Commentary for Friday, October 9, 2026 – Today gold closed up $59.20 at $4191.00, and silver closed up $1.61 at $60.67. Investors will walk into the long holiday weekend with bullish sentiment improved to some degree as inflation expectations rise and the price of gold continues to test the Demand Zone which extends from $4200.00 through $4000.00 according to Christopher Lewis (FXEmpire). I’m feeling better about steady to higher gold prices through Christmas even though traders are bracing for another interest rate hike this year, so you can call me overly optimistic. But interest rates are softening to some degree which may suggest steady to higher prices in gold. And as I have been saying the price of gold seems to be underpinned by the ongoing war between Iran and the United States. Investors are not selling much in the way of gold or silver bullion at the store. Last Friday gold closed at $4133.70, and silver closed at $59.98. On the week gold was up $57.30, and silver was up $0.69.
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On Monday (10/5/26) gold tested overhead resistance on the open around $4167.00 and then paper traders sold this rally as gold tested support around $4140.00. So, a choppy market, waiting for fresh information as gold today closed only mildly in the red. Gold is down 4% this year but some believe that safe haven demand is keeping prices above $4000.00. Good news for the bullion trade and not something I expected given the FOMC is bent on even higher interest rates this year if inflation does not continue to cool. It is somewhat surprising that today our phones were quiet, virtually no gold bullion sellers which suggests the public is happy with the price of gold given that the war between the US and Iran remains unsettled and unpredictable.
Reuters (Polina Dwvitt) – Gold retains key reserve status despite surging bond yields, central bankers say – Gold remains a strategic reserve asset as concerns over rising government debt and geopolitical instability boost its appeal as a haven from risk, two central bankers said on Monday, even after this year’s surge in bond yields. Gold prices typically retreat as yields rise, boosting the opportunity cost of holding non-interest bearing assets. This year however, while prices are indeed down around 4% as US Treasury yields have jumped to multi-decade peaks, they have remained relatively well-supported by central bank buying and safe-haven demand, keeping prices above $4,000, analysts say. “Gold is a safe haven asset, probably the safe haven asset, as proven by its performance over time and across a broad range of crises,” Sergio Nicoletti Altimari, deputy governor of the Bank of Italy, told the London Bullion Market Association’s annual conference in Sorrento, Italy. “This role is particularly relevant today in an environment of high geopolitical risk and concerns about economic fragmentation.” Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel said rising yields were increasing the relative attractiveness of bonds among reserve asset managers. However, the case for diversification into gold remains significant given continued geopolitical stress and the credit risk associated with high debt levels, he added. ITALIAN CENTRAL BANKER FLAGS STRUCTURAL SHIFT IN GOLD MARKET – While gold demand from central banks is expected to slow by 15% year-on-year to 720 metric tons in 2026, according to consultancy Metals Focus’s June forecast, it is slated to hold above pre-2022 levels. Altimari said the gold market had undergone a structural shift since 2022, driven by central-bank purchases in emerging economies. He said demand had also been supported by concerns over high public debt and fiscal expansion, weakening gold’s traditional inverse relationship with real bond yields. “These forces became particularly evident last year and early this year when the traditional relationship between gold and real yields weakened significantly,” he said. The gold market has experienced profound shifts in its demand structure and pricing framework in recent years; Shanghai Gold Exchange vice president Zeng Hui told the conference. In top gold consumer China, the market is increasingly being driven by investment demand and institutional investors, with bar-and-coin purchases surpassing jewelry consumption for the first time in 2025, he said.
On the day gold closed down $5.30 at $4128.40, and silver closed up $0.89 at $60.87.
