Commentary for Friday, Aug 21, 2026 – Today gold closed up $107.80 at $4624.10, and silver closed up $1.44 at $69.47. The price of gold technically broke to the upside today, reacting to several factors which include a dollar which began to move lower this past Tuesday. And more importantly the still developing Middle East situation which promises further fireworks as the United States threatens to cut off Iran’s economic lifelines. Adding to the confusion the United Arab Emirates (UAE) has severed all trade and financial transactions with Tehran (the capital of Iran). This may be what President Trump has in mind with his latest sanctions, which caused the price of oil to rise 2% this week. Higher oil prices typically create a wave of higher inflation over time by increasing production and transportation costs across the entire economy. And higher inflation will eventually drive the price of gold and silver higher over time. For now, this latest attempt to control who passes through the Strait of Hormuz has brought $5000.00 gold back in focus. Last Friday gold closed at $4380.40, and silver closed at $64.99. On the week gold was higher by $243.70, and silver was higher by$4.48.
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On Monday (8/17/26) the price of gold surged higher on a weaker dollar and fading Fed interest rate bets. The underlying geopolitical situation between the US and Iran portends even higher prices in gold. Trump says Iran should surrender and threatens to bomb Oman if they get in the way of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. In the early morning trade, the price of gold tested support at $4380.00 and overhead resistance at $4420.00. So, a good bullish beginning to this trading week, supported by the dollar haven fallen to its lowest level in more than two months. Most will be watching the minutes from the July Fed meeting due this Wednesday for clues as to possible interest rate changes. Consumer Sentiment is weaking and inflation expectations are moving higher. A big plus for bullish sentiment and perhaps even fireworks in the making but like all things relating to gold these days, bullish news does not necessarily mean higher prices especially in the short term. Keep your powder dry and let these factors further develop.
Reuters (Sumit Saha) – Gold gains on weaker dollar, fading Fed rate hike bets – Gold prices edged higher on Monday, supported by a weaker dollar and fading expectations of a U.S. Federal Reserve rate hike, while investors continued to monitor geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Spot gold was up 0.28% to $4,387.95 per ounce by 09:25 a.m. EDT (1325 GMT). U.S. gold futures for December delivery edged 0.2% higher to $4,444.40. The gold market appears to be pricing in a stagflationary environment, with softer employment and expectations that the Fed will tolerate current inflation levels, said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. “A big factor here is the US dollar has weakened to a psychologically important 100 level.” The dollar fell to its lowest level in more than two months, making gold cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. Markets pared bets on a Federal Reserve rate hike after last week’s weaker-than-expected U.S. payrolls report and subdued consumer inflation data. Investors are now awaiting minutes from the Fed’s July meeting, due on Wednesday, for clues on the central bank’s policy outlook. Traders see a 33% probability of a September rate increase, down from 51.2% a month earlier, CME’s FedWatch Tool showed. Gold, which pays no interest, tends to benefit from lower interest rates as they reduce the opportunity cost of holding bullion. On the geopolitical front, a senior Iranian official told Reuters that Tehran would step up tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and across the region if diplomatic efforts with the United States break down, signaling a more offensive approach. Spot silver rose 1% to $65.31 per ounce. Platinum gained 0.8% to $1,762.43 per ounce, palladium climbed 1% to $1,326.26 per ounce.
On the day gold closed up $37.40 at $4417.80, and silver closed up $1.13 at $66.12.
