Commentary for Friday, October 23, 2026 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed down $51.70 at $3991.10, and silver closed down $1.05 at $53.71. Going into the weekend, gold cannot catch a break as its technical picture deteriorates. And investors across our trading desk sift through the latest Middle East news trying to figure out whether there is further downside to the price of gold. Or does the current pricing range offer opportunities to those considering the longer term? Even the pros are having a tough time calling this market. Adding to this cloudy outlook is the uncertainty created by the President’s comments which accuse Iran of making up fake strikes on ships to drive up oil prices. And Netanyahu’s comments that Israel is preparing “large-scale operation” in the West Bank. Last Friday gold closed at $4159.50, and silver closed at $57.00. On the week gold was down $168.40, and silver was down $3.29.
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On Monday (10/19/26) the price of gold opened in the green but soon lost traction, moving lower and tested support around $4140.00. So bullish sentiment is sliding, because the odds makers believe the Fed will leave interest rates unchanged this month. And because inflation is still a problem the FOMC may raise rates another quarter point by the holiday season. This “steady to higher interest rate scenario” will likely continue to discourage higher gold prices. At the same time the ongoing war between the United States and Iran is the proverbial loose cannon which underpins the price of gold. I can’t say that our daily walk in trade and internet investors are buying bullion with both hands. Our trading desk is quiet today. On the plus side there is an underlying tension, so there are plenty of customers sitting on the sidelines. I would also note that the longer gold remains above $4100.00 the more likely we will see a Christmas rally.
Reuters (Anushree Mukherjee and Vishak Mathew) – Gold steady ahead of Fed meeting, lower oil prices limit downside – Gold prices were little changed on Monday ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting next week, where policymakers are expected to hold interest rates, while lower oil prices limited downside pressure on bullion. Spot gold held steady at $4,163.65 per ounce by 9:03 a.m. EDT (1303 GMT). US gold futures for December delivery were unchanged at $4,183.10 per ounce. “It is not just about whether the Fed hikes next week or waits until December; the tone of its guidance will matter. A hawkish message could bring further short-term weakness for gold,” said Fawad Razaqzada, market analyst at Forex.com. Investors are also awaiting US Personal Consumption Expenditures data next week, the central bank’s preferred gauge of inflation. According to the CME’s FedWatch Tool traders see an 82.8% chance that the Fed will leave rates unchanged this month, while expectations for a December increase remain at 90%. The Fed has raised interest rates once this year, a quarter-point hike in September. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund expects the European Central Bank to likely raise interest rates by 25 basis points at least one more time this year to fight inflationary pressures. While gold is typically considered a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates reduce the appeal of the non-yielding asset. Oil prices slipped from a five-month high on Monday after US President Donald Trump waived sanctions and tariffs on Russia that may lead to more Russian fuel exports. The drop in oil prices eased some inflation concerns after strong US CPI and PPI readings last week, driven in part by a surge in gasoline costs. “In our view, key resistance remains at $4,235, while support continues to emerge below $4,100,” said Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank.
On the day gold closed down $20.50 at $4139.00, and silver closed down $0.03 at $56.97.