On Tuesday (10/6/26) the price of gold seemed undecided, in that in the early trade prices moved lower, testing support around $4110.00. Then gold reversed direction and popped higher testing overhead resistance around $4180.00. Traders then sold this rally and gold drifted lower but closed nicely in the green. In my opinion interest rates remain the big player, pushing the price of gold higher in early trading as the Dollar Index drifted lower. But as Lewis points out there is a demand zone for gold between $4200.00 and $4000.00 going back multiple months. Likely created by the ongoing war between Iran and the United States. My bet at this point is that the price of gold will not likely create fresh new highs anytime soon. But the stage is set for $5000.00 gold as soon as interest rates trend lower. Higher gold prices are likely already baked into the cake because the price of crude oil will move higher as Middle East tension rises.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold at a Major Confluence – The markets continue to dance along a confluence early on Tuesday, as the interest rate markets continue to be a major driver of where we are going. At this point, the support/demand area is also in play. Technical Analysis – The gold market has shown itself to be a little bit hesitant to break down at what looks like a fairly significant uptrend line going back to the beginning of the year. Furthermore, we also have a demand zone between the $4,200 level and the $4,000 level going back multiple months. This area continues to be important for technical traders. Interest Rates Moving Markets – The question now is going to be about interest rates. So far during the day on Tuesday, they are starting to drift a bit lower, and that is the main thing for gold at the moment. Keep in mind, there are still concerns about energy inflation, and that will continue to be a major problem. Ultimately, this is a market that, over the longer term, I do like because of all of the debt and financing concerns in various countries around the world, France being the one in the headlines at the moment. It does make a certain amount of sense that people do like the idea of owning gold, as there is so much uncertainty out there at the moment. Rallies at this point in time, though, will probably face some headwinds, not only from the bond market and the concerns of energy, but also from the moving averages that are now crossing, with the 50-day EMA and the 200-day EMA indicators looking like a potential resistance barrier. Nonetheless, we are in an area of confluence, and typically that means we’ll have to make a longer-term decision fairly soon. With a little patience, the market should finally tell us where it is going soon. Silver Continues to Follow Rates on Tuesday – Silver continues to test the $60 region. This is an area that the market continues to see a lot of interest in, and so-called “market memory.” This area continues to be an area that people will be watching. Technical Analysis – The silver market is slightly positive after initially pulling back just a bit during the early part of the Tuesday session, as interest rates are starting to roll over. This is a main driver of the market at the moment, as energy inflation continues to be a major factor in the overall action we are seeing in markets everywhere. The $60 level continues to be a major support level. It is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, but it is also an area that, recently, about a month ago or so, had seen buyers jumping in to defend. With that being said, we will have to wait and see whether or not we continue to stay in the same consolidation area or if something breaks here. Watching Interest Rates Closely – This, for me at least, is all about interest rates and what they are doing. Interest rates rising typically work against silver, but we are starting to see a little bit of a rollover, so maybe that gives the opportunity for a bit of a reprieve here. Longer term, I like silver a lot. There is plenty of demand for silver as far as industrial use is concerned, and the resupply of silver stock is not very aggressive these days, as has been the case for some time now. Certainly, at one point or another, it seems like demand very well could overwhelm supply, and we saw a little preview of that about a year ago. Ultimately, I like the idea of buying dips from a longer-term standpoint, but in the short term, we have a lot of volatility ahead of us.
On the day gold closed up $30.80 at $4159.20, and silver closed up $0.30 at $61.17.
On Wednesday (10/7/26) given that there was a nice bounce to the upside yesterday, today’s pricing action in gold is a bit discouraging as prices dipped on the open and traders followed the negative momentum, testing support around $4066.00 before gold closed significantly in the red for the day. It did however get a reasonable bounce from daily lows, finishing the day above $4100.00, a plus for bullish sentiment. An interesting day considering China’s central bank bought 21 tons of gold in September, its largest purchase in 3 years. And the latest LGMA delegate survey claims that gold will hit $5000.00 and silver $97.00 in the next 12 months. As far as business across our trading desk, it is very quiet. The public is not buying or selling to any great degree, likely because the possibility of even higher interest rates is still on the table.
FXEmpire (Christpoher Lewis) – Gold Testing Major Trendline – Gold slips through a trend line. This is a market that continues to see a lot of noise, but at this point, the interest rates being so high is a major problem for the bulls here. Technical Analysis – The gold market has drifted a little bit lower during the trading session, and we are slipping through a major uptrend line that goes back to the beginning of the year. Whether or not that actually matters remains to be seen, but as things stand right now, it is a market that looks like it is testing significant support and a massive demand zone that extends from $4,200 down to the $4,000 level. Risk Appetite and Rates – I can give you a million reasons why gold might be strong right now. Risk appetite is suffering in some markets; there is a bit of a safe-haven play because of conflict, but energy inflation continues to work against it. Non-yielding assets really take it on the chin when rates are screaming higher, as they are right now in America. Nonetheless, I do think that there is a lot of action here between $4,000 and $4,200 to keep the market somewhat supported. We’ll just have to wait and see. We’ll also have to wait and see if this trend line from the beginning of the year holds by the end of the day. If it does not, then we can take that off of our charts. We start to think more horizontally and, of course, watch rates very closely. Rates will be the big tell here. If they start to drop, that could give gold a little bit of relief, and it could have buyers jumping back in to try to take advantage of at least a bounce. As things stand right now, though, it seems like we’re just stuck again. Silver Forecast (James Hyerczyk) – Silver Is Losing the Midpoint Again – Spot Silver (XAGUSD) is getting hit Wednesday with the dollar and long-term Treasury yields climbing back toward their highs. It opened near the top of its range, tried to hold the long-term 50% level early and couldn’t. Once the midpoint went, there wasn’t much underneath until last Friday’s low. This is the same rates trade that’s pressuring gold, but silver is taking the harder hit. The dollar is pushing higher again, the 10-year is back near its highest level since 2002 and the Fed minutes and a big Treasury auction are still ahead. At 13:03 GMT, spot silver is trading at $59.77, down $1.58 or -2.58%. It opened at $61.43, reached $61.50 and bottomed at $58.99. The Long End Is Running the Trade – The 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.350% early Wednesday and was sitting at 5.345%, just under Monday’s high, the highest since 2002. It’s up about 60 basis points since the end of July. That’s not an October rate-hike panic. The two-year is still well under last week’s high after the weak September payrolls report cooled the front end.
