Commentary for Friday, Aug 14, 2026 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed up $16.80 at $4380.40, and silver closed up $0.12 at $64.99. The price of gold only moved modestly into the green going into the weekend. Which may be a disappointment to bullish sentiment given rising tensions in the Middle East, a weakening dollar, and the United States claiming it could maintain a naval blockade of Iran indefinitely. Really, I would have expected more bullish fireworks, especially as Swiss banking giant UBS expects $5000.00 gold the first half of next year on lower interest rates, and strong demand. Not a surprising call, but one which investors should approach cautiously. Last Friday gold closed at $4340.70, and silver closed at $63.33. On the week gold was higher by $39.70, and silver was higher by $1.66.
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On Monday (8/10/26) the price of gold tested overhead resistance around $4356.00 in early trading, but traders sold this rally and pushed prices lower, testing support at $4320.00. To me this suggests a bit of softness in this trade, as the dollar has bounced off 8 week lows. But this cooling might be misleading when considering the almost $100.00 pop to the upside last Friday. So, we have a kind of mixed bag again, a combination of perhaps changing interest rate expectations and rising tension in the Middle East suggesting that safe haven demand will remain solid. As of this writing, gold is trending higher ($4359.55), surpassing its 52 week moving average of $4349.20, a big technical plus for bullish sentiment. While we may be seeing a bit of consolidation in prices, watch momentum carefully. If momentum returns, most will expect fresh record prices this year. All things being equal, it is difficult to argue with the price of gold solidly north of $4000.00, as the U.S.-Iran war has entered its sixth month and direct negotiations stall. President Trump has shifted strategy to maximize economic pressure, while Tehran demands extensive U.S. concessions before reopening the blocked Strait of Hormuz. Across our trading desk there is little selling of gold or silver bullion. I think the public senses this rising danger in the Middle East and will stand pat for now and see who blinks first, the United States or Iran.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Consolidates Above 200-Day EMA Following NFP Shock – Gold is rather quiet on Monday morning with traders looking to determine whether or not there is going to be follow-through on the bullish momentum. Technical Analysis – Gold is rather quiet on Monday morning as traders are trying to come to grips with whatever happened on Friday with the jobs report. The United States lost 23,000 jobs last month, and that was a bit of a shock to the market, sending gold flying. But at the same time, there are still concerns about inflation via energy, so it’s not a clear path, at least not yet, for some traders. That being said, the gold market is above the 200-day EMA, and technically speaking, for a lot of people, that is defining the market as heading into an uptrend. We’ll just have to wait and see whether or not momentum can return, but it’s a very quiet opening on Monday, which has people probably questioning what’s going on. Federal Reserve Outlook and Economic Data – Rates are relatively flat. They are a little higher during the day, so that might have something to do with it. But that being said, rates are stubborn, and it seems at this point in time, the next 30 days could be very important as we try to determine what happens at the next Federal Reserve meeting in September. There will be a lot of questions paid attention to when it comes to inflation, CPI, PPI numbers for example, and then, of course, the employment numbers will be more likely than not very big this time around. We’ll just have to wait and see because the Federal Reserve has not exactly come out and said that they’re looking to be dovish, so it’s a question of will they have to change their tune. That has a major influence on gold. And then, of course, we have the entire problem in the Middle East that seemingly isn’t going anywhere, although it doesn’t seem to be getting worse, so I suppose that’s something. Gold is quiet on Monday but has been bullish for several days now. Can Silver Regain Momentum Beyond 200-Day EMA? – The silver market is slightly positive on Monday in early trading, as we are looking to possibly continue the bullish momentum. A bit of hesitation has been seen though. Technical Analysis – The silver market rallies a little bit early on Monday to show signs of resiliency again as the market finds itself stuck between the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA indicators. The silver market has been rallying for several days now, breaking above a swing high from the beginning of July, showing signs of strength, but there could be a challenge here at the 200-day EMA. There certainly was on Friday as the market peeled away from that level. Breaking above it could bring in more momentum, with traders perhaps watching the next major area, at least from a psychological standpoint, the $70 level. On a pullback from here, the $60 level has proven itself to be important a couple of times previously. That might be where support comes back into play with traders willing to jump into the market. Interest Rates and Currency Influences – Regardless, one thing that I’ll be watching is the interest rate market and seeing where rates go. They are kind of steady, and that at least gives some cover for silver to rise because rising rates, historically speaking, have been very negative for silver markets in general. So, part of that is possibly due to the fact that silver’s non-yielding. It’s also the U.S. dollar strengthening. Silver is priced in U.S. dollars, after all, but it’s not a 100% correlation, so it’s just one of the factors here. As things stand right now, it looks like the buyers have been in control for 4 or 5 days for the most part. They are trying to make their presence known early on Monday.