On Tuesday (10/20/26) gold moved into the red testing support around $4113.00 in the early trade but reversed direction moving into the green. But finally closed mildly in the red for the day. This back and forth pricing from a technical standpoint is not aggressive enough to make a bullish case for higher prices in the short term. But it is a small plus for bullish sentiment that the gold still finds support around $4100.00. I would not be an aggressive buyer of gold or silver bullion at these levels. But it might make sense to sell a small portion of your holdings, to make sure your cash liquidity remains intact. Investors should consider that another rate hike is already baked into this cake, which suggests that $5000.00 gold will remain on hold perhaps into 2027.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Tests Major Demand Zone: Can Prices Clear $4,260 After Defending $4,000? – Gold remains neutral between $4,000 support and $4,260 resistance as rebounding real Treasury yields complicate its recovery prospects. Gold – Gold’s immediate macroeconomic backdrop has shifted from last week’s falling real yields to a modest reversal. October 19 saw the Treasury’s daily curve put the 10-year inflation-protected real yield at 2.80%, up from 2.74% on October 16. It nevertheless remains below October 9’s 2.91%. That combination matters. Monday interrupted the easing in one important competing return but did not erase the earlier decline. For gold, a higher real government yield can increase the opportunity cost of holding an asset that pays no income. Monday’s move makes the financing backdrop less accommodating at the margin, but it does not prove that gold fell because of yields, nor does it establish a stable relationship that holds every particular session. Investment demand, changes in currency, and risk appetite movements can also outweigh the interest-rate mechanism. Nominal yields moved higher as well. The October 19 figures show a 2-year yield at 4.77% and the 10-year yield at 5.15%, compared with 4.74% and 5.09% last Friday. The simultaneous rise in nominal and real measures is more informative than the nominal move alone. It does caution against assuming any increase in market interest rates simply reflects greater compensation for inflation, which would have a different implication for gold itself. Inflation remains a material part of the background, but the relevant releases came out last week. This would have been the September CPI, which rose 0.6% on a seasonally adjusted monthly basis and 3.7% over 12 months before seasonal adjustment. Core CPI increased 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually. Gasoline’s 9.1% monthly increase accounted for more than half of the headline monthly advance. That concentration makes it useful to distinguish an energy-driven shock from uniform acceleration across consumer prices. September PPI, released on the 15th, added a separate warning about producer costs. Final-demand prices increased 1.3%, seasonally adjusted over the month, and 6.3% over 12 months on an unadjusted basis. Excluding food, energy, and trade services, prices rose 0.5% monthly. PPI measures prices received by domestic producers. It does not make for an alternative reading of household inflation. Gold implications run in two different directions. Persistent inflation could strengthen interest in preserving purchasing power, while an official response that remains restrictive from the Federal Reserve, with financing conditions rising, can raise the cost of owning gold. The question is how those forces interact, whether an inflation release is automatically positive for gold, sometimes it isn’t. Producer price pressure also need not pass immediately or completely into consumer prices. The Federal Reserve’s next scheduled interest-rate decision is October 27 and 28. This upcoming decision is still somewhat of an open question, but it is worth noting that fed funds futures are suggesting that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in December, not in October.
On the day gold closed down $16.60 at $4122.40, and silver closed up $0.74 at $57.71.
On Wednesday (10/21/26) the price of gold tested support around $4110.00 and overhead resistance around $4140.00, finishing the day only mildly in the green. But the aftermarket will have everyone scratching their heads, as it again sold off, testing support around $4109.00. This weird pricing pattern will have most carefully looking for fresh news from the FOMC relative to interest rate bias. Still Chief Warsh looks like a rock from my standpoint even as President Trump continues to push for lower interest rates. And until interest rates trend lower, the price of gold will struggle. Gold does find longer term support around $4100.00 but if this number does not hold there is no telling how volatile prices may become. Bullion sellers across our trading desk have disappeared. Now don’t get me wrong, I’m not bullish here because crosswinds are difficult to read. But with a stalemate between the US and Iran relative to the Middle East there does not figure to be much bullion selling. But this market is throwing up a red flag for now.