The selling is in long-dated paper. Inflation, government borrowing and the premium investors want for tying money up in long bonds are all still pushing yields up. Oil isn’t helping. Brent is back above $100 a barrel with a Gulf of Mexico storm and fresh attacks around Middle East energy infrastructure. That keeps feeding the inflation worry behind those yields. Wednesday’s $39 billion 10-year note auction is the immediate test of whether anybody wants this paper at these levels. Silver is already trading as if bond sellers are still in charge. The Dollar Is Back Near Its High – The U.S. Dollar Index was trading at 102.422, up 0.57% on the session, after buyers stepped in near 101.754 Tuesday. It’s a short trip back to Monday’s 102.535 high. The dollar is still well above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages. Tuesday’s dip didn’t break anything. Wednesday has the currency back in control. Silver got one shot at a recovery when the dollar backed off Tuesday. It didn’t keep it. Losing the midpoint Wednesday says the dollar’s rebound mattered more than Tuesday’s dip in rates. Fed Minutes Are the Next Risk – The Federal Reserve releases minutes from its September meeting at 18:00 GMT. That’s the meeting where officials raised rates 25 basis points, their first hike since 2023. October looks settled. FedWatch has 78.4% on a hold at the October 28 meeting against 21.6% for another quarter-point hike. December is where silver gets hurt. The market is pricing an 84.7% probability of at least one more rate increase by the December 9 meeting. Traders are combing the minutes for any sign officials are uneasy about how far long-term yields have run. Christopher Waller, Neel Kashkari and Alberto Musalem are scheduled to speak later Wednesday. Any of them can add to the rate-hike trade. Technical Analysis – Spot silver is trading sharply lower Wednesday after failing to hold the long-term 50% level at $60.835. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. The move through last Friday’s low at $59.69 signals a resumption of the downtrend. A trade through the main top at $67.55 will change the main trend to up. The minor trend is down. A trade through the minor top at $62.09 will turn the minor trend up. The first resistance is the short-term retracement zone at $61.04 to $62.98. Silver failed inside the lower half of this area early Wednesday. Taking out $62.09 would put the upper boundary at $62.98 in play, followed by the 50-day moving average at $64.21. The break below $59.69 leaves the swing bottoms at $56.56 and $54.78 as the next downside targets. The long-term value area remains $60.835 to $46.48. What to Watch – The 10-year auction and the Fed minutes are what silver has to get through Wednesday. The dollar is back near its high and the 10-year is back near its 2002 peak, so sellers aren’t waiting. The auction shows in real time what it costs to clear a 10-year sale with yields already at 2002 levels. That’s the price silver has been trading against since the end of July. Oil running hot doesn’t make that sale any easier. The dollar has a short walk back to Monday’s high. Silver’s been the weaker metal Wednesday, and it goes into the afternoon without a piece of the financial trade on its side. Spot silver lost $60.835 early Wednesday, then took out Friday’s $59.69 low on the way to $58.99. The bias is to the downside while the main trend is down, silver remains below the midpoint and the market trades under the 50-day moving average. The next swing bottom underneath is $56.56.
On the day gold closed down $45.40 at $4113.80, and silver closed down $1.27 at $59.90.
