Commentary for Friday, July 24, 2026 – Today gold closed up $21.00 at $4067.60, and silver closed up $0.86 at $58.66. While some insiders believe the price of gold is stuck in neutral, I am more optimistic that what traders are now considering is a basing price model for gold which is hindered by a hawkish FOMC. Secure in its knowledge that higher interest rates will push inflation lower over the near to medium term. For this theory to further develop gold must hold around the psychologically important $4000.00 level. A back and forth movement on either side of this key figure suggests that when the FOMC lowers interest rates, perhaps early next year investors will take advantage of fresh record highs. On the other hand, if you believe gold will move lower under the current circumstances, I believe there is not much downside at these levels with tension heating up in the Middle East as Trump promised a decision on “massive attacks” against Iran yesterday. Last Friday gold closed at $4012.70, and silver closed at $56.04. On the week gold was higher by $54.90, and silver was higher by $2.62.
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On Monday (7/20/26) the price of gold moved on both sides of unchanged, testing overhead resistance ($4033.00) and downside support ($4000.00). This is surprising considering the escalating war between the US and Iran as Middle East tension continues to rise. Still the belief that the FOMC will not lower interest rates anytime soon may tether the price of gold within a few hundred dollar of current levels. So, the bulls are not exactly dancing in the streets but gold’s ability to fight for support around $4000.00 suggests that we might have reached a short term bottom, further suggesting that fresh new highs might be in the making over the longer term.
Reuters (Noel John and Vedika Thorat) – Gold little changed as investors weigh US-Iran developments, Fed signals – Gold held steady on Monday, as investors assessed developments in the escalating U.S.-Iran conflict, which lifted energy prices and clouded the outlook for U.S. interest rates. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $4,011.96 per ounce, as of 09:25 a.m. EDT (1325 GMT). U.S. gold futures for August delivery lost 0.1% to $4,015.80. Yields on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note gained 0.5%. The U.S. dollar was up 0.1%, making bullion more expensive for overseas buyers. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said they had struck U.S. military assets across the Middle East after another night of U.S. bombardment of Iranian cities, while Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis declared a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia. Brent crude oil prices steadied after touching a more than one-month high, stoking inflation fears and adding to bets of higher-for-longer interest rates. While gold is typically seen as an inflation hedge, high interest rates tend to diminish the appeal of the non-yielding asset. “Higher energy prices remain in focus as a re-escalation in the Middle East tensions add to concerns that last week’s cooler than expected inflationary data may not be enough to deter the Fed from raising interest rates later this year,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack added her voice to a growing chorus of policymakers arguing interest rates may need to rise to beat back persistent inflation, setting up a charged debate at the Fed’s next meeting and the possibility of dissents at Kevin Warsh’s second meeting as the central bank’s chairman. Traders now see an 83% chance of a U.S. interest rate hike in December, versus 73% last week, according to the CME FedWatch tool. “We expect that the Fed will use balance sheet adjustments and not raise interest rates until much later this year. We believe that the realization of this in a month or two is going to actually add some support to the gold market and pressure the dollar,” Meger said. Elsewhere, spot silver gained 1.7% to $56.87 per ounce, platinum was down 0.3% at $1,586.21, and palladium rose 1.3% to $1,264.34.
On the day gold closed down $2.40 at $4010.30, and silver closed up $0.76 at $56.80.
On Tuesday (7/21/26) the price of gold got a shot in the arm, testing overhead resistance around $4080.00 and support around $4048.00. But traders claim that if gold broke below $3900.00 it would portend even lower prices, pressured by an FOMC seeking to cap inflation using higher interest rates. This latest jump is good for gold sentiment but in the end higher interest rates will pressure gold lower in the medium term. While the Middle East continues to raise tensions the downside in gold at these levels may not be significant. Investors should consider the possibility that gold bullion may be oversold at these levels, suggesting higher prices in the short term.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Bounces Off $4,000 Floor amid Middle East Uncertainty – The gold market rallied a bit early on Tuesday but is still seeing a bit of downward pressure after short-term rallies. Technical Analysis – The gold market rallied a bit during the early part of the trading session here on Tuesday as the $4,000 level continues to attract a certain amount of attention and headlines. The $4,000 level makes for good news, but really at this point, it is market memory that I think most traders are counting on here. If the market were to break down below the $3,900 level, it could signify that the support level has been broken. Right now, it looks like we’re happy to just bounce along in this area after recently forming the so-called death cross when the 50-day EMA breaks down below the 200-day EMA. It’s a very bearish long-term technical signal that, quite frankly, I don’t put too much into, but it is something that causes some headlines. High Interest Rates and Middle East Uncertainty Weigh on Gold – Interest rates being as high as they are in the United States continue to work against the value of gold, and that hasn’t changed. In fact, interest rates are slightly higher as I record this, and that continues to be a major problem. It’s a non-yielding asset, so a lot of money managers are going to feel more comfortable just simply collecting interest sitting on cash, which is essentially what the bond market is. We have been in a tight range for a while between $4,000 and $4,200. Nothing’s changed here, despite the fact that we did rally a bit early in the day. Until we get some type of settling of the situation in the Middle East, a lot of markets, including the bond market and, by extension, gold, may struggle to make serious moves.
