Commentary for Friday, October 30, 2026 – Today gold closed down $132.00 at $3885.70, and silver closed down $3.09 at $49.10. What can only be called “mass liquidation” demolished bullish sentiment as gold tested support around $3900.00. Which sent traders to the sidelines wondering what is going on in this market. Insiders realize that gold cannot catch a break because of higher interest rates. Last Friday gold closed at $3991.10, and silver closed at $53.71. On the week gold was down $105.40, and silver was down $4.61.
Please note that FedEx is no longer asking for delivery signatures. They are scanning IDs. We have complained to FedEx, but they remain resolute. Scanned identification is safer, but if you have a problem with this decision, please make your feelings known to FedEx. The present delivery time for the USPS alternative is 2-3 weeks. Please note this new change – we can only ship heavy silver orders (over 200 ounces) to your home address – you can no longer use your P.O. box for heavy silver orders. If you are a regular buyer of heavy silver bullion, contact your representative and authorize address changes.
Should you decide to use our Delayed Delivery Program please talk with your service rep and understand how this program works. It is handy if you want to lock in the price “now” and insist on a new product – but is not for everyone. Just like us – you must pay upfront to “lock in” prices and you can’t “change” your mind. So, unless God has blessed you with patience, please ask your rep for other options and thank you for understanding.
On Monday (10/26/26) the price of gold tested overhead resistance around $4025.00 and underlying strength around $3990.00, so the bulls are not exactly getting out the champagne. It is a short term plus that the price of gold has rebounded above $4000.00 but this bit of happiness is likely short lived as insiders believe that interest rates will be raised twice before the holiday season. Still, we do not see much in the way of gold bullion selling as tension in the Middle East continues to support prices and safe haven demand. (Kitco) – The Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran situation remains a significant source of uncertainty in global energy markets, although renewed diplomatic activity helped ease immediate supply concerns Monday. Senior delegations from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey were expected in Tehran for talks aimed at preventing another escalation involving Iran, Israel and the United States. Iranian officials have indicated that Tehran is willing to resume negotiations under a previously established diplomatic framework, including a conditional reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for an end to the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports. However, Washington and Tehran remain divided over the terms of any agreement, and no confirmed breakthrough has emerged. Continuing Houthi attacks against Saudi Arabian infrastructure, threats to commercial shipping and the possibility of renewed military operations leave the region exposed to further disruption. Regional petroleum exports have recovered substantially through alternative shipping routes and infrastructure; security risks and transportation costs continue to sustain a substantial geopolitical premium in crude oil. Still, I am surprised we are not seeing more fireworks which support safe haven demand as gold prices are squeezed between rising oil and falling interest rates.
Kitco (Ernest Hoffman) – Gold prices squeezed between rising oil and falling yields, Fresnillo silver output declines in 2026 – Heraeus – Gold prices are being stymied by rising oil prices even as they gain support from falling real yields, while the world’s largest primary silver producer saw output slide over the first three quarters of 2026, according to precious metals analysts at Heraeus. In their latest update, the analysts noted that gold prices are trapped between rising oil prices and falling Treasury yields. “Brent crude has climbed back above $110/bbl following renewed Houthi attacks in Saudi Arabia, while Iran’s floating oil stocks, which had continued to supply Chinese refiners despite the US blockade, ran out in mid-October,” they noted. “Oil for delivery in a year’s time is trading around $89/bbl, suggesting the market sees a significant short-term risk premium along with disruption lasting into next year. For gold, elevated near-term oil prices continue to raise inflation risks and keep a December Fed rate hike firmly priced in, offsetting the traditional safe-haven support from geopolitical uncertainty.” The analysts said that while the decline in Treasury yields has counteracted some of the impacts of rising oil, it hasn’t been enough to boost gold prices. “The 10-year yield has retreated towards 5.0%, from around 5.35% earlier this month, as concerns over stretched AI valuations, heavy financing requirements and returns on investment have driven investors towards government bonds,” they wrote. “The inflation-protected (TIPS) real yield has also reduced from above 2.9%, down to nearly 2.6%.” “Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost of holding gold, but Treasuries are also competing directly for safe-haven flows at yields that remain historically high while the dollar remains elevated,” the analysts said. “The gold price has consequently slipped back towards $4,000/oz despite the bond rally. A sustained easing in oil prices alongside lower Treasury yields would provide a more supportive combination for gold, whereas cAnd Russia continued to sell off its gold reserves to mitigate the pressure on its federal budget. “The Central Bank of Russia sold approximately 6 tons in September, its 10th consecutive month of sales, taking its reserves to around 2,260 tons and their lowest level since 2019,” they noted. “Holdings have fallen by around 62 tons since December, already more than the net decline of around 50 tons in 1998, the year of Russia’s financial crisis.” “Between January and August, 170 tons of net central bank buying was reported, despite selling by Russia and Turkey, the analysts said. “Russia remains an exception to the broader trend of central-bank accumulation, with its need to mobilize reserve assets increasingly outweighing the incentive to hold gold.” Spot gold continued to trade not far from session highs just before the North American market open and last traded at $4,012.31 per ounce. Continued strength in Brent crude would keep the inflation and interest-rate headwinds in place.”
