Commentary for Friday, November 6, 2026 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed down $38.00 at $4064.50, and silver closed down $0.43 at $51.80. In a way it is funny how fast sentiment can switch sides in the bullion market. This week saw the bulls roar on Wednesday when gold had its biggest rally since August. Our parking lot was crowded, folks could not get their money out fast enough and $5000.00 gold was a cinch. Today, while the price of gold has not fallen out of bed there may be a few clouds developing in the bullish scenario. The parking lot is not exactly empty, but people are talking football. To me this market feels like it has lost some momentum, especially in the short term. And it might make sense to be cautious and see how this latest Republican upheaval shakes out. Last Friday gold closed at $3885.70, and silver closed $49.10. On the week gold was up $178.80, and silver was up $2.70.
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On Monday (11/2/26) the price of gold opened rather flat around $3900.00 and then skyrocketed to daily highs approaching $4000.00. A surprising jump, considering that gold dropped $139.00 last Saturday. Still, with the oddsmakers betting on another hike in interest rates by the holidays it is difficult to understand today’s pop to the upside. I could make an argument about bargain hunting because there is a great deal of speculative money setting on the sidelines. Gold’s general direction year to date has been a bullish disappointment. In March of 2026 speculators were placing all their bets on $5000.00 gold before Christmas. But as this optimism stalled, we did not see much in the way of selling at our trading desk. This confusing pricing pattern and Trump’s recent comment about the US versus Iran war including “the hammer” still being on the table carries enough bombast to spark the sudden gold price jump we see today. The best I can make of these fireworks is that investors are watching the rise in Middle East tension one day at a time. Investors should expect continued volatility and keep their seatbelts fastened.
(Kitco NewsWire) – Spot gold and silver prices were higher in early U.S. trading Monday, recovering from Friday’s sharp losses as renewed diplomatic efforts involving Iran and the United States pushed crude oil prices lower and eased some inflation concerns ahead of a busy week of U.S. economic releases and midterm elections. Gold found support from perceived bargain hunting and declining Treasury yields after suffering its worst monthly performance since 2008, while silver rebounded more strongly following heavy liquidation across precious metals and technology shares. Spot gold was trading near $3,945.70 an ounce, up $67.90, or 1.80%, while spot silver was trading near $50.940, up $1.810, or 3.66%. Market positioning remains focused on the possibility of additional Federal Reserve tightening in December following last week’s decision to leave the benchmark federal funds target range unchanged at 3.75% to 4.00%. Interest rate futures continue to indicate a substantial probability of another increase before year-end, with the latest available estimates placing the likelihood near 75%. Strong economic growth and persistent underlying inflation support the case for additional tightening, while moderating employment costs, weaker manufacturing momentum and Friday’s sharp equity-market selloff provide counterarguments. Lower yields, a softer dollar and declining crude oil prices provided a more favorable backdrop for gold, although the prospect of further rate increases continues to limit the conviction behind the recovery. The Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran situation remains a significant source of uncertainty in global energy markets, although fresh diplomatic developments have reduced immediate concerns about another major military escalation. Iran announced Monday that it could reopen the strategic waterway and resume nuclear negotiations with Washington within two days, shortening an earlier proposed seven-day timetable, provided the United States accepts conditions that include lifting the naval blockade of Iranian ports, easing sanctions on Iranian oil exports and agreeing to broader ceasefire arrangements. Tehran maintains that commercial vessels would transit through a route coordinated with Oman under Iranian supervision. However, Washington has not accepted the proposal, and substantial differences remain over sanctions relief, maritime security and the terms of any lasting settlement. The announcement followed several days of negotiations involving Iranian and Qatari officials and a weekend that passed without the major military escalation some traders had feared. China also plans to send a special envoy to Iran, Oman and Saudi Arabia in early to mid-November to encourage regional de-escalation. Nevertheless, the underlying security situation remains fragile. Recent attacks on commercial vessels, continuing tensions involving Iranian-aligned Houthi forces and unresolved U.S.-Iran military threats leave the Strait of Hormuz exposed to further disruption. The reopening proposal offers a possible path toward restoring more normal tanker traffic, but the absence of a confirmed agreement means elevated insurance costs, shipping restrictions and a geopolitical risk premium are likely to remain important features of the energy market.