On Tuesday (8/18/26) the price of gold opened choppy but weakened early in the trade and tested support around $4354.00, not a particularly good start as gold finished the day strongly in the red. But not the end of the world either as a stronger crude oil premium and higher Treasury yields offset the fading expectations for a September Federal Reserve hike in interest rates according to Kitco. Still, this indecision must be a disappointment for bullish sentiment considering the nice pop to the upside yesterday. Normally rising Middle East tension would pressure gold higher but $4500.00 has developed into an overhead resistance area worth watching as a measure of relative strength. A break to the upside here may create the fireworks necessary to bring fresh speculative money back into play which is now on the sidelines. That being said, it is tough seeing fresh new highs in gold unless interest rates begin to trend lower.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Pulls Back from $4,500 Barrier as Yields Rise – Gold pulls back from major resistance barrier on Tuesday, as we continue to see a lot of interest rate noise as well. The gold market initially rallied during trading on Tuesday but has pulled back from the crucial $4,500 level. The $4,500 level is an area that is a large, round, psychologically significant figure and has been important a couple of times. In fact, in June when we got that huge dump in gold, that’s where it started from. The pullback is probably not a huge surprise considering that interest rates in America are rising during the session again, which can hurt non-yielding assets such as gold and silver. Ultimately, the 50-day EMA is reaching towards the 200-day EMA, trying to cross over and kick off the so-called golden cross. That might be something worth watching. Geopolitical Deadlock and Rate Headwinds – But this is a market that, unfortunately, is held hostage by the same thing most markets are: the Middle East. The nonsense in the Middle East continues with leaders of both the United States and Iran trading social media barbs but not really making any progress. So, in this environment, everything’s just kind of locked up, and I think you’re seeing that in gold. With lack of clarity comes a lack of momentum in most markets, and this is no different. The longer-term outlook for gold is possibly good, but central banks are tight at the moment in a couple of major countries, and that is causing a little bit of an issue as well. If rates start dropping, then non-yielding assets become a bit more interesting, and I think at this point, there’s a huge disconnect between what should be and what is. And I also believe that there are so many questions right now; traders might just be stuck.
On the day gold closed down $51.80 at $4366.00, and silver closed down $2.18 at $63.94.
On Wednesday (8/19/26) the price of gold surged higher ($4500.00) in the early trade, enough of a pop to the upside to accomplish two goals. First, this easily gets everyone’s attention because to some degree it does not make sense given that the FOMC will not lower interest rates because inflation is troubling. And second, dollar strength or weakness is still the primary driver of gold prices. The Dollar Index has lost a full point since last Thursday. Finally, who controls traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still in dispute, underpinning these recent highs. And potential hostility between the US and Iran may provide the fireworks necessary for gold to make fresh record highs before the end of this year. So, keep your seatbelt fastened. Across our trading desk there are a few big bullion buyers coming back from the sidelines since last week.
FXEmpire (James Hyerczyk) – Gold Prices Recover as Yields and Dollar Plunge Before Fed Minutes – Spot Gold is higher Wednesday after the two forces that drove Tuesday’s nearly 2% selloff eased at the same time. The dollar is lower. Treasury yields pulled back from their multiyear highs. Tuesday’s break came after long-dated bond yields in the United States, Japan and Europe pushed to levels that precious metals could no longer absorb. Wednesday’s recovery has the metal back above the midpoint of the short-term range, pressing toward resistance that has capped every rally for a week. The 30-year is still above 5.20%. Brent crude remains firm. The FOMC minutes land at 18:00 GMT with three July dissenters already on record wanting a hike. Gold has the short-term relief. The minutes decide whether it holds. At 12:33 GMT, Spot Gold (XAUUSD) was trading at $4,377.81, up $43.24 or 1.00%. The Long Bond Paused but Has Not Changed Its Mind – The 30-year Treasury yield fell to about 5.204% Wednesday after reaching a fresh 19-year high above 5.33% Tuesday. The 10-year eased to 4.637%. The two-year slipped to 4.145%. Tuesday showed how fast the long end can override everything else. The front end had been pricing softer data and reduced September hike odds. The 30-year rejected that view and rose anyway, dragging gold lower by nearly 2%. Wednesday’s pullback brought buyers back. It did not settle the argument. The two-year is following weaker payrolls, contained inflation and soft retail sales. The 30-year is following fiscal deficits, heavy Treasury issuance and corporate borrowing. The U.S. fiscal deficit reached $432.3 billion in July. The year-to-date shortfall is nearing $1.8 trillion. Interest payments on nearly $40 trillion in national debt have cost the government about $1.2 trillion this year. Treasury buyers want more compensation and they are competing with corporations raising money for AI infrastructure at the same time.
