Commentary for Friday, October 16, 2026 (www.golddealer.com) – Today gold closed up $11.80 at $4159.50, and silver closed up $0.16 at $57.00. For now, it may be time to consider whether higher gold prices and higher interest rates can exist together over the longer term? There was a time I thought such an arrangement was not possible, but now I’m not so sure. Today’s sudden rise in the price of gold reinforces both bullish sentiment and points to fresh safe haven demand, but traders sold this rally and gold finished mildly in the green. So, I’m not ready to “bet the farm” on this news. But it should have the bulls smiling into the weekend considering that yesterday gold’s price also finished higher by $62.90. Last Friday gold closed at $4191.00, and silver closed at $60.67. On the week gold was down $31.50, and silver was up $3.67.
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On Monday (10/12/26) the domestic gold market and Golddealer.com were closed for a Federal Holiday. The Post Office and banks were also closed.
On Tuesday (10/13/26) gold tested overhead resistance around $4200.00 and short term support around $4152.00, finishing the day in the red after the holiday weekend. This presents the bulls with a bit of bearish sentiment considering that last Friday gold finished higher by almost $60.00, so the momentum trade has disappeared. It also appears that even higher prices are being capped as investors are considering another interest rate hike before Christmas. Still, the public seems to be content standing aside, waiting to see who blinks first relative to the ongoing geopolitical paradox in the Middle East. In my opinion the ongoing war between Iran and the US underpins safe haven demand and may provide the ideal spark needed for fresh highs in gold.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Move on Rates – Gold traders continue to pay close attention to yields in the United States and other major economies, as we are still worried about the idea of energy inflation globally. Higher yields continue to stifle gold markets. Technical Analysis – The gold market has been slightly positive during the trading session here on Tuesday, which makes a certain amount of sense because, quite frankly, rates dropping gives us a little bit of pressure relief. We’re in a demand zone, or just right on top of it, between $4,200 and $4,000, going back quite some distance in time. Therefore, it’s not a huge surprise to see that there’s at least some interest in this area. Lower Rates Are Starting to Help – Coupled with the lower rates, the positive momentum makes a certain amount of sense. Gold does look like it’s in an area that maybe, if it gets a little bit of help via lower rates, which would be a result of the situation in the Middle East calming down, we would have a little bit of a bounce here, maybe towards the 200-day EMA. We’ll just have to wait and see. That’s typically an area that a lot of people watch. The $4,400 level is also resistance above, so that could be an area of interest for certain traders. Underneath, if we were to break down below the $4,000 level, that would be a major change in attitude and something that would certainly catch my attention. This is a situation that I do not expect, but one I am aware of. Longer term, I do like gold. There is plenty of spending out there that could have people looking to run to gold for safety. All things being equal, this market is one that I like. Longer term, short term, though, I think we’re still at the mercy of the bond market and somewhat sideways.
On the day gold closed down $12.90 at $4152.90, and silver closed down $0.98 at $59.16.
On Wednesday (10/14/26) the gold bulls could not catch a break today as the price of gold tested daily lows around $4084.00 and finished seriously in the red for the day. The reason being is that a hot inflation reading reinforces the notion that a hawkish Fed will continue to favor higher interest rates, pressuring the price of gold lower. It is interesting that the promised “oil shock” scenario has been shelved. And so has safe haven demand, the result of the ongoing war between the US and Iran. For now, the higher interest rates are taking center stage, creating lower prices in gold and perhaps silver bullion. But some insiders believe $4000.00 gold will hold up, pending further changes in interest rates between now and Christmas.
Reuters (Pablo Sinha) – Gold drops over 1% as hot US inflation data boosts Fed hike bets – Gold fell over 1% on Wednesday, extending losses for a third straight session, as a stronger-than-expected inflation reading increased US Federal Reserve rate hike bets for this month.