On the day gold closed up $21.10 at $4361.80, and silver closed up $1.78 at $65.11.
On Tuesday (8/11/26) gold dipped on the open, testing support around $4355.00, certainly a bearish warning, but unexpectedly bounced higher, finishing the day mildly in the green. Some insiders claim this dip was simply a round of profit taking after gold hit two month highs overnight, and that may be the case. But I’m always suspicious when gold prices soar or fall apart without much of a plausible reason. My bet is that the bulls got ahead of themselves on just the possibility of lower interest rates or perhaps the momentum players jumped in believing this was the big breakout that would reset the technical readings and make all the bulls rich. And then the reality of steady to higher interest rates created the usual wet blanket relative to bullish sentiment. Which brings us back to the notion that higher interest rates mean lower gold prices in the shorter term. Don’t get me wrong, $4000.00 gold may seem cheap a decade from now, given the amount of fiat currency created every day. But for now, expect volatile markets. Remember that ready cash (the green kind) is not a bad idea if you are feeling defensive in the short term.
FXEmpire (Christoher Lewis) – Gold Rally Stalls Near $4,600 Target as Rising Yields Weigh on Metals – Gold rallies early on Tuesday as we continue to see the market playing out the bullish scenario over the past several days. Technical Analysis – The gold market has rallied a bit, gapping higher to kick off the trading session on Tuesday as traders continue to jump into this market. That being said, we have given back some of the initial gains, as perhaps we are getting a little stretched. It has been a pretty explosive breakout. We got a little bit of a boost on Friday after the jobs report came out negative for July, but there are still concerns in the Middle East that could cause chaos in the bond market, and that is part of our problem in the gold market, as the uncertainty is something that could continue. Technical Setup and Bond Yield Impact – The bond market has been screaming higher in yield, and that works against the backdrop of owning a non-yielding asset like gold. That being said, the breakout was real. It was voluminous from the $300 range we had been in, but that doesn’t mean that the market has to go straight up in the air forever, and quite frankly, eventually gravity will get involved. That’s part of what we’re looking at here, I believe at this point. If we do continue higher, there’s a very interesting node of support and resistance near the $4600 level that I’ll be watching. But a pullback from here, we have the 200-day EMA right at $4300 that I’ll be watching for a potential bounce. The market is a little overdone in the short term, but that’s about it. Don’t know that there’s a major change in attitude here. I think at this point what we’re looking at is gravity coming back into the market. Silver Tests 200-Day EMA as Rate Pressures Mount – Silver continues to see noise around the 200-day EMA on Tuesday, as we are looking at a market that has perhaps been a bit overextended. Technical Analysis – The silver market has been hanging around the 200-day EMA for the last couple of days, but it did show a little bit of hesitation here in early Tuesday trading right at that same 200-day EMA. The market pulling back a bit is not a huge surprise, as technical indicators are so heavily followed. A lot of longer-term traders will be looking at this for determining the trend, and as we are approaching it, quite often we do see some pushback. Technical Levels and Yield Dynamics – The 50-day EMA sits just below, and that could offer a bit of support. We’ll just have to wait and see. But I think the main story here is that the market just got a little overstretched. We can say the same thing about gold as well, and the two do tend, at least over the longer term, to move somewhat in tandem. The $60 level has been a strong support region going down to the $55 level, but now we’ll have to watch whether or not non-yielding assets get a bit of a bid with the higher interest rates being offered. Traders will be watching interest rates, and they are a little higher during trading here on Tuesday, which typically works against silver, although it doesn’t have to. So, at this point in time, we have to ask: did we just form some type of bottoming pattern, or was it just another bump along the road? Volume suggests that there was real interest over the last couple of days, so we’ll see if this ends up being a move that continues to be followed.
On the day gold closed up $21.20 at $4383.00, and silver closed down $0.34 at $64.77.
On Wednesday (8/12/26) the price of gold climbed higher in the early trade challenging $4438.00. And Chris Zaccarelli, Chief Investment Officer for Northlight Asset Management, said that the latest CPI data gives the Federal Reserve some breathing room. Insiders see the most recent inflation data as pretty much unchanged, so I am surprised that higher interest rates do not seem to be slowing down recent advances in the price of gold. I guess the reason being is that the Fed may be forced to lower interest rates by the end of this year, thus spurring bullish sentiment. Of course, the war between Iran and the US over the Strait of Hormuz continues to support these higher gold prices. If Iran decides to use force, I’m sure Trump will retaliate so the possibility of fireworks could be in the making. Although, when it comes right down to it, I don’t think much can make Iran happy. So, the oddsmakers favor higher (perhaps much higher) gold prices through the holiday season. Reuters “Iran and the United States remain at loggerheads over efforts to agree to a permanent end to the war in the Gulf, according to a senior Iranian source, who said there had been no progress in talks to revive the interim deal agreed in June and define a time frame to implement it.” I’m not pointing fingers, just saying.