The front end can keep pricing a September hold. The long end can keep yields elevated on its own. Tuesday proved that. Wednesday’s pullback does not erase it. The Dollar Dropped Back Below 99.15 – The dollar index fell 0.50% to 99.12 Wednesday. Tuesday’s problem was that the dollar held steady while long yields climbed. Gold had nothing working for it from the currency side or the rate side at the same time. Wednesday is different. Yields are easing. The dollar is lower. That is the combination that brought buyers back after Tuesday’s break. The move in the currency remains limited. Safe-haven demand tied to the Middle East is still keeping a bid under the dollar. Gold can work with a modest decline in the currency. It cannot work if the dollar and long yields start rising together again. FOMC Minutes Decide Whether Gold Keeps the Recovery – The July minutes arrive at 18:00 GMT. The vote was 9-3 to hold rates at 3.50% to 3.75%. Hammack, Kashkari and Logan wanted a quarter-point increase. The market is pricing roughly a 67% chance the Fed holds in September after weaker data cut the urgency for another move. Gold is trading the current rate backdrop. It is not trading a Fed that has declared victory. Inflation is still above the 2% target. One contained month of price data did not close that gap. The minutes will show how divided the committee actually was behind a vote that looked more comfortable than it probably felt. Hormuz Is Keeping Crude Firm and the Inflation Risk Visible
Oil is holding near three-week highs. Trump said Tuesday that no talks with Iran were scheduled. Iran said the Strait of Hormuz remained shut. Shipowners are still avoiding the route and crude is holding the risk premium. Tuesday showed which side of the oil trade matters more for gold right now. The metal fell as crude held firm and the long bond sold off. Higher energy costs feed into the next round of inflation data and give the Fed a reason to keep the door open. Gasoline is still elevated. The next set of price reports has a better chance of capturing the move in crude that July’s data missed. Gold is trading the conflict between softer growth numbers and an oil market that can rebuild the inflation argument at any time. Daily Spot Gold (XAUUSD) Technical Analysis – Spot Gold is edging higher early Wednesday as traders try to recover from Tuesday’s setback. Earlier in the session, gold dipped below Tuesday’s low at $4324.68, but strong buying prevented the market from challenging last week’s swing bottom at $4311.04. A trade through this level would have changed the trend to down and shifted momentum to the downside. The short-term range is $4409.83 to $4311.04. Its midpoint at $4360.44 is the level to watch today. Buyers have already reclaimed this level as buying strengthened. The move has driven gold into the long-term 50% level at $4416.00. Overtaking this level with conviction could trigger a surge into the swing top at $4449.83. Over $4449.83 is $4481.78. This price is 20% down from the all-time high at $5602.23. It is the level that some analysts say marked the start of the bear market. Overcoming it will take gold out of bear-market territory, but it will not mean a new bull market has begun. The next upside objective is to recapture the 200-day moving average at $4509.26. Overtaking this level could bring in new institutional money and further extend the rally. What to Watch – Gold got the dollar and yield relief it needed after Tuesday’s break. The 30-year pulled back from above 5.33% to 5.204%. The dollar dropped below 99.50. The metal reclaimed the midpoint of its short-term range and is pressing resistance at $4416. That recovery means nothing if the FOMC minutes at 18:00 GMT read hawkish enough to reverse the pullback in yields and the dollar. Crude holding near three-week highs keeps the inflation risk in front of the Fed. The 30-year yield paused. It has not reversed. Gold is trading between a front end that supports the recovery and a long end that can take it away the same way it did Tuesday. The swing bottom at $4311 held on the test this morning. The 200-day moving average overhead at $4509 is where the trade changes. The minutes decide which level matters next. Silver Bounces off 50-Day EMA as US Yields Tumble – Silver The silver market has bounced a little bit after initially dipping on Wednesday as rates have taken a little bit of a tumble in America. That, of course, will help silver most of the time, but we also have the 50-day EMA coming into the picture, and technical traders are, more likely than not, watching this. The support level that we have found to turn around from was a swing high in the early part of July. So, the question now is, will the silver market make a big bullish flag here that it tries to take off from? It’s hard to tell, but if it did, the next big resistance barrier that I see on the chart is the $70 level. It’s more or less a psychological barrier, but it’s also a swing high going back to the middle of June. Technical Resistance and External Geopolitical Drivers – Overall, silver is a market that is typically volatile, so it’s not a huge surprise to see a lot of the choppiness. And now it appears that it is at least trying to save itself after that big sell-off. But there are a lot of external factors at the moment that could come into play, not the least of which would be the Strait of Hormuz and whether or not it’s ever going to open up. The demand for silver is still strong going into the future, assuming that electrification is still a thing, and it seems to still be a thing. Longer-Term, I Do Like Silver – So therefore, longer-term, I do like silver, but we are still in the midst of fighting a lot of external noise for clarity at the moment.
On the day gold closed up $123.40 at $4489.40, and silver closed up $1.79 at $65.73.