Spot gold dropped 1.7% to $4,086.06 per ounce by 9:03 a.m. EDT (1303 GMT), its lowest since October 7. US gold futures for December delivery fell 1.6% to $4,108.60 per ounce. The US dollar index climbed 0.4%, making greenback-denominated gold more expensive for holders of other currencies, while 10-year US Treasury yields also rose. “With the CPI inflationary data coming in hotter than expected and continuing to run at the levels above Fed targets, at this point it portends that the Fed is more likely to raise interest rates,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. “As a result, we’ve seen the dollar rise and pressure added to the gold market. “The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% last month after climbing 0.4% in August, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Wednesday. Markets see about a 44% chance of a US rate hike this month, up from about 22% before the inflation data, and are pricing a 95% probability of an increase in December, according to CME’s FedWatch Tool. While gold is typically seen as a hedge against inflation, higher interest rates tend to diminish the appeal of non-yielding bullion. Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman said the central bank has time to wait and see how financial markets and the economy evolve after its September rate rise before deciding whether to take any more action. Oil prices rose on Wednesday after an attack on the headquarters of Saudi Arabia’s state-owned oil company, while Iranian officials told Reuters they were deploying new tactics to target ships, seeking to keep oil prices high and influence US midterm elections. “In the longer term, gold should again benefit from continued strong central-bank buying and renewed concerns over US debt and its rising interest burden,” said Julius Baer analyst Carsten Menke.
On the day gold closed down $68.10 at $4084.80, and silver closed down $3.61 at $55.55.
On Thursday 10/15/26) – (Kitco News Wire) Gold, silver rebound as Treasury yields tumble despite hot PPI – Spot gold and silver prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading Thursday, rebounding from Wednesday’s sharp losses as falling Treasury yields, a weaker U.S. dollar and renewed safe-haven demand outweighed another upside U.S. inflation surprise. A technology-led global equity selloff pushed investors toward government bonds and bullion, even as September producer prices rose much faster than expected. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,147.50 an ounce, up $43.00, or 1.05%, while spot silver was trading near $56.620, up $1.10, or 1.99%. Market positioning remains caught between persistent inflation and growing concerns about the sustainability of the AI-driven equity rally. September producer prices surged 1.3% on the month and 6.3% from a year earlier, the largest monthly advance since March 2022. Producer energy prices jumped 10.8%, including a 20.3% increase in gasoline. The report followed Wednesday’s stronger-than-expected CPI, which showed headline inflation rising 0.6% on the month and 3.7% annually. September retail sales increased 0.8%, exceeding forecasts, although sales excluding autos and gasoline rose just 0.2%. Initial jobless claims edged up to 199,000, reinforcing the picture of limited layoffs despite slower hiring. Fed funds pricing put the probability of an October rate hike near 29% following the morning data, leaving a pause as the base case but keeping additional tightening by December heavily priced. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell toward 5.08%, its lowest level in about three weeks, as selling in heavily indebted AI-linked technology companies fueled demand for Treasuries. The dollar index retreated toward 102.1 from Wednesday’s 18-month high. The next tests include Friday’s import and export prices, industrial production and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s appearance at the IMF annual meetings in Bangkok. The sharp yield decline provides immediate support for gold, but persistent producer inflation and resilient consumer spending leave the Fed’s tightening bias intact. he Strait of Hormuz and U.S.-Iran situation remains a significant source of geopolitical and energy-market risk, although crude prices retreated Thursday. Washington is considering easing sanctions on certain oil tankers to lower shipping costs, while signs of recovering Middle Eastern exports have reduced some immediate supply concerns. The security picture remains volatile. A container ship and a dry bulk carrier sank near the strait following separate projectile attacks, and Tehran has indicated it is intensifying strikes in response to the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports. Brent crude fell toward $104.39 a barrel, while WTI traded near $92.91. Lower crude prices offer some relief from inflation pressure, but shipping disruptions, elevated freight costs and the unresolved U.S.-Iran confrontation continue to support defensive demand for gold. Silver is benefiting from the precious metals rebound but remains more exposed to weakening industrial demand and broader risk-asset liquidation.
On the day gold closed up $62.90 at $4147.70, and silver closed up $1.29 at $56.84.