Reuters (Sukanya and Vedika Thorat) – Gold climbs to nine-week high on buying momentum as inflation data looms – Gold rose to a nine-week peak on Monday as bullish momentum and fear of missing out propelled prices forward, while investors awaited key U.S. inflation data to gauge the Federal Reserve’s policy moves. Spot gold rose 0.8% to $4,376.56 per ounce by 2:45 p.m. EDT (1845 GMT). It hit its highest level since June 5 earlier in the session. Prices logged a 2.4% gain on Friday, with labor department data showing an unexpected drop in U.S. nonfarm payrolls. U.S. gold futures added about 0.5% to settle at $4,419.70. “The technical momentum right now is pretty strong for gold overall,” said Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at StoneX. “It’s cautious trading, with China buying, and the July CPI and PPI report this week, and kind of a fear of missing out on a move back over 4,500 for the time being.” China’s central bank stepped up gold purchases in July, adding the most bullion to its reserves since October 2023, official data showed last week. Investors await the U.S. consumer price data due on Wednesday and producer price data on Thursday. Economists polled by Reuters expect the July CPI to have risen 3.4% year-on-year, versus 3.5% in June. “The CPI data is going to be important. Inflation is starting to cool a little bit, with markets expecting a report that’s not going to be hot on inflation and will lead to gold trading sideways to higher in the near term,” said Jim Wyckoff (Kitco). Traders are pricing in a 52% chance of a rate hike in September and an 81% chance in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Bullion is generally less attractive in high-interest-rate environments because of its non-yielding characteristic. Iran said it was nearing a final pact with Oman defining new shipping lanes between them through the Strait of Hormuz, but repeated that the U.S. must meet other conditions before the strategic waterway is reopened.
On the day gold closed up $25.90 at $4408.90, and silver closed up $0.79 at $65.56.
On Thursday (8/13/26) – Today the price of gold moved solidly lower, trading between overhead resistance of $4401.00 and underlying support of $4365.00. And gold has risen 10% since the beginning of August, which might suggest short term profit taking is in the making. Still, the bulls are looking for even higher prices because a satisfactory solution to the US Iran war seems elusive at best. The higher interest rate range investors are now dealing with may also present bullish roadblocks. Into this mix, it is worth noting that the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) snapshot survey predicts a gold price average near $4500.00 by the end of this year. My guess is that gold prices to the upside will moderate as the FOMC will likely remain hawkish especially if inflation does not continue to cool to any meaningful degree.
Reuters (Jamie McGeever) – Central banks spearhead renewed gold rush – Gold is on the rise again, as a confluence of economic and political dynamics spurs demand from investors around the world, especially one cohort: central banks. After stalling around $4,000 an ounce for several weeks, bullion has jumped around $400, or 10%, since the start of August and could be on track for its best month this century. The last time it rose 13% or more in a month was September 1999. There have been a few key U.S.-related triggers for the spike, namely the Federal Reserve’s “dovish hold” on interest rates, weak employment data, and fairly tame inflation figures. These have all tempered Fed rate hike expectations and dragged down the dollar – manna for gold. But they come against a more unnerving geopolitical and policy backdrop that has reminded the world of gold’s underlying appeal, particularly for reserve managers. The U.S.-Iran war has re-escalated and hopes of a peace “deal” — however unsatisfactory that deal might be — are evaporating. U.S. President Donald Trump’s off-ramp ahead of November’s midterm elections is narrowing. Escalation or capitulation is not the only choices Trump faces, but it is a black-and-white scenario some analysts are now beginning to contemplate. Meanwhile, doubts about the Fed’s independence and Chair Kevin Warsh’s inflation-fighting credibility are growing. Investors weren’t impressed by his remarks in July about the central bank’s 2% inflation goal. Furthermore, media reports suggest Trump has repeatedly called Warsh since his appointment, and Trump has revived his attempts to fire Governor Lisa Cook. All this has unnerved the bond market. Yields on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note have climbed to their highest level in 18 months, while yields on 30-year bonds and 30-year inflation-protected bonds are at their highest since 2007 and 2008, respectively. Little wonder, perhaps, that central banks have continued to reduce their Treasuries held in custody at the New York Fed. These are the lowest since 2012. “The U.S. is now in a phase where its global seignorage benefits of supplying the world’s reserve currency have now been exhausted; the next phase (which may already be underway) is what happens when the foreign official holders of your liabilities become more antsy about holding them,” economist Phil Suttle wrote last week. SAFE-HAVEN NO MORE? None of these events on their own would necessarily spark a huge revival in gold. But throw them all together, and it’s a pretty compelling checklist. Especially for central banks, which had already started to ramp up their purchases in the second quarter after a lackluster first quarter. Net purchases by central banks in the April-June period totaled 