On the day gold closed up $60.80 at $4071.10, and silver closed up $2.04 at $58.84.
On Wednesday (7/22/26) the price of gold made fresh recent highs, testing overhead resistance around $4165.00, driven I suspect by the escalating war between the US and Iran over who controls passage through the Strait of Hormuz. So, for now the possibility of higher interest rates are taking a back seat to escalating hostilities in the area. Thus, the higher prices in gold. Because the outcome of the war in the Middle East is uncertain, investors should look for higher prices in both gold and silver, and here they are. But this too is a very dicey bet. In all cases the smart money will remain liquid keeping in mind that the latest Reuters polls claim the Fed will raise interest rates twice by March of next year, thus again pressuring the price of gold lower.
Reuters (Sukanya Mitra) – Gold rose to its highest level in two weeks on Wednesday, buoyed by a softer dollar and technical buying, as markets weighed signs of lingering tensions in the Middle East and awaited fresh cues on U.S. interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Spot gold gained 1.3% to $4,130.59 per ounce by 08:32 am EDT (1232 GMT), having hit its highest level since July 7 at $4,141.59 per ounce earlier in the day. U.S gold futures for August delivery rose 1.5% to $4,135.40. “Gold exploded higher, punching above $4,140 as a weaker dollar and dip buyers injected fresh inspiration into bulls,” said Lukman Otunuga, senior research analyst at FXTM. However, “the underlying bearish fundamentals may cap upside gains — especially with oil prices up over 3% this morning,” he added. The U.S dollar index softened on Wednesday, making greenback-priced bullion more affordable for buyers overseas. U.S Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Wednesday Washington is willing to negotiate an end to the Iran crisis but Tehran is not serious about talks. The widening conflict led four tankers loaded with Saudi crude for Asia to reverse course in the Red Sea on Wednesday after threats from Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis, who control the coast on the southern route out. Oil prices rose to a six-week high on the news. Elevated oil prices due to Gulf supply disruptions have been weighing on gold prices as they raised expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates, which tend to diminish the appeal of non-yielding gold. Meanwhile, the Fed is likely to keep its key interest rate steady for the rest of 2026, data from a Reuters Poll showed, with markets pricing in two rate hikes by the end of March next year. Traders anticipate about a 72% chance of an interest rate hike in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Investors are now eyeing the FOMC interest-rate decision meeting next week for further clues on the Fed’s monetary stance. Spot silver rose 1.1% to $59.4 per ounce, platinum gained 1.1% to $1,647.17 and palladium up 2.9% to $1,319.74.
On the day gold closed up $75.80 at $4146.90, and silver closed up $1.18 at $60.02.
On Thursday (7/23/26) – Today the price of gold dipped on the open, testing support around $4050.00 as Treasury yields rise and a firmer dollar outweighs safe-haven demand tied to the US-Iran conflict (Kitco). As expected, the European Central Bank left its interest rate unchanged. And firm interest rates tend to discourage higher gold prices, at least in the shorter term. I suspect we will not see much change in this policy designed to slow inflation through this year. Which means gold investors will not enjoy many fireworks to the upside through the holiday season. That being said the ongoing war between the US and Iran has not cooled to any degree and may even become more dangerous so higher prices in gold bullion cannot be ruled out.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Trapped Between $4,000 Support and $4,200 Resistance – The gold market dropped early on Thursday as the overall consolidation area continues to be a major area of importance in the market. Higher rates continue to be a massive problem, though. Technical Analysis – The gold market has dropped fairly significantly during the early hours on Thursday as the overall consolidation area continues to play out. The $4,000 level on the bottom has been support, with the $4,200 level on the top being resistance. Ultimately, this is a market that is likely to continue to be very noisy and choppy, but I also recognize that there are a lot of things going on outside of the actual market itself that have a certain amount of influence. This includes, of course, the higher interest rates in the United States, which, as interest rates rise, a lot of times that can cause issues for gold. Macro Headwinds and Technical Death Cross Weigh on Gold – And the energy shock that’s being priced into the bond market has people running from anything remotely close to risk at times. The 50-day EMA broke down below the 200-day EMA a couple of weeks ago, kicking off the so-called death cross. That is a technical indicator that a lot of people will look at with suspicion, and this is typically something that longer-term traders look at as a very bearish turn of events. Whether or not that actually plays out remains to be seen, but what does look fairly obvious at this point in time is that we have been in a range for a couple of weeks and have not been able to break out of this $200 area. This area continues to be noisy in general, and an area that short-term traders will continue to be active in, but longer-term traders will be trying to find some kind of bigger answer to bigger questions. Silver Pulls Back From $60 as US Rates Climb – The silver market has pulled back early on Thursday, as we continue to see a bit of volatility in this market. Higher