Commentary for Friday, October 2, 2026 – Today gold closed down $39.20 at $4133.70, and silver closed down $0.75 at $59.98. Investors may be experiencing a case of whiplash going into the weekend, as gold initially made session highs of $4220.00 and then collapsed, testing support around $4120.00 and finishing the day solidly in the red. Still, even the area of support is higher than $4000.00 so the technical guys will be watching for a rebound. If investors do not buy this weakness, perhaps believing that interest rates are not moving lower anytime soon. Or the safe haven demand created by the ongoing war between Iran and the United States begins to fade the price of gold figures to trend lower. Business at the store, however, is very quiet going into the weekend, so the average investor is not selling bullion to any great degree. Last Friday gold closed at $4286.20, and silver closed at $64.25. On the week gold was down $152.50, and silver was down $4.27.
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On Monday (9/28/26) gold had the bulls running for cover as prices tested underlying support approaching $4100.00. The problem being that firm to potentially higher interest rates will pressure the price of gold lower, and the FOMC suggests that higher rates are in the making unless inflation begins to cool between now and the holiday season. The technical guys are watching for the potential break below $4000.00 which seems counterintuitive considering inflation is moving higher as the price of gold moves lower. So, this market presents a problematic disconnect, underlined by the Hormuz stalemate. I believe the price of gold and silver will trend lower for the time being. And investors should expect continued volatility.
FXEmipire (Christopher Lewis) – Rising Rates Put $4,000 Support at Risk – Gold comes under heavy pressure as U.S. rates rise, with a trendline breakdown potentially exposing the psychologically important $4,000 support level. Technical Analysis – The gold market has broken down significantly during the early part of the trading session here on Monday as interest rates continue to climb in the United States, and the idea of energy shocks is still at the forefront of traders’ minds. With that being said, I think we have to look at this as a market that is likely to continue to move with the bond market. Unfortunately, the bond market continues to sell off based on the idea that inflation is going to be rather brutal in the United States and other places. The Federal Reserve is likely to remain very hawkish, and that does, in fact, work against the value of gold. This is a common reaction in the market and certainly hasn’t been avoided lately. The higher rates, lower gold prices continue. If we do break down below the trend line, it does open up the possibility of a move down to the $4,000 level, but we’ll just have to wait and see how that plays out. The $4,000 level, of course, is a large, round, psychologically significant figure. Anything below there would be pretty ugly. The $4,000 Level Is Extraordinarily Important – As I look at the gold chart, it does look like we are trying to roll over. The $4,000 level is extraordinarily important, but I do believe that longer term, gold will end up being bullish. We need to get this mess in the Middle East sorted out first. Then we can start to focus on all the profligate spending by governments around the world. Silver (XAG) Forecast: Sellers Test 50% Retracement of the All-Time High (James Hyerczyk) – Silver Reaches a Long-Term Value Zone as Sellers Test the 50% Level – Spot Silver (XAGUSD) is sitting near its low of the session shortly before the New York opening Monday. Sellers took it through the 50-day moving average and kept going, knocking out one support level after another before the selling stopped just short of the 50% retracement of the all-time high. I’m not ready to call a bottom. Sellers have been in charge since the failed rally at the main top, and whether buyers defend the 50% level is the question for the rest of the session and into Tuesday. At 13:25 GMT, Spot Silver is trading at $61.27, down $3.04 or -4.72%. It traded as low as $60.95. Technical Analysis – Spot Silver broke sharply lower Monday after failing to hold the 50-day moving average at $63.87. The move also took out the minor bottom at $62.31, signaling a resumption of the downtrend. The main trend is down according to the daily swing chart. A trade through $67.55 will change the main trend to up. Monday’s low at $60.95 is now the downside trigger. A trade through that price will put the 50% level at $60.84 to the test. The retracement zone at $62.98 to $61.04 was support. The market is trading below it, turning the zone into resistance. The 50-day moving average at $63.87 is controlling the short-term direction. The 200-day moving average at $73.15 is controlling the long-term direction. The Buyers Have a Price, but They Still Need to Take the Offers – Silver got within 11 cents of the 50% level of its all-time high Monday. To get there, it gave back more than half of the rally from the July bottom at $54.78 to the $71.56 high. The midpoint of that swing is $63.17, and silver went right through it on the way down. For long-term investors looking for value, this is the first clear price on the chart. The buying so far has been passive. Silver is holding a narrow range just above the low, and bids resting under $61.00 won’t turn