On the day gold closed up $71.20 at $3956.90, and silver closed up $1.62 at $50.72.
On Tuesday (11/3/26) the price of gold tested support around $3892.00 in the early trade and then bounced higher testing overhead resistance around $3962.00, finishing the day mildly in the red. Considering Monday’s rather powerful close I get the feeling the bulls are losing momentum. Possibly because of an increasingly hawkish FOMC which is leaning towards another interest rate hike by Christmas. But the real question of whether gold will be higher or lower by the holidays is a mixed bag at best. Trying to call the price of gold on the short term is a gamble because the Middle East remains unstable. Investors may consider staying liquid by selling a small portion of their bullion holdings. But in the long run, the lower the price of gold goes, the better the deal for investors. There is a lot of money sitting on the sidelines, but we need some bullish fireworks to make $5000.00 gold a consideration.
FXEmpire (Chrisopher Lewis) – Gold: Monday’s Advance Faces a Fresh Test from U.S. Labor Data – Gold rebounds sharply despite rising real yields, but resistance near $4,000 and Friday’s U.S. jobs report raise doubts about the rally’s sustainability. Gold kicks off the Tuesday session on the back of a strong session on Monday, but without straightforward assistance from falling real yields. The COMEX December 2026 gold futures settlement price was $3,969.60 per troy ounce, a gain of $70.70. This is interesting because it establishes the move, but does not establish the cause. The distinction becomes important when comparing gold with the Treasury market. The official 5-year real par yield rose to 2.31% yesterday from 2.25% on Friday, while the 10-year measure increased to 2.62% from 2.60%. The chart just below includes every business-day observation from October 26 through yesterday. Push and Pull of Gold Markets – Other influences can dominate a session. My interpretation is that Monday’s combination argues against explaining every gold rise through lower real borrowing costs. Higher real yields can also increase the opportunity cost of holding a metal that pays no interest, but that relationship is not necessarily mechanical as far as pricing is concerned. For example, yesterday we received word that the Iranians were looking to talk to the Americans again, so maybe a little bit of short covering entered the fray. The fact that this was part of the session also limits what can be concluded about the durability of the rise in price. A price advance alongside rising yields demonstrates resilience for the session, but it does not establish that financing conditions have stopped mattering. A stronger fundamental foundation would involve evidence that gold can retain its demand across different interest-rate outcomes, rather than making one day the complete argument. Fed Looking to Hike in December? – The policy backdrop remains restrictive enough to deserve some attention. On October 28, the Federal Reserve held its target rate range at 3.75% to 4.00%. Two dissenters preferred a quarter-point increase. That was a completed policy decision, but when you look at the Federal Reserve outlook, most traders believe it will hike 25 basis points in December. Inflation provides part of the reason to keep the Fed in mind. The BEA’s October 29 release showed September PCE inflation and core inflation of 3.6% year-over-year and 3.1%, respectively. The monthly increases were 0.5% and 0.3%, respectively. For gold, persistent inflation can cause some chaos. It can strengthen interest in preserving purchasing power, but at the same time encourage tighter monetary policy and higher real returns elsewhere, specifically in the bond market. Which asset dominates depends on how investors assess the policy response and the credibility of inflation control. JOLTS Coming Today – Today, we get the September JOLTS number in the United States at 10:00 a.m. EST. This could provide another piece to the puzzle. On Thursday, we get preliminary third-quarter productivity and costs, and on Friday, we get the nonfarm payrolls announcement at 8:30 a.m. EST. These all can have an influence on the gold market, with special attention paid to the Friday announcement. The useful questions at this point will be whether labor demand appears to be cooling and whether incoming evidence changes the balance between inflation pressure and growth resilience. Softer labor demand could weaken the argument for additional restraint, although the effect on gold would probably still depend on the response of yields and currencies. For Tuesday, the market finds itself verifying a stronger prior settlement and a modest rebound in real yields, with meaningful labor data ahead this week. No fresh central-bank purchase investment-flow surge or official news was seen overnight directly related to the market. Technical Analysis – From a technical-analysis standpoint, it looks like the $4,000 level could be tested for resistance. Quite frankly, if the market were to rise above that level, I would not trust that rally until we get through the employment figures on Friday. It is very possible this could be simple short covering. I still prefer to fade rallies as long as real yields remain so strong.