On Thursday (8/20/26) – Today the price of gold confounded even insiders by moving higher after initial weakness which tested support around $4454.00. This was a surprise after yesterday’s big jump to the upside even as the dollar recovered in strength. So, what is happening here? I think, for now the momentum players are in control. And Trump’s latest message this morning in which he threatens “unprecedented” economic warfare against Iran while cutting off talks is an aggressive move which will push traders back to a safe haven mindset. This supports higher prices in gold, for the time being. If Iran decides to strike back, we could see $5000.00 gold much sooner because rising tension in the Middle East fuels safe haven demand. So, this trade is now unstable in my mind. I would be cautious for now and see how this aggression from both sides shakes out in the short term. And I would not dismiss Iran’s resolve. This country dismissed Trump’s latest comments, claiming it will only bring further defeat.
FXEmpire (James Hyerczyk) –Yields Recover as Fed Minutes and Profit-Taking Cap the Gold Rally – Gold Trims Wednesday’s Rally as Yields Recover and the Fed Stays Hawkish – Spot Gold is lower Thursday after Wednesday’s Treasury-driven surge ran into profit-taking and a bond market that started moving the other direction overnight. The 4% rally was the strongest single-session move in weeks. Thursday’s pullback landed before the metal could test the 200-day moving average, which has been the level the market has been reaching for since the June bottom. Yields are recovering. The FOMC minutes reminded the market that several officials are still prepared to raise rates if inflation does not cool. Crude oil near multi-week highs is keeping the inflation argument in front of every Fed official watching the data. Wednesday gave gold the Treasury buyback, lower yields and a weaker dollar all at once. Thursday is taking the yield side away. At 11:56 GMT, Spot Gold (XAUUSD) was trading at $4,471.03, down $52.02 or 1.15%. The metal reached a session high of $4,523.86 and a low of $4,465.89. The Bond Market Took Back What Treasury Gave – Treasury yields started recovering Thursday after Wednesday’s sharp drop on the buyback announcement. The 30-year had fallen hard on the news that Treasury would double the size of its longer-dated buyback operations. Thursday’s bounce says the announcement interrupted the yield rally. It did not end the forces driving it. The fiscal deficit, heavy issuance and corporate borrowing are still there. The buyback program does not start until September 9. Between now and then, the bond market has to absorb the same supply of long-dated paper that pushed the 30-year to a 19-year high earlier in the week. Wednesday’s rally needed yields to keep falling. They stopped. The metal had already made the big move and once the bid underneath bonds weakened, traders who bought the dip had a reason to take profits at higher prices. The dollar remains softer than it was earlier in the summer but a rebound in yields alone was enough to bring sellers into gold after the advance. The Fed Minutes Were Not What Gold Buyers Wanted to Hear – The FOMC minutes from the July meeting showed several officials still concerned about inflation. Some were prepared to consider raising rates further. The vote was 9-3 to hold, but the internal discussion read more hawkish than the market had been pricing. September hike odds are near one in three. The recent data had been moving in gold’s favor. Payrolls weakened. CPI was contained. PPI was flat. Retail sales fell. That sequence had been pulling hike expectations lower and giving gold buyers room to work. The minutes pushed back against the idea that the committee was comfortable standing pat. Gold had been trading the data. The minutes told the market the Fed is still trading the inflation side of the ledger. One contained month of price reports did not settle the debate inside the committee. Crude Oil Is Making the Fed’s Problem Worse – Oil near multi-week highs is the other force working against gold. Brent stayed above $93 Thursday. The Strait of Hormuz remains restricted. The UAE cut financial ties with Iran. No talks are scheduled between Washington and Tehran. The conflict creates a backdrop that could support precious metals on the breaks. Thursday’s trade is showing the other side again. Elevated crude keeps fuel costs high. Gasoline is still above $4 per gallon. The next round of inflation data has a better chance of capturing the recent move in energy prices than July’s reports did. Technical Analysis – Spot Gold is edging lower on Thursday after failing to follow through to the upside following yesterday’s high at $4524.34. The 200-day moving average at $4511.57 is also a factor preventing the continuation of the rally. The main range by my calculations is $3886.46 to $5602.23. Its 50% to 61.8% retracement zone is $4744.34 to $4541.88. Once the market overcomes the 200-day MA with conviction, the first upside target is this zone. Today’s weakness has also put the market back under $4481.78 and back into bear market territory. The nearest support is a minor 50% level at $4416.82. Spot gold spent about two weeks testing this level prior to Wednesday’s rally. It may prove to be strong support if tested today. If it fails, then we could see a test of the swing bottom at $4311.04. Momentum could shift to the downside if this level doesn’t hold. While the 200-day MA is acting like resistance, the 50-day moving average at $4163.69 is starting to hook up, which could develop into a strong near-term bullish signal. What to Watch Wednesday’s Treasury rally lost momentum overnight and yields found buyers again. The FOMC minutes added selling pressure by putting another rate increase back into the discussion. Crude above $93 is keeping the inflation risk alive and giving the Fed a reason to stay cautious regardless of what the growth data shows. Gold needs yields to resume their decline and the dollar to stay soft. Thursday has one of those conditions and not the other. The metal failed just short of the 200-day moving average at $4511.57 and dropped back under the bear market threshold at $4481.78. The two-week support at $4416.82 is the first level where buyers showed up before Wednesday’s rally. Below that, the swing bottom at $4311.04 is where the trend changes. The 50-day is moving higher, which is a signal the bulls want to develop. The 200-day overhead remains the line that separates the current range from a move that draws institutional money back into gold.