On Friday (10/16/26) the price of gold was again initially strong, testing overhead resistance around $4200.00, but it sold off, closing only mildly in the green. Still, I like the price of gold in the longer term because neither party has the sand to balance our budget. It would seem however that a test is in the making, the key number being $4200.00. If gold breaks above this point, we are off to the races. If it breaks below $4200.00 the downside could be a rough ride from the bullish standpoint. What makes this call especially tough is the potential fallout if a solution to the Iran war is not quickly put on the table. The latest rumor from the Middle East is that the US is considering deploying a GBU-43B Massive Ordnance Air Blast (MOAB) bomb against Iran’s underground nuclear facilities at Pickaxe Mountain. Iran does not now completely control the Strait of Hormuz. But it does influence proxy groups which launch dangerous regional strikes.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Tests $4,000-$4,200 Demand Zone as Treasury Yields Ease – Gold tests its $4,000–$4,200 demand zone as falling Treasury yields offer potential relief, while persistent inflation keeps the recovery uncertain. Gold vs Yields – Gold has a fundamental assessment with a notable contrast. Yesterday’s stronger PPI report was followed by the daily Treasury observation of lower nominal and real yields. This evidence supports a discussion of competing forces in the gold market, but it does not establish that PPI caused the yield decline. The U.S. Treasury’s 10-year constant maturity par yield fell to 2.78% on Thursday from 2.84% on Wednesday. These are daily estimates from the inflation-protected yield curve rather than live quotes, but they do give you an idea as to how the bond market is behaving. The interpretation that I take away from this is that the lower real yield potentially reduces the opportunity cost of holding gold. An investor comparing bullion with inflation-protected government debt now faces a slightly smaller quoted real return on that asset. The level remains positive, however, so the interest-income competition has eased rather than completely disappeared. Gold’s relationship with yields will vary at times, as liquidity and demand for protection can change. Nominal rates also declined. The 2-year Treasury par yield fell from 4.82% to the 4.77% level, and the 10-year fell from 5.19% to 5.10% between October 14 and October 15. The broad decline differs from the mixed maturity movement seen during the previous day. It is a change in the financing backdrop but does not necessarily identify a single cause. Inflation remains the counterweight. BLS published September PPI on Thursday, with final demand prices increasing 1.3% monthly after seasonal adjustment and 6.3% annually before adjustment. The measure excluding food, energy, and trade services rose 0.5% monthly and 5.0% annually. September readings are preliminary, and earlier months were revised. For gold, persistent producer-price pressure can support interest in purchasing-power protection while complicating expectations of monetary easing. These channels can coexist at the same time and have been seen from time to time in the markets. The question now is whether future inflation pushes real financing costs higher or whether demand for protection remains strong enough to outweigh them. The real-yield measure also needs to be distinguished from a simple subtraction of current CPI inflation from a nominal bond yield. The Treasury series comes from inflation-protected securities at a fixed maturity. This makes it a useful financial benchmark, but it is neither a forecast of gold’s return nor a complete measure of every investor’s expected purchasing-power gain. The Wednesday CPI release provides separate consumer-price evidence. September headline CPI increased 0.6% monthly, seasonally adjusted, and 3.7% annually unadjusted. Core CPI rose 0.3% monthly and 2.6% annually. Producer and consumer prices cover different baskets and transactions in the U.S. economy, so their rates are not added together, nor are they treated as interchangeable. The last Federal Reserve decision was the September 16, 25-basis-point increase in its target range to 3.75% to 4%. The statement also emphasized elevated inflation and restoring price stability. That existing decision is distinct from any expectation about the next meeting scheduled for October 27 and 28. As things stand right now, the Fed funds watch tool still believes that the Federal Reserve will be on hold for this month. Import prices are due today in New York, followed by industrial production. Neither has massive influence on the market, but they become part of the bigger puzzle for figuring out inflationary pressures. The more supportive combination would be a continued easing in real yields alongside evidence that inflation is contained without a sharp deterioration in economic activity. A renewed rise in real yields would challenge that interpretation. If inflation and activity send conflicting signals, gold may face competing protection and financing-cost influences. Technical Analysis – Gold is testing the top of a major demand zone that extends from $4,000 to $4,200. This is a market that remains very noisy and very choppy, but it is in an area that, if yields can ease a bit, could be enticing for bulls. Short-term pullbacks continue to look like short-term buying opportunities, but a breach below the $4,000 level would, in fact, have me thinking things might become more bearish.
On the day gold closed up $11.80 at $4159.50, and silver closed up $0.16 at $57.00.
Platinum closed up $12.60 at $1623.30, and palladium closed down $7.70 at $1113.30.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,201.00 to $4,217.40 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,230.51 and then $4,272.41. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,141.97, with deeper downside targets at $4,073.55 and then $4,066.54. First resistance is seen at $4,185.25 and then at $4,201.00. First support is seen at $4,148.26 and then at $4,141.97. Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $57.856 to $58.276 area, with a move above that zone targeting $59.370 and then $60.450. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $56.920, with deeper downside targets at $56.777 and then $56.340. First resistance is seen at $57.856 and then at $58.276. Next support is seen at $57.390 and then at $56.920.
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