Commentary for Friday, September 25, 2026 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed up $23.20 at $4286.20, and silver closed up $0.79 at $64.25. The elephant in the living room remains rising interest rates. And the question investors are now pondering is whether Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will remain hawkish when it comes to those rates. The inside money is betting on another quarter point hike in rates by the holidays. As the FOMC moves to break rising inflation numbers, created by higher crude oil prices. So fresh new highs in the price of gold does not seem likely this year unless a slowing economy forces the Fed to lower interest rates. But be aware of two important points when considering this Rube Goldberg – the first is that investors are not net sellers of gold bullion even at these elevated prices. And two any agreement with Iran is tenuous because most see Iran’s insistence on owning nuclear weapons as the classic deal breaker. Last Friday gold closed at $4385.90, and silver closed at $66.56. On the week gold was down $99.70, and silver was down $2.31.
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On Monday (9/21/26) the price of gold steadied despite higher interest rates, testing overheard resistance around $4375.00 and testing recent support around $4323.00 so this trade is defensive. And will remain that way until the always problematic movement through the Strait of Hormuz moves closer to some kind of resolution. Both Trump and Iran continue to threaten each other, but it seems some of this steam has dissipated which might suggest back door talks or conditions, are in the making. So, while this war remains a volatile geopolitical situation one thing is sure, its cost is highly inflationary. A dynamic which favors bullish sentiment in the long term.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – $4,300–$4,500 Range Holds as Rates Weigh – Gold remains range-bound between $4,300 support and $4,500 resistance as elevated U.S. rates weigh on momentum around the 50-day EMA. Gold markets find themselves a little bit negative in early trading on Monday as we are hanging around the 50-day EMA. This is a market that’s been somewhat range-bound for a while, and I think that does make a certain amount of sense with elevated interest rates in the United States. It doesn’t do a lot of favors for non-yielding assets such as gold and silver, for that matter. So, being range-bound is not a huge surprise. We basically are stuck between $4,500 on the top, $4,300 on the bottom, and really no real momentum to go in one direction or the other at this point. Middle East and Interest Rates as Key Factors – It’s very likely this is a market that will continue to see a lot of questions asked of it. It does make a certain amount of sense with elevated interest rates that non-yielding assets such as gold might struggle. That being said, we are in an environment where, if there is some progress made in the Middle East, it might actually lift gold, despite the fact that traders will be out there looking for safety via gold. Because of the interest-rate situation, it is about energy. As long as energy remains threatened, it makes sense that gold prices will suffer by default. That being said, we still have a well-defined range, and that is something that I am paying close attention to. This is a market that will continue to be more or less short-term focused from what I can tell at this point. Until we get clarity, things will remain a bit hit-or-miss. Silver Price Forecast: $60–$70 Range Holds as Rates Weigh – Silver remains rangebound between $60 support and $70 resistance as flat moving averages and elevated U.S. interest rates keep momentum subdued. Silver Technical Analysis – Silver is somewhat choppy and tight during early trading here on Monday as we are trying to figure out what to do next. Quite frankly, one of the biggest drivers of the silver market currently is interest rates. Interest rates in America are elevated, although they have drifted slightly lower in the early part of the session. Silver finds itself hanging around both the 50- and 200-day EMA indicators, which are both flat, thereby suggesting that there isn’t much in the way of momentum. Big support sitting below – The $60 level is a significant support level. The $70 level above is a significant ceiling, and we’ve just been bouncing around in this vicinity since June. Ultimately, we will have to make a bigger decision, but with the massive amount of energy inflation that we have currently, it’s difficult for silver to really take off. Interest rates work against the value of silver because, quite frankly, it’s easier to buy paper than it is to store silver. That is the general correlation. Higher interest rates don’t typically do a lot for metals, although it should also be said that it depends on why. The fact that it’s energy inflation makes it a little bit unique, in the sense that the U.S. dollar isn’t the sole culprit. A lot of times, silver is very sensitive to the rise and fall of the U.S. dollar, but right now, this is more about rates and the fact that there is an attractive yield on the 10-year yield, 2-year yield, etc. Choppy trading has been the norm, but I don’t see signs of that changing just yet.