On the day gold closed down $29.00 at $3927.90, and silver closed down $1.13 at $49.59.
On Wednesday (11/4/26) those waiting for a gold shot in the arm certainly got one as American voters decided to give the Democrats a sweeping victory in the mid-term elections. And the price of gold tested overhead resistance around $4056.00 as the dollar moved lower. This move left many Americans wondering what just happened? And many are looking at the unsure and turbulent future. I think the Republicans saw the writing on the wall months ago, but this rebuke against the President is on the brutal side. And from the geopolitical standpoint may give Iran what it needs to dictate its own policy relative to the Strait of Hormuz. What happens between now and Christmas is impossible to say but it appears investors will not be selling much bullion.
Reuters (Anushree Ashish Mukherjee) – Gold heads for biggest daily gain since August on weaker dollar – Gold surged about 3% on Wednesday, on track for its biggest daily gain since mid-August as the dollar tumbled after Democrats swept the US midterm elections, while investors looked to this week’s US non-farm payrolls report for clues on the interest rate outlook.
Spot gold rose 2.9% to $4,041.60 per ounce by 0918 a.m. ET (1418 GMT), while US gold futures for December delivery rose 2.8% to $4,051.80. A sweeping victory by Democrats in the US midterm elections sent the dollar to a more than one-month low on Wednesday, as investors weighed the prospect of tighter AI regulation and its potential drag on economic growth.
Democrats seized control of both the Senate and House, scoring wins in Republican strongholds for the first time in generations as tens of millions of voters delivered a scathing rebuke to President Donald Trump. The weaker dollar boosted gold’s appeal by making dollar-priced bullion less expensive for overseas buyers. Gold drew support from a weaker dollar, reflecting the view that a Congress unable to pass much legislation and likely to be deadlocked would probably be a little negative for the US economy, which will allow the Federal Reserve to maybe lean easier on its monetary policy, said Jim Wyckoff (Kitco). Meanwhile, inflationary concerns persisted and oil prices remained elevated, with Brent crude trading above $100 a barrel as investors awaited Washington’s next move in the US-Israeli war on Iran. Traders currently see a 79% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in December, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Investors are awaiting Friday’s US non-farm payrolls report for further insight into the interest-rate outlook after the Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged in October. “A strong print may corroborate existing market expectations for Fed hikes on the horizon, it is unlikely to raise terminal rate expectations given labor markets are not currently a significant driver of the inflation outlook,” said Daniel Ghali, Head of Metals Research at Deutsche Bank.
On the day gold closed up $133.20 at $4061.10, and silver closed up $2.53 at $52.12.
On Thursday 11/5/26) – The price of gold traded between $4144.00 and $4096.00 finishing in the green as the Dollar Index steadied and perhaps the specter of another interest rate hike lessens to some degree. Investors may want to take a step back and consider how rattled the gold trade has become. And do not assume that because gold is at recent highs that the momentum trade will win the day and $5000.00 is guaranteed in the near term. Still the bulls are smiling going into the weekend and this market is so super charged that prices may continue higher in the shorter term. Which typically draws fresh speculative money into the gold trade.
Reuters (Anushree Ashish Mukherjee) – Gold at over two-week high as dollar, yields weaken; US payrolls data awaited – Gold prices hit a more than two-week high on Thursday as US dollar and Treasury yields weakened after lower oil prices eased inflation concerns, while investors awaited key US payrolls data for rate policy clues. Spot gold was up 1.57% to $4,123.39 per ounce by 9:14 a.m. ET (1414 GMT) after hitting a session high of $4,146.63 per ounce, a level last seen on October 20. Gold had jumped nearly 3.4% on Wednesday, its sharpest daily rise since August 19, with prices up over $250 this week from a one-year low of $3,869.85 hit on Friday. US gold futures for December delivery rose 1.5% to $4,132.90 per ounce. The US dollar hovered at its lowest level since September 30, making greenback-priced bullion more affordable for holders of other currencies, while the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was at a near-two-month low. “It’s not that at this point rate hike expectation has completely disappeared,” David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, said. “As we’ve seen the weaker energy prices, there’s an expectation that we will see some fears of inflation subside and the potential for a lesser need for rate hikes down the road.” Brent crude remained below $100 a barrel after tumbling nearly 9% in the previous session on hopes that strong Democratic gains in US elections could reduce the risk of further escalation in the Iran conflict. Traders currently see an 80% chance that the Federal Reserve will raise rates in December, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. Investors are also awaiting the US non-farm payrolls report due on Friday for further cues on the central bank’s trajectory. “The payrolls have been volatile of late, and gold could be vulnerable to a stronger-than-expected print, which would likely confirm an already highly expected December rate hike,” said independent metals trader Tai Wong.