On the day gold closed up $31.20 at $4022.30, and silver closed up $0.40 at $54.11.
On Tuesday (10/27/26) the price of gold got off to a good start, testing overhead resistance around $4060.00 even as the Dollar Index moves to weekly highs (102.25) as gold finished the day nicely in the green. Consumer Confidence also rose to 91.7, and these figures suggest that consumer attitude is improving. Today’s latest jump to the upside happened despite continued worries over higher interest rates. There are too many crosscurrents to be certain about the logic behind this latest bullish move, but I suspect that rising tension and improving safe haven demand is driving this market. Volume across our trading desk is stalled as investors ponder the next FOMC decision related to interest rates. I remain ambivalent in the short term. Fresh record highs in gold may have to wait until next year, but liquidity is key so plan accordingly.
Reuters (Noel John) – Strong dollar, high yields drag on gold outlook, but central-bank demand lends support – Analysts cut their 2026 gold price forecast for a second straight quarter because of high Treasury yields, a strong US dollar and expectations that rates will stay high for longer, but still expect a recovery in 2027, a Reuters survey shows. The survey of 30 analysts and traders conducted over the past three weeks returned a median gold forecast of $4,495 per troy ounce for 2026, down from $4,509 estimated three months ago. The 2027 forecast is $4,650 compared to $4,610 in the previous poll. Gold surged to a record $5,595 an ounce in January before tumbling to around $4,000 now, as the Iran war drove oil prices and Treasury yields higher, strengthened the dollar and reduced the appeal of non-yielding bullion for investors. “We expect prices to consolidate and recover in coming months as market focus shifts to de-dollarization and currency debasement,” said Standard Chartered analyst Suki Cooper. CENTRAL BANKS, FISCAL CONCERNS LEND SUPPORT – Bullion should remain supported by robust central bank purchases and physical demand. “Absent a Black Swan (and here’s hoping there aren’t any more) prices are likely to be underpinned by steady improved physical demand from India and China,” said StoneX analyst Rhona O’Connell. Continuing purchases by central banks “are sending the markets a message about managing risk, which is more important than the physical tonnage,” she added. INDUSTRIAL HEADWINDS WEIGH ON SILVER – Analysts expect silver to average $66.75 per ounce in 2027, down from this year’s forecast of $70.30, but up from the current price of $53. Silver’s dual role as both a precious and industrial metal has left it more exposed than gold to expectations of higher-for-longer interest rates, with analysts citing weakening photovoltaic demand. Substitution in manufacturing is a negative, while investment sentiment is cautious, they added, following this year’s sharp price swings, including a record high of $121.60 in January. “With solar currently oversupplied and AI under pressure, if only from a sentiment standpoint, silver is likely to underperform gold,” O’Connell said. “Some fresh investor interest is creeping in, but the big reversal in ETFs this year leaves the market oversupplied.”
On the day gold closed up $36.50 at $4058.80, and silver closed up $0.18 at $54.29.