On the day gold closed down $40.10 at $4345.80, and silver closed down $0.73 at $65.83.
On Tuesday (9/22/26) gold moved lower to some degree as it tested overhead resistance at $4345.00 and underlying support at $4290.00, finishing the day mildly in the red, as a strong dollar capped higher gold prices for the time being. And insiders are looking for another interest rate hike by the holiday season. So as far as interest rates are concerned this looks like the “higher for longer” scenario which may pressure the price of gold lower over time. The latest news from Trump and Iran hints at talks as the President calls Iran the “bully of the Middle East” during his United Nations address. Still a full blown attack on Iran seems unlikely. So how does this change the gold investment dynamic? Lower oil prices may help further cool inflation, a plus for bullish sentiment. Less tension over the Strait of Hormuz means less fresh safe haven demand, a minus for bullish sentiment. But this Middle East dynamic is complicated and could spin out of control considering the ramped up rhetoric from both sides. I would not be a seller of gold bullion for the time being even though higher interest rates may threaten higher gold prices.
Reuters (Anjana Anil) – Gold eases as traders cement bets for higher for longer interest rates – Gold prices edged lower on Tuesday as markets factored in more restrictive monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve this year, while traders also kept close tabs on the Middle East conflict. Spot gold was down 0.3% at $4,332.34 per ounce by 9:25 a.m. ET (1325 GMT). US gold futures fell 0.3% to $4,370.40. “The problem remains that despite oil trending down somewhat, the market is continuing to robustly price Fed hikes…over the last few days, we’ve had a bit of strength on the US dollar side, and that’s typically a negative for gold,” said Bart Melek, global head of commodity strategy at TD Securities. Traders see a 90% chance of a rate hike in December, compared to 80% last week, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Markets focused on monetary tightening as St. Louis Fed President Musalem and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee signaled the need for further rate hikes to lower inflation stemming from strong demand and rising energy prices. This comes after the Fed raised interest rates last week and Chair Kevin Warsh flagged more hikes to come in the months ahead. Since the US-Israeli war on Iran broke out in late February, higher energy prices have stoked inflation concerns, forcing central banks around the world to adopt restrictive policy stances. This, in turn, has pressured gold prices, which have shed over 22% since hitting an all-time high of $5,594.82/oz in January. Although bullion is traditionally considered an inflation hedge, it loses its appeal to yield-bearing assets in a high-interest-rate environment. Oil prices fell to a two-week low on Tuesday as prospects for Gulf supplies improved, with Iran signaling it could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within seven days and Saudi Arabia set to resume exports from the port of Yanbu.
On the day gold closed down $6.90 at $4338.90, and silver closed up $0.10 at $65.93.
On Wednesday (9/23/26) the price of gold moved lower, testing support around $4275.00, reacting to steady or perhaps higher interest rates. As the Dollar Index moved to weekly highs around 101.00. So not a great start for bullish sentiment as the dollar gains strength and pressures gold lower, which closed in the red for the second day. At any rate gold is playing catch up for now. But considering mounting US and world debt and the ongoing war between Iran and the United States it seems to me that all the bulls need is a fresh spark to refocus $5000.00 gold.