On the day gold closed up $41.40 at $4102.50, and silver closed up $0.11 at $52.23.
On Friday (11/6/26) the price of gold tested overhead resistance around $4081.00 and underlying strength around $4037.00 so the bulls will go into the weekend on rising positive sentiment. But today’s action suggests that overhead resistance may be tougher than was believed when the bulls roared and gold closed higher $133.20 this past Wednesday. And I think there is now a much larger political aspect to the gold trade now that the Democrats control both the House and Senate. President Trump finds himself between a rock and hard place as even his own party wants him to get his house in order. You could make a reasonable case that with all this ruckus inflation will ease and the pressure for higher interest rates will dissipate. This is not fanciful thinking but then again, it is not a guarantee of any sort. And if the FOMC raises interest rates again this year I don’t see fresh records in the price of gold for the holidays.
Reuters (Anushree Ashish Murherjee) – Gold drops 1% as strong US payrolls boost dollar, yields – Gold prices fell 1% on Friday after stronger-than-expected US payrolls data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could keep interest rates higher for longer, boosting the dollar and Treasury yields. Spot gold fell 1% to $4,047.10 per ounce by 8:46 a.m. ET (1346 GMT). The metal hit a low of $4,033.29 earlier in the session. Spot gold was up 4.5% for the week, on track for its best week since late August. US gold futures for December delivery dropped 1.4% to $4,057.20. The US dollar rose 0.7% to its highest level since October 29, making dollar-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, while benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also climbed. “Gold gapped lower on a stellar employment report (that was) strong across the board but is trying to claw back higher. This is a litmus test for this week’s rally,” independent metals trader Tai Wong said. US nonfarm payrolls increased more than expected in October and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%, suggesting the labor market remained resilient and giving the Federal Reserve more scope to focus on inflation stemming from the Middle East conflict. Traders currently see a 74.8% chance that the Fed will raise rates in December, compared with 72.8% before the payrolls report, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. Higher interest rates raise the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion, making gold less attractive to investors. Brent crude was on track for a sharp weekly drop on expectations of a de-escalation in the US-Iran war after midterm election results, although persistent Middle East supply concerns continued to support prices. Two Federal Reserve officials on Thursday backed small, steady rate hikes to rein in above-target inflation. On the physical front, lower gold prices encouraged Indian retail buying ahead of the key Diwali festival. Gold had dropped to a one-year low of $3,869.85 an ounce on October 30. Among other metals, spot silver rose 0.3% to $51.92, platinum gained 0.5% to $1,524.03, while palladium fell 1.6% to $1,015. All three were poised for weekly gains.
On the day gold closed down $38.00 at $4064.50, and silver closed down $0.43 at $51.80.
Platinum closed up $13.80 at $1538.20, and palladium closed down $26.90 at $1014.10.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,051.45 to $4,088.51 resistance zone, with a sustained move through the upper boundary needed to invalidate the immediate bearish technical outlook and reopen the path toward higher resistance. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,021.95, with a deeper downside target at $3,991.58. First resistance is seen at $4,088.51 after the recovery above $4,051.45. First support is seen at $4,051.45 and then at $4,021.95. Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $53.107 to $54.617 resistance zone, with a sustained move through the upper boundary needed to improve the near-term technical outlook. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $50.515, with a deeper downside target at $49.013. First resistance is seen at $53.107 and then at $54.617. Next support is seen at $50.515 and then at $49.013.
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