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Tests a Bottom as 10-Year Real Yields Ease to 2.77% – Gold attempts to establish a bottom near a key demand zone as the U.S. 10-year real yield eases to 2.77%, although persistent inflation keeps the outlook uncertain. The latest financing signal for gold is modest easing in longer-term real yields. The Treasury 10-year par real yield declined to 2.77% yesterday from 2.80% the day before. It remains above the October 16 reading of 2.74% but below the 2.88% recorded on October 13. Tuesday, therefore, reversed part of Monday’s rebound without establishing a straight-line trend. For bullion, lower inflation-adjusted government returns can reduce the opportunity cost of holding an asset without any yield. Tuesday’s move is a slight improvement in that part of gold’s backdrop. Its size and short duration argue against declaring a massive victory here, but it is the beginning of what we want to see. Nominal Rates – Nominal rates also show why the phrase “yields fell” needs a little bit of qualification. The 10-year Treasury par yield declined to 5.12% from 5.15% on Monday, but the 2-year increased to 4.79% from 4.77%. The market did not experience uniform easing across maturities. That combination is consistent with different pressures on near-term policy-sensitive rates and longer-term financing conditions. The distinction between nominal yields, real yields, and published inflation is important here. A Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities real yield reflects the market pricing of an inflation-linked security. Subtracting last month’s CPI rate from a nominal yield would instead mix a backward-looking inflation measure with a forward-looking return. Housing and the Economy – A fresh growth-related release provides context. Census and HUD reported on October 20 that September housing starts were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.221 million, a point estimate 5.2% below revised August. The uncertainty interval around that monthly change was plus or minus 11.8 percentage points, so the estimated decline was not statistically distinguishable from zero. Housing permits were at a 1.4 million annual rate, down 0.2% monthly. For gold, the relevance is the tension between economic resilience and restrictive financing. Softer rate-sensitive activity can encourage expectations of eventual policy relief, but one noisy housing estimate is not going to be enough to establish some type of economy-wide downturn. It does not prove that the housing release drove Tuesday’s bond move. Inflation remains the competing constraint. September CPI, released on October 14, rose 0.6% month-over-month on a seasonally adjusted basis and 3.7% over 12 months before adjustment. Core CPI increased 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually. September final-demand PPI, released on October 15, increased 1.3% monthly and 6.3% annually before adjustment. These readings create two possible channels for gold. Concern about purchasing power can strengthen demand for protection at times, while a forceful monetary response can raise the return available on competing assets. Producer price increases do not necessarily need to completely pass into consumer inflation. Margins and demand will have an influence on that process. An inflation figure, therefore, cannot be translated mechanically into a bullish or bearish bullion forecast. Federal Reserve Meeting – The next scheduled Federal Reserve meeting is October 27 and 28. That decision remains ahead, and no outcome is assured here, although most of the market is looking at the Federal Reserve holding interest rates. December is still priced in at about an 80% chance of a 25-basis-point rate hike. Technical Analysis – From a technical analysis standpoint, it looks like gold is trying to find some type of bottom at the top of the overall demand range that we had seen in the middle of summer. As things stand right now, it looks like yields are essentially sideways, and if that remains the case, gold probably follows suit.
On the day gold closed up $8.10 at $4130.50, and silver closed down $0.29 at $57.42.
On Thursday 10/22/26) – Gold fell out of bed this morning, testing support around $4047.00, which is a severe loss considering that not long ago most insiders suggested that the long term $4100.00 support line should hold up. The reason gold may continue to slide is because traders expect interest rates to move even higher. This past year’s high in gold was $5600.00, its low was $3900.00. Which means that today’s close of around $4100.00 is in no man’s land. I say that not to be funny but really what is the difference between Chief Powell and Chief Warsh? They are both hawks who use higher interest rates to control inflation. But for now, an uncertain outcome has made this trade unstable. As seen in today’s serious drop in the price of gold. I would not be a big seller of bullion here because it may be now undervalued. But the proof of the pudding will be seen if sidelined cash begins to bargain hunt. If you are worried about the price of gold at this point, and are an early buyer, consider selling a small portion of your investment. Taking a profit may help you sleep better at night. But my bet is that we will see less selling if we approach yearly lows of $3900.00. The reason being here is that nothing much has changed in the geopolitical or monetary pressures which created $5000.00 gold in the first place.
(Kitco AM Report) – Gold, silver pressured despite lower yields as Hormuz attacks send crude higher – Spot gold and silver prices were sharply lower in early U.S. trading Thursday, as renewed attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and rising Middle East tensions pushed crude oil prices higher, reinforcing inflation concerns and expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening. Precious metals failed to benefit from lower Treasury yields and defensive demand as the prospect of persistently elevated interest rates continued to weigh on bullion. At the latest verified morning price reading, spot gold was near $4,086.90 an ounce, down $53.40, or 1.29%, while spot silver was near $55.790, down $2.070, or 3.57%.
On the day gold closed down $87.70 at $4042.80, and silver closed down $2.66 at $54.76.
