the first half of 2027, it said in a note on Friday. On the geopolitical front, U.S. President Donald Trump told reporters that he believed the war with Iran would be over soon. Among other metals, spot silver , gained 4.5% to $64.26 per ounce, platinum firmed 1.4% to $1,753.09, and palladium rose 0.4% to $1,375.75. All three metals were headed for weekly gains.
On the day gold closed up $98.70 at $4340.70, and silver closed up $1.89 at $63.33.
Platinum closed up $21.10 at $1750.10, and palladium closed up $1.20 at $1374.10.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,372.40 to $4,450.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,500.00 and then $4,494.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,228.90, with deeper downside targets at $4,120.00 and then $4,000.00. First resistance is seen at $4,372.40 and then at $4,450.00. First support is seen at $4,228.90 and then at $4,120.00. Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $65.22 to $70.00 area, with a move above that zone targeting $72.00 and then $70.00 to $72.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $61.05, with deeper downside targets at $55.00 and then $45.00 to $50.00. First resistance is seen at $65.22 and then at $70.00. Next support is seen at $61.05 and then at $55.00.
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