289 tons, more than five times the volume of the prior three months, according to the World Gold Council. This was a record high for a second quarter. Taking the average price into account, analysts at Deutsche Bank estimate second-quarter central bank demand was a record $45 billion. That record may be broken soon. A WGC survey of central banks in June showed that a record 45% of respondents plan to increase their gold holdings over the next 12 months. Initial hard numbers appear to back that up. China’s central bank bought a net 20 metric tons in July, a rise of 0.9% from the previous month. That was the biggest increase, by both measures, since October 2023, lifting its total gold reserves to a record 2,377.5 tons. “China is again adding materially to its reserves. Gold is not a pure Fed signal, but persistent official-sector demand and renewed investor interest are reinforcing the value of inflation, currency and geopolitical hedges,” BNY analysts wrote last week. But central banks move slowly, and a clear picture of their reacquaintance with bullion won’t emerge for some months. It probably won’t be a one-way street either. After the unprecedented price volatility of the last couple of years, gold is no longer the ultimate safe-haven asset it was long thought to be, even for central banks, the most conservative, price-insensitive buyers with the longest investment horizons. An International Monetary Fund, last month found that gold is “highly volatile, offers only conditional hedging and diversification benefits,” and shouldn’t be bought for liquidity purposes. “Central banks should treat gold as a high-risk reserve asset and anchor gold accumulation decisions in strategic asset allocation and sound policy analysis,” the authors said. Central banks are unlikely to chase the rally blindly. But as confidence in the world’s reserve assets frays, gold’s allure is unlikely to dim.
On the day gold closed down $45.30 at $4363.60, and silver closed down $0.69 at $64.87.
On Friday (8/14/26) the price of gold was firm going into the weekend, which leaves me a bit underwhelmed. But there is no arguing with higher gold prices given time for traders to digest the fresh news that a hike in interest rates by the FOMC next month may be on hold. This is surprising in that it was not too long ago that higher interest rates were already baked into the inflation cake. But such is the most recent witches brew created by the rising price of crude oil and the escalating war between the U.S. and Iran. This dynamic may put Trump in a situation where, as the fog of war increases it is difficult to decide whether to shoot or not to shoot.
Reuters (Sukanya Mitra) – Gold firms on weaker dollar as inflation data cements rate hold bets – Gold advanced on Friday, buoyed by a weaker dollar after in-line U.S. inflation readings this week tipped the scales in favor of an interest rate hold by the Federal Reserve next month. Spot gold gained 0.6% to $4,376.02 per ounce by 9:09 a.m. EDT (1309 GMT). Prices declined 1.3% in the previous session on profit-taking after touching their highest level since June 5. Bullion is up around 0.7% for the week so far. U.S. gold futures rose 0.3% to $4,433.90. “The lower U.S. dollar index is a friendly outside market that’s supporting gold today,” said Jim Wyckoff (Kitco). The U.S. dollar index slipped 0.3%, making greenback-priced bullion more affordable for buyers overseas. Gold drew support from an unexpected decline in U.S. nonfarm payrolls in July, and inflation readings this week that were largely in line with expectations. This significantly lowered expectations of an increase in interest rates next month, with most analysts now seeing the central bank holding the current 3.50% to 3.75% range. Markets are pricing in a 31% chance of a rate hike at the September meeting, down from about 55% last week, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. “As we expect the Fed not to raise interest rates, gold price therefore still has further upside potential,” Commerzbank said in a note. Lower interest rates tend to support non-yielding gold. Meanwhile, transit through the Strait of Hormuz appeared to grind to a near-standstill after two more ships were attacked and the United States said it could maintain a naval blockade of Iran indefinitely. Oil prices were on track for weekly gains on the news. “If crude oil prices continue to rise, that’s going to be a bearish element for the metals market because it would aid inflation and prompt central banks to raise interest rates,” Wyckoff said. Elsewhere, gold discounts in India widened to more than two-month highs. Spot silver climbed 1% to $65.08 per ounce, platinum gained 0.9% to $1,733.34, palladium rose 0.9% to $1,318.50.
On the day gold closed up $16.80 at $4380.40, and silver closed up $0.12 at $64.99.
Platinum closed up $24.80 at $1750.00, and palladium closed down $0.10 at $1322.50.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,448.00 resistance level, with a sustained move targeting $4,575.00 and then $4,666.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,322.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,263.00 and then $4,205.00. First resistance is seen at $4,448.00 and then at $4,575.00. First support is seen at $4,330.00 and then at $4,322.00. Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $65.44, with a move above that level targeting $66.83. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $64.16, with deeper downside targets at $63.10 and then $62.04. First resistance is seen at $65.44 and then at $66.83. Next support is seen at $64.16 and then at $63.10.
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