On Friday (10/23/26) the price of gold held steady around $4026.00 in the early trade but soon took a dive into the red as paper traders tested support around $3982.00. So, the bulls ponder a deteriorating technical picture. And those looking for a bargain hunting bounce after yesterday’s collapse remain disappointed. Of course, the expectation of higher interest rates for a longer time is the reason the bulls are sidelined. And will likely remain that way until the FOMC sees solid data which points to lower inflation numbers. The argument that rising tensions in the Middle East is pushing the price of crude oil higher which ensures higher inflation in the longer term seems to be ignored. And what happened to the expected fresh safe haven demand as tension in the Middle East escalates? Some investors at this point are putting $5000.00 gold on the back burner but I believe this is a mistake. As of this morning US and Israeli officials are drawing up plans for a new wave of military strikes scheduled for November, shortly after the US midterm elections. And President Trump has hinted at further action, stating that the US has “knocked the hell out of them, and we may do it a little bit further”. So, the Middle East paradox continues to puzzle, and investors will on the short term “grin and bear it” for lack of a better term.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Tests $4,000 Demand Zone as Real Yields Keep Opportunity Cost Elevated – Gold tests the lower boundary of its $4,000–$4,200 demand zone as elevated real yields limit upside potential despite hopes for a short-term rebound. The backdrop for gold on Friday is a contest between protection against inflation and the return available from interest-bearing assets such as bonds. The data available to us does not provide a simple argument that higher inflation must mean higher gold. The policy response and the real yield investors can earn elsewhere remain central to that argument. Real Yields – The Federal Reserve’s October 22 H.15 release reported a 10-year inflation-indexed Treasury yield of 2.76% for October 21. It had been 2.80% on October 19. The corresponding nominal 10-year yield was 5.13%, while the 2-year nominal yield stood at 2.81%. The small retreat in real yield does offer some marginal relief to gold’s opportunity cost, but it does not establish that we have an easing trend. A positive real yield means that investors have an alternative that offers a return linked to purchasing power, whereas physical gold produces no income. It is important to separate the direction of yields from their level. A few basis points of relief can help sentiment without transforming the overall trend. On the other hand, gold can withstand elevated yields when buyers place greater value on diversification or protection against adverse conditions. Uncomfortable Inflation Is Still a Factor – The inflation backdrop remains uncomfortable, as the BLS reported on October 14 that September CPI rose 0.6% month-over-month and 3.7% year-over-year. Core CPI increased 0.3% on the month and 2.6% year-over-year. Gasoline rose 9.1% during September and accounted for more than half the headline monthly increase. For the gold market, this will create a bit of a competition. Energy-led inflation can increase interest in preserving purchasing power, but at the same time, persistent price pressures encourage tighter monetary policy, making cash and bonds a bit more competitive. The question will be whether inflation concerns rise faster than the expected policy response, or whether investors become more confident that policy moves will contain them. On September 16, the Federal Reserve raised its target range by a quarter percentage point to a range of 3.75% to 4.0%. The statement accompanying the decision described inflation as elevated, and emphasizing restoring price stability was a key takeaway. The next FOMC meeting is October 27 and 28, but the FedWatch tool suggests that traders do not believe that an interest rate hike is coming at this meeting. Gold needs more than an inflation headline to establish a convincing monetary tailwind. A sustained decline in real yields would be one major helper for gold prices. Another would be stronger demand for protection that outweighs the income that something like a bond offers. While the next meeting, more likely than not, does not have a rate hike attached to it, the statement will become crucial, as will the press conference afterwards. It will be about the messaging and not as much about the actual move. The strongest conclusion at the moment is that inflation concerns do remain relevant, but the interest rate hurdle has not completely disappeared. The recent real-yield decline is worth monitoring for continuation rather than treating it as a massive turning point. Technical Analysis – We did just touch the $4,000 area, the bottom of a larger demand zone between $4,000 and $4,200 that I have been watching for some time. If we were to break significantly below $4,000, that would be a shot across the bow for the bullish traders to deal with. However, a bounce from here does make a certain amount of sense, and a bit of consolidation heading into the weekend, perhaps even some bullish pressure, would make a certain amount of sense. However, establishing an uptrend at the moment seems a bit far-fetched.
On the day gold closed down $51.70 at $3991.10, and silver closed down $1.05 at $53.71.
Platinum closed down $13.30 at $1554.20, and palladium closed down $5.00 at $1046.60.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,075.00 to $4,080.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,200.00 and then $4,250.00. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below the $3,963.00 to $3,946.00 support zone, with deeper downside targets at $3,890.00 and then $3,500.00. First resistance is seen at $4,075.00 and then at $4,080.00. First support is seen at $3,963.00 and then at $3,946.00. Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $54.530 to $55.770 resistance zone, with a move above that area targeting $58.090 and then $60.000. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $53.46, with deeper downside targets at $52.41 and then $51.39. First resistance is seen at $54.53 and then at $55.77. Next support is seen at $53.46 and then at $52.41.
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