On Thursday 10/8/26) – Today bullish investors caught a small bid on concerns over the escalation in the US versus Iran War, but gold only managed to finish the day mildly in the green. Which may portend rising bearish sentiment, reacting to higher interest rates. Paper traders tested overhead resistance around $4137.00 and support around $4109.00 on the day. So, gold is holding above $4100.00 for now which is somewhat bullish. But to me gold looks like it is stalled, looking for a fresh data set. It is also worth considering that the gold market, Golddealer.com, and the post office will be closed for a federal holiday on Monday, October 12th. For the record a few large gold bullion buyers are stepping up to our plate. So perhaps the public is reacting to the bigger picture of rising debt as the creation of fiat currency continues.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Continues to Face Pressures – Markets continue to test a major support level at the moment, as rates are causing major problems for gold bulls. This market will remain under pressure as long as rates are so strong. Technical Analysis – The gold market was very noisy during the trading session on Thursday in the early hours. That being said, we are basically hanging around the same demand area between $4,200 and $4,000. This is an area that has been important to traders a couple of times in the past. Interest Rates Continue to Be the Culprit – Ultimately, this is a market that is watching interest rates continue to climb, and that is creating a little bit of downward pressure on gold. That being said, this is a market that is watching a lot of things at the same time, not least of which would be the conflict in the Middle East. We are in an area where technical analysts will be looking for some type of bounce, and we also have to keep in mind that this is a situation that could be watching European debt issues. We are starting to see some problems with French, Greek, and Italian debt now, so we will see whether or not that makes gold more desirable. This is a growing problem at the moment. It is worth noting that the higher yields so far, at least in the United States particularly, have made gold less attractive. We are in an area where technical analysts will be looking for a bounce, but we just have not seen it yet. The energy inflation situation continues to be a major driver of gold. So, if we could get relief in oil, it could lead to a knock-on effect. We will just have to wait and see. (James Hyerczyk) Silver Breaks Midpoint as Yields Climb – Point – Silver broke below last Friday’s $59.69 low, putting the $56.56 swing bottom in play while the daily trend remains down. Point – A Dollar Index near Monday’s high and 10-year yields above 5.30% kept silver under pressure despite gold’s small rebound. Point – The $22 billion 30-year Treasury auction tests bond demand as markets keep a Dec Fed rate hike firmly priced.
On the day gold closed up $18.00 at $4131.80, and silver closed down $0.84 at $59.06.
On Friday (10/9/26) the price of gold finished nicely in the green, reflecting a one week high on softer oil prices. So, while gold bullion is getting some breathing room I would stay away from this market going into the long 3 day weekend. Because I’m not very bullish on higher gold prices in the shorter term. We are still dealing with a hawkish FOMC. But you might consider selling a small portion of your holdings, creating a modest cash reserve. That being said, many see record highs in the price of gold over the longer term. Which makes sense when you consider the huge amount of fiat paper money created by Uncle Sam 24 hours a day, seven days a week.
Reuters (Pablo Sinna) – Gold hits one-week high on softer oil prices – Gold rose to a one-week high on Friday, as falling oil prices eased concerns around inflation and pressure on US Treasuries, while traders assessed the likelihood of further US Federal Reserve interest rate hikes. Spot gold rose 1.3% to $4,186.04 by 09:39 a.m. EDT (1339 GMT), heading for a weekly gain of about 1%. The metal fell to a two-month low on Wednesday as a stronger dollar and rising US Treasury yields weighed on the non-yielding metal. US gold futures for December delivery also added 1.3%, trading at $4,211.20 per ounce. “Bullion is finding some breathing room today as oil benchmarks and longer-term Treasury yields ease away from recent highs,” said Han Tan, chief market analyst at Bybit. Oil prices fell as worries over Middle East supply disruptions subsided after US President Donald Trump said the country would not attack Iran before the US midterm elections next month. US 10-year Treasury yields were off over two-decade highs hit on Wednesday. St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem said on Thursday the US central bank will need to hike rates again to bring inflation back to its 2% target. Traders are pricing in a 19% chance of a rate hike in October and an 84% probability of at least one 25-basis-point increase by December, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. Gold tends to lose its appeal compared to yield-bearing assets in a high interest-rate environment. “It is arguable that a further Fed hike is already priced in but so is the expectation for continued official sector net purchases,” said Rhona O’Connell, head of market analysis at Stone X. “Without any Black Swan event I find it hard to see gold breaking convincingly higher.” Meanwhile, gold demand in India was sluggish this week as prices rebounded, while trading in top consumer China was subdued during the holiday-truncated trading period. Among other metals, spot silver gained 2.4% to $60.80 per ounce. Platinum jumped 3.6% to $1,692.85 and palladium climbed 2.5% to $1,151.08, but both metals were headed for a weekly loss.
On the day gold closed up $59.20 at $4191.00, and silver closed up $1.61 at $60.67.
Platinum closed up $53.60 at $1679.30, and palladium closed up $25.60 at $1140.50.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,183.83 to $4,225.81 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,271.57 and then $4,311.17. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,183.83, with deeper downside targets at $4,141.86 and then $4,103.24. First resistance is seen at $4,225.81 and then at $4,271.57. First support is seen at $4,183.83 and then at $4,141.86. Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $61.72 to $63.06 area, with a move above that zone targeting $65.09 and then $72.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $59.96, with deeper downside targets at $58.94 and then $57.64. First resistance is seen at $61.720 and then at $63.060. Next support is seen at $59.960 and then at $58.940.
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