rates continue to be a thorn in the side of traders. Technical Analysis – The silver market has pulled back from the $60 level again during the trading session here on Thursday, as $60 continues to be a large round, psychologically significant figure, and US rates continue to climb. With that being the case, it’s not a huge surprise to see that we are, in fact, struggling to keep the market afloat. The market rolling over from here would be a continuation of what we have seen for some time now, and rates look like they are not willing to slow down. This could end up being a problem. The market had recently seen support near the $55 level. A breakdown below there, and we start to look at $50 as the next support level based on historical price action. This goes back several years as an important level for market memory to return. Climbing Yields and Geopolitical Risk Keep Pressure on Silver – To the upside, the market did reach the $63 region at one point a couple of weeks back. That has been a bit of a swing high. The 50-day EMA is racing towards that area and offering a potential ceiling as well. If the market were to attack that indicator, it would be a significant shift in momentum, probably fueled by risk-taking behavior around the world, not just here in the silver market. Right now, the uncertainty in the Middle East continues to drive inflation expectations higher, driving rates higher, which consequently will typically work against the value of silver. This has been the case for some time now, and that correlation will be something that a lot of people will be watching.
On the day gold closed down $100.30 at $4046.60, and silver closed down $2.22 at $57.80.
On Friday (7/24/26) the price of gold pushed to session highs around $4080.00 (a nice plus) even though the oddsmakers claim that interest rates will remain steady through year end. We do not see much selling of gold bullion across our trading desk going into the weekend. On the other hand, the public has been a big seller of silver bullion this week. Over the longer term, given the unpredictable outcome as the Middle East again heats with both sides shooting at each other prices of both gold and silver may hold up nicely and may even make fresh new highs this year.
Reuters (Noel John) – Gold holds steady as investors eye Middle East developments ahead of Fed rate decision – Gold held steady on Friday as Brent crude retreated from above $100 a barrel, while investors assessed developments in the Middle East conflict and their implications for inflation ahead of the U.S. interest rate decision next week. Spot gold was unchanged at $4,046.10 per ounce by 09:17 a.m. EDT (1317 GMT), after falling about 2% in the previous session. The contract was up 0.7% for the week, supported by dip buying earlier in the week. U.S. gold futures for August delivery gained 0.3% to $4,063.60. “Gold and silver are carving out a base around $3,950 and $55, respectively, despite relentlessly higher yields. While a stop-loss move below can’t be ruled out on a sharp war escalation, gold feels ready to move back higher… A Fed clearly on hold next week would help,” said Tai Wong, an independent metals trader. Brent crude oil prices fell over 3%, after rising over 7% to settle above $100 in the previous session for the first time since May after Iran-aligned Houthis said they struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea. Bullion has fallen about 23% since the U.S.-backed war with Iran began in late February, pressured by expectations that war-driven inflation could keep interest rates higher for longer. While gold is seen as a hedge against inflation, higher rates typically weigh on the non-yielding metal. Investors now await the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy meeting outcome next week, when it is largely expected to keep rates unchanged. Traders are pricing in about an 80% chance of a U.S. rate hike in September, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. “Recent strength in bullion appears driven largely by dip-buying and short covering. This follows the sharp correction from record highs earlier this year… Elevated oil prices and rising yields are likely to cap any recovery, leaving $4,000 as the key near-term level to watch,” analysts at ING said in a note. Among other metals, spot silver rose 0.4% to $57.92 per ounce, platinum fell 1.3% to $1,582.40, and palladium lost 1% to $1,244.24.
On the day gold closed up $21.00 at $4067.60, and silver closed up $0.86 at $58.66.
Platinum closed down $5.70 at $1593.40, and palladium closed down $8.60 at $1246.70.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bears have the overall near-term technical advantage as prices remain below the 50-period moving average near $4,067 and the 100-period moving average near $4,063, while trendline resistance near $4,150 continues to cap rebounds. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above $4,067, with a sustained move targeting $4,139 and then $4,150. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,030, with deeper downside targets at $3,998 and then $3,957. First resistance is seen at $4,064.90 and then at $4,067. First support is seen at $4,030 and then at $3,998. Spot silver bulls have improved the near-term technical setup after prices rebounded from $57.10 support and moved back above the 50-period moving average near $58.22. Silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above $58.56, with a move above that level targeting $59.94 and then $60.95. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $57.10, with deeper downside targets at $56.12 and then $54.69. First resistance is seen at $58.56 and then at $59.94. Next support is seen at $57.10 and then at $56.12.
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