On Wednesday (10/28/26) the price of gold remained in the red, trading between $4026.00 and $4060.00, a bit bearish but the aftermarket today roared as gold tested overhead resistance around $4080.00. The Fed paused interest rate hikes today, maintaining an interest rate range around 4.00%, an expected move, and the reason gold moved higher. Pausing interest rates was obviously bullish news but I would not get carried away. If gold makes a reasonable effort to above the $4000.00 level, there is not much to worry about. But if it breaks to the downside, you could see bearish sentiment reestablish itself. The buying of gold bullion across our trading desk today was impressive. These fresh fireworks may bring $5000.00 gold back into focus.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Sits on Support Heading into Fed Meeting Results – Gold holds above $4,000 as falling real yields support a rebound, but a hawkish Fed surprise could threaten the bullish outlook below $3,950. Most of the media focus today will be the Federal Reserve decision, with lower real yields providing a supportive financial backdrop ahead of the announcement. The decision is scheduled for 2 p.m. Eastern, followed by a 2:30 p.m. press conference. CME’s closing price yesterday lists the December 2026 COMEX gold settlement price at $4,074.60, up $36.20. The price confirms a higher settlement, which has been the case most of the week. Par Yield – The Treasury’s 10-year par yield fell to 2.64% yesterday from 2.66% Monday. It was 2.88% on October 13. The chart below plots every observation over that interval, showing that the easing has included reversals rather than a straight decline. The lower inflation-adjusted government returns reduce one important opportunity cost of holding gold. An investor choosing a non-interest-bearing asset gives up less competing real income when those yields decline. This doesn’t necessarily create a fixed relationship. Both can move independently, but it is one factor to keep in the back of your mind. Inflation Backdrop – The inflation backdrop helps explain why communication by the Federal Reserve will matter so much today. September CPI, released on October 14, increased 0.6% month-over-month after seasonal adjustment and 3.7% over 12 months before adjustment. Core CPI rose 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually. The September PPI release, published on October 15, showed final demand prices up 1.3% monthly and 6.3% annually. The measure excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.5% for the month. These measures describe producer prices and aren’t necessarily passed on to consumers and are not necessarily passed through to the Federal Reserve’s preferred PCE inflation measure. For gold, the question will be whether or not inflation concerns changes expected policy and real returns. A message from the Federal Reserve emphasizing persistent price pressure could keep financial conditions somewhat restrictive, as it could have traders thinking that the Federal Reserve is going to tighten monetary policy. Positioning Is Another Useful Input for Pricing at the Moment – The latest CFTC futures snapshot as of October 20 records managed money gold longs of 120,970 contracts against shorts of 16,764. The calculated net long at that point is 104,206 contracts. The existing long exposure can amplify reactions when communication challenges the prevailing investment scenario. Advanced GDP – Thursday has the BEA advance third-quarter GDP and September personal income and outlays, including PCE inflation, scheduled for 8:30 a.m. Eastern. These will test whether growth and price pressures reinforce the policy message delivered today.
Currency conditions can add a separate problem. A firmer dollar can make dollar-priced bullion more expensive for buyers using other currencies, while a weaker dollar can ease that cost. The effect is somewhat conditional on local demand and investor priorities. For Wednesday, continued easing in real yields would reinforce the holding-cost argument for bullish behavior. A sustained reversal higher would weaken it, if accompanied by firmer expectations for restrictive policy by the Federal Reserve. Technical Setup – As things stand right now, the technical analysis for gold does look well supported, with the $4,000 level being an area that a lot of traders will be watching closely. A buy-the-dip mentality exists, but a breach below the $3,950 could send the bulls running. I see a certain amount of resistance just waiting at the $4,200 level.
On the day gold closed down $22.80 at $4036.00, and silver closed down $0.83 at $53.46.
On Thursday 10/29/26) – The price of gold drifted mildly lower in early trading but held a very tight trading range between $4020.00 and $4040.00. While not exactly a fireworks show, holding around $4000.00 in this interest rate environment is a bullish plus. Especially considering the FOMC is still considering another interest rate hike by the holiday season. Still the new Chairman of the Federal Reserve Kevin Warsh is patient. Not much fanfare, not too bullish or bearish and steady enough to calm the interest rate waters. He is “accumulating data” within a complex grouping of crosswinds. If inflation continues to cool between now and Christmas, the Fed may not raise interest rates again in December. But it is too soon to look for a bullish outcome and a dip below current support levels could have the bulls running for cover. The gold trade has become unstable and is not for the timid at heart. I would stand aside going into the weekend and see if bargain hunting is in the cards. Or the bears are still in control next week.