FXEmpire (Christoher Lewis) – $4,300 Support Tested as Yields Rise – Gold remains trapped between $4,300 support and $4,500 resistance as the U.S. 10-year yield approaches 5%, keeping the near-term outlook choppy. Technical Analysis – The gold market has been a little bit negative during the trading session on Wednesday in the early hours, but it looks like we are still very much in the same consolidation area that we had been in. The $4,300 level continues to be support, with the $4,500 level above being a resistance barrier. The market at this point in time looks like a situation where we are more sideways than anything else. However, if we were to turn around and break down below the recent bounce, then that could open up a move down to the uptrend line. Interest Rates Continue to Be a Key Driver – If interest rates do continue to rise, that could work against gold. There is a lot of debt in the world and there is a lot of fear in the world, but that seems to be ignored, at least in the short term, because of interest rates. I think this is a simple matter of watching how they are going. The 10-year yield in America is right at 4.99% again, and that is something that is going to be a major mover of this market. Headlines could as well, coming out of the Middle East. If we get some signs of progress, that could send gold higher, as it should send rates lower. But as I said, right now, as a technical trader, I am probably looking for some type of bounce closer to the $4,300 level. I expect messy and choppy trading, but whether or not we get any significant move, we will just have to wait and see. Silver Price Forecast: $63.50–$70 Range Keeps Traders Waiting – Silver remains trapped between $63.50 support and $70 resistance as rising U.S. rates and a stronger dollar offset longer-term supply and demand strength. Technical Analysis – The silver market has fallen pretty significantly during the early part of the trading session here on Wednesday. Traders continue to see a lot of noisy and conflicting headlines. Keep in mind that the interest rate situation in the United States is rising, and therefore it works against the market pricing. The 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA are now flat, so it suggests that traders are looking at this through the prism of a range. I think that probably holds here, as there are two conflicting forces. Silver Supply Continues to Be in Demand, With Low Supply – There is the fact that the supply of silver is not growing while demand is. It puts a little bit of bullish pressure there, but we also have a stronger U.S. dollar and interest rates working against it. So, we are basically in a range between $63.50 and $70. With this, traders are more likely than not going to stick to range-bound systems, trying to take advantage of the back-and-forth behavior that this market is currently showing. I don’t have any real signs on the chart that I’m looking at that suggest that silver is about to take off. But if it breaks out of those ranges, then we have to reset and look at our expectations for this market, and where it is going. Longer term, I like silver a lot, truthfully. But using a leveraged CFD position or a futures position, it’s a different conversation. As far as physical silver is concerned, I still am bullish at that. But right now, it looks like we’re just kind of drifting sideways, trying to figure out where to go next.
On the day gold closed down $57.60 at $4281.30, and silver closed down $1.55 at $64.30.
On Thursday (9/24/26) – Today investors are dealing with many cross currents buffeting the price of gold which is trading between $4290.00 and $4250.00. And is being pressured lower by higher interest rates. This amounts to a one week low in gold’s price as the Fed raised interest rates a quarter point yesterday and is talking about another rate increase by year end. At the same time the Middle East is creating the perfect environment for higher oil prices and therefore higher inflation over time, which should be seen as a plus for bullish sentiment. Still there is reason to believe tension in the Middle East will decrease as Iran’s President now claims that it is “ready for dialogue, diplomacy, and negotiations without accepting the language of force”. Whether this pressures the price of gold lower remains to be seen however because Iran is an Islamic Republic with no diplomatic ties with Israel. They see Israel as an occupying force so investors will likely deal with this tinder box through safe haven ownership of gold bullion.
Reuters (Anjana Anil) – Gold at one week-low as higher oil, hawkish Fed weigh – Gold prices eased on Thursday, hitting a one week-low, as a rise in oil prices and a hawkish shift in rhetoric anchored expectations of higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve. Spot gold was down 0.4% at $4,271.16 per ounce as of 9:35 a.m. ET (1335 GMT), after having hit its lowest since September 16. US gold futures for December delivery lost 0.3% to $4,306. “Gold continues to be burdened by higher energy prices along with higher interest rates… with higher energy prices, the expectation of inflationary concerns grows and the potential for additional rate hikes by the Fed,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Oil prices rose more than 1% as diplomatic talks between the US and Iran showed little sign of progress. Energy prices can feed into headline inflation as manufacturers pass on higher costs. This forces central banks to adopt more restrictive policy stances to reign in price pressures. The Fed raised interest rates for the first time in three years last week and signaled further rate hikes this year. Several Fed officials reinforced the need for more rate increases, with Governor Barr being the latest to highlight the need for tighter monetary policy. Traders are now pricing a 66% chance of a rate hike in October, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. While gold is a traditional inflation hedge, rising interest rates tarnish its appeal. Pressuring bullion, the dollar hit a two-month high, making greenback-priced gold more expensive for overseas buyers, while US 10-year Treasury yields hovered at a near two-decade high, increasing the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding metal. “Gold’s recent support low around $4,235 is the first level to watch. A break could expose the market to a deeper correction and potentially renewed focus on the June-July area around $4,000,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. Spot silver fell 1.8% to $63.29 per ounce, platinum fell 0.2% to $1,746.44, while palladium gained 0.5% to $1,266.40.