On the day gold closed up $26.90 at $4516.30, and silver closed up $2.30 at $68.03.
On Friday (8/21/26) the price of gold jumped higher, challenging $4630.00 in early trade, helped by a weaker dollar, which lost a full point this past week. This bullish happiness is also supported by solid technicals which now suggest that $5000.00 gold is back in play even though the FOMC is still worried about rising inflation and will likely hold interest rates steady through the holiday season. So, can higher gold prices and higher interest rates coexist? Perhaps, but this is a complicated question. For now, rising tension in the Middle East and heated rhetoric between the US and Iran underpin gold prices and spur safe haven demand. Across our trading desk the big bullion buyers have returned and there is little selling of either gold or silver bullion.
Reuters (Sumit Saha and Sati Verma) – Gold rallies to 3-month high on weaker dollar, bullish technicals – Gold climbed to a more than three-month high on Friday, on track for its third straight weekly gain, aided by a break above key technical levels as the U.S. Treasury’s buyback support plan dragged on the dollar. Spot gold climbed 1.6% to $4,590.51 per ounce by 10:19 a.m. EDT (1419 GMT), earlier touching $4,604.18 — its highest since May 15. U.S. gold futures rose 1.7% to $4,647.00. Prices have gained about 5% so far this week, including the biggest one-day rise since early February on Wednesday. The metal is also trading above all key moving averages, having broken above the closely watched 200-day moving average of around $4,513, a move technical analysts typically view as bullish. Spot gold breaks above its 200-day moving average – Spot gold has broken above its key moving averages but is still down about $1,000 from its record peak of $5,594.82/oz hit on January 29. “A big factor, of course, is technical… next step is $4,700 if this momentum continues, but also I think it’s been very much driven by a drop in the U.S. dollar,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. The dollar languished near its lowest level since mid-May as investors questioned whether the U.S. Treasury’s efforts to calm the bond markets might end up undermining confidence in the currency. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on Thursday said the government could expand Treasury buybacks further, a day after the department unveiled plans to double buybacks of longer-dated securities. “Gold call option demand has risen sharply amid renewed demand for global macro-policy hedges, creating a mech Goldman noted that weaker market conviction around U.S. rate hikes following the Fed’s July pause and softer economic data has helped revive speculative interest in COMEX gold and demand for rate-sensitive gold ETFs, with rising and elevated call option demand likely amplifying the move. On physical demand, the recent rally in prices deterred retail buyers in India, while demand in top consumer China held steady. Poland’s central bank slowed gold buying to 7.8 metric tons in July, data showed on Friday. Elsewhere, spot silver gained nearly 2% to $69.43 per ounce, platinum climbed 3.8% to $1,897.36, while palladium rose 0.6% to $1,342.30. All metals are set for a weekly gain.
On the day gold closed up $107.80, and silver closed up $1.44 at $69.47.
Platinum closed up $56.30 at $1887.30, and palladium closed up $12.20 at $1348.50.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,595.00 resistance level, with a sustained move targeting $4,671.00 and then $4,778.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,447.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,320.00 and then $4,228.00. First resistance is seen at $4,595.00 and then at $4,671.00. First support is seen at $4,447.00 and then at $4,320.00. Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $69.48, with a move above that level targeting $71.03. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $68.02, with deeper downside targets at $66.55 and then $64.20. First resistance is seen at $69.48 and then at $71.03. Next support is seen at $68.02 and then at $66.55.
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