Reuters (Noel John) – Gold slides as higher US inflation reinforces Fed tightening bets – Gold dropped 1% on Thursday as data showing elevated US inflation reinforced expectations of a Federal Reserve interest rate hike later this year, reducing the appeal of the non-yielding metal. Spot gold was down 1% to $4,026.12 per ounce by 9:13 a.m. EDT. US gold futures for December delivery fell 0.3% to $4,037.60 per ounce. Bullion is on track for its second straight monthly decline. “A stubbornly high inflationary outlook that continues to run hotter than Fed targets is paving the way for thoughts that the Fed will raise rates at the December meeting. That’s … the main drag on the gold market right now, and today’s PCE report did nothing to allay that fear,” David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures, said. US inflation, as measured by the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, accelerated in September as consumers paid more for gasoline and other goods. The PCE climbed 0.5% last month after an unrevised 0.3% rise in August, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said. On Wednesday, the Fed kept rates unchanged, as expected, deferring changes to borrowing costs until after next week’s US midterm elections. Traders are pricing in about an 83% chance of a US rate hike in December, according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Higher interest rates increase the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold. “The next major focal point of the market is a continued watch on the energy market, as we understand that the energy market is a large portion of those inflationary concerns. So, any type of escalation or de-escalation in the Middle East that would result in higher or lower energy prices potentially has a significant effect on metals prices,” Meger added. Investors are also focusing on the November 3 US elections and their potential impact on fiscal policy and broader market sentiment. Elsewhere, European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde will step down from her role on February 7. The ECB kept interest rates unchanged but warned that inflation risks were on the rise from surging energy costs. Spot silver fell 2.7% to $52.54 per ounce, platinum dropped 3.7% to $1,486.47 and palladium slid 0.7% to $1,003.58. All three metals were headed for a second monthly decline.
On the day gold closed down $18.30 at $4017.70, and silver closed down $1.27 at $52.19.
On Friday (10/30/26) the price of gold fell out of bed, as bearish sentiment soared and gold tested support around $3900.00. As is usually the case volume across our trading desk also dropped like a rock as investors stand aside. The combination of higher interest rates, massive selling, and continued attacks in the Middle East point to even lower prices next week. It is amazing to me that rising tension over an uncertain Hormuz outcome does not seem to support safe haven buying. Whether this latest dip turns out to be a buying opportunity is uncertain.
FXEmpire (James Hyerczyk) – Mass Liquidation Puts $3,886–$3,708 in Play – Spot gold is being pressured by sellers for a second session on Friday. Bullion hit its lowest price since mid-July and is rapidly approaching price levels not seen since October 2025. The current catalysts include sustained anxieties surrounding inflation and its potential impact on interest rates and Fed policy. GDP and Inflation Strengthen the December Hike Case – This week, the primary focus has been on the Fed’s interest rate decision and policy statement. However, there were other reports and outside factors that had a direct influence on prices. On Thursday, U.S. GDP data came in stronger-than-expected on the same day that crude oil rose, renewing pressure on the Fed to raise rates in December. Thursday’s GDP and PCE reports painted a somewhat bearish outlook for gold prices and we’re still seeing some of the impact on Friday. GDP grew more than expected from July to September at the same time PCE inflation accelerated in September. The combination of these two reports raised expectations of a rate hike in December. The current target rate probabilities for the December 9 Fed meeting show a 25.9% chance of no rate hike and a 74.1% chance of a 25-basis point rate hike. Interest Rates, Not the Usual Bullish Narratives – Forget the safe-haven demand, there’s been a major war between the United States, Israel and Iran since late February and gold is down $1,340.51, or 25.4%, from its February 27 settlement at $5,278.51. Forget about central bank buying, the data is usually stale, and for all we know, they could be selling right now. Forget about the demise of the U.S. Dollar, it recently hit its highest level since April 2025. All these factors may be important at some point, but not at this time. The key factor is the direction of global interest rates, led by the Federal Reserve. The Fed held this week after a September rate hike and in about 40 days, it is expected to raise rates again. Meanwhile, several major central banks may have hit the pause button on rate hikes this week, but they all said they are still in a tightening cycle.
On the day gold closed down $132.00 at $3885.70, and silver closed down $3.09 at $49.10.
Platinum closed down $56.80 at $1438.00, and palladium closed down $16.00 at $984.60.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,015.00 to $4,039.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move above the upper boundary needed to ease the prevailing bearish technical pressure. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $3,975.00, with a deeper downside target at $3,943.00. First resistance is seen at $4,015.00 and then at $4,039.00. First support is seen at $3,975.00 and then at $3,943.00. Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $52.690 to $54.680 resistance zone, with a sustained recovery through that area needed to improve the near-term technical outlook. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $50.71, with a deeper downside target at $49.51. First resistance is seen at $52.69 and then at $54.68. Next support is seen at $50.71 and then at $49.51.
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