On the day gold closed down $18.30 at $4263.00, and silver closed down $0.92 at $63.46.
On Friday (9/25/26) gold moved higher on the open, testing overhead resistance at $4308.00 but the paper trade sold this rally testing recent support levels around $4260.00. So, it seems that the specter of rising interest rates takes center stage, and traders will likely remain defensive perhaps through the holidays and into next year. This theory also holds up to some degree because Fed Chair Kevin Warsh remains a recognized hawk when it comes to interest rate policy. And inflation remains a big threat reflecting higher crude oil prices over the longer term. The other side of this complicated coin suggests that Middle East tension might be moving lower as Tehran proposes a 7-day plan to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks with the United States. But I believe higher gold prices in the longer term can coexist with rising interest rates when you consider the huge amount of fiat paper money the U.S. prints each day. Google US Debt Clock for a wakeup call if you believe fresh new highs in gold are not in the making.
Reuters (Anjana Anil) – Mounting rate hike bets keep weekly loss in sight for gold – Gold prices edged lower on Friday and were headed for a weekly loss, as concerns about sticky inflation, hawkish signals from Federal Reserve policymakers, and higher US Treasury yields dented bullion’s appeal. Spot gold was down 0.1% at $4,274.18 per ounce by 10:00 a.m. ET (1400 GMT). Prices were headed for a weekly loss, down about 2.4% so far. US gold futures rose 0.3% to $4,310.80. “The unrelenting surge in Treasury yields has set gold on course for its 4th weekly decline over the past five weeks,” said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Bybit. US Treasury yields were higher, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. “The zero-yielding precious metal has struggled against a cacophony of headwinds, including persistent upside inflation risks, runaway Treasury yields, and a hawkish Fed,” Tan added. Since the onset of the US-Israeli war on Iran, rising energy prices kept inflation concerns alive, forcing central banks to adopt tighter policy frameworks to keep price pressures under check. The Fed raised interest rates by a quarter-point last week, its first increase in three years, and signaled more hikes ahead. Traders are pricing in a 64% chance of an October hike and a 93% chance of one in December, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. Gold is traditionally considered an inflation hedge and a safe investment during geopolitical uncertainty. However, higher interest rates tarnish their attractiveness as investors turn to yield-bearing assets. Bullion has fallen about 19% from its February 27 session high. Negotiators in New York are exploring a phased path out of war that would involve Tehran reopening the Strait of Hormuz and Washington lifting its economic blockade of Iran, according to sources. Oil prices dropped more than 1%.
On the day gold closed up $23.20 at $4286.20, and silver closed up $0.79 at $64.25.
Platinum closed up $25.60 at $1774.70, and palladium closed down $6.50 at $1263.70.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,304.00 to $4,345.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,396.00 and then $4,400.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,245.00, with deeper downside targets at $4,216.00 and then the $4,181.00 to $4,216.00 range. First resistance is seen at $4,304.00 and then at $4,345.00. First support is seen at $4,245.00 and then at $4,216.00. Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $64.920 to $65.830 area, with a move above that zone targeting $67.23 and then $68.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $62.750, with deeper downside targets at $62.350 and then $61.460. First resistance is seen at $64.920 and then at $65.830. Next support is seen at $62.750 and then at $62.350.
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