the market by themselves. The sellers have to run out of offers first. The second rally matters more than the first, because that’s where traders find out whether silver can get back over the broken support levels and stay there. Until it does, the 50% level looks like one more stop on the way down. Silver Is Paying for Higher Oil Through the Rate Trade – Oil was up Monday after President Trump rejected Iran’s offer to end the conflict and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. For silver, that headline meant firmer inflation expectations and a Fed with more reason to hike. Traders are pricing a 70.3% chance of an October hike, and crude moving higher adds to it. Gold is under the same pressure. Silver fell harder because it had more to lose on the chart, giving up the 50-day moving average and several support levels in a short stretch. At these prices the risk-reward is getting better, and it may take fresh selling to push silver much lower. Monday’s trade is about the Fed, though. The value buyers can afford to wait for the data. Treasury Yields Set the Pace for Silver’s Slide – The 10-Year U.S. Treasury yield was back over 5.20% Monday, a week after its highest level since 2007, and silver has been trading lower as yields push up. The 30-year was near 5.53% and the two-year was moving toward 4.92%. None of that curve is moving in silver’s favor. As long as yields keep climbing, silver buyers are fighting the bond market as well as the sellers on the chart. The Dollar Index is holding above 101 Monday after its best month since June. Silver is trying to find support with both of those working against it at the same time. A short-covering bounce off the 50% level wouldn’t take much. Anything longer is probably going to need yields backing away from their highs or the dollar losing momentum. The Data Has to Break the Rate Trade for Silver to Recover – Silver buyers are heading into a week of jobs and inflation data with the 50% level already under pressure. The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is out Tuesday, ADP employment data and the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) reports come Wednesday, and the payrolls report on Friday is the bigger event. JOLTS and ADP come first and can shift the mood early, but payrolls is where the October odds face their biggest test. A hot PCE reading or firm payrolls number would add to the October hike odds, and that’s the fastest way for sellers to take out Monday’s low. What to Watch – The October hike odds are what silver has to get past this week, and Wednesday’s PCE reports are the first chance to move them. Buyers need soft data that pulls the 10-Year back from last week’s high and cools the dollar. Payrolls on Friday carries more weight, and silver needs to be holding the 50% level when that report hits. Crude is the other input this week. Any Iran headline that sends oil higher again adds to the rate pressure before the data even hits. Sellers have control while silver trades below $62.98 and the 50-day moving average at $63.87. The 50% level at $60.84 is the first place where buyers have a reason to show up, but a sustained move below it would weaken the long-term picture and expose lower support. A close back above $61.04 puts silver back inside the retracement zone. The next test for buyers is the broken minor bottom at $62.31, followed by $62.98. Monday’s low at $60.95 is the first downside trigger.
On the day gold closed down $150.80 at $4135.40, and silver closed down $3.03 at $61.22.
On Tuesday (9/29/26) the bulls got a small bounce to their step as the early morning trade moved from $4128.00 to $4175.00. The primary driver remains the relative direction of interest rates. If the FOMC follows through on another quarter point rate hike before the holiday season I can’t see the price of gold moving higher. On the other hand, if the Fed blinks, for any number of reasons and decides another interest rate hike this year is not prudent the price of gold and silver will regroup and begin the next leg of what I see as this still developing bull market. The problematic war between the United States and Iran is reason enough for investors to keep $5000.00 gold in mind. If the bullion market breaks to the upside anytime soon fresh new highs are expected by insiders. But this will be a bumpy ride, so keep your seatbelts fastened.
FXEmpire (Christopher Lewis) – Gold Price Forecast: Falling Rates Support Key Trend-Line Bounce – Gold attempts to rebound from a major trend line as U.S. rates ease, while renewed yield pressure could trigger a breakdown toward critical $4,000 support. Technical Analysis – The gold market continues to be very active, and with interest rates drifting a little lower during the early part of the trading session, it looks as if the trend line that has been in effect for quite some time, going back to the beginning of the year, is trying to hold. Whether or not it does, we will have to remain vigilant here to find out, but dropping interest rates in America will certainly help, and that is so far what is going on in the market. Whether or not this is a longer-term play remains to be seen as well. Interest Rates Evolution and Support Levels – I am a little skeptical about that at the moment, but if we see good news coming out of the Middle East, or some type of either peace or just acknowledgment that even more oil is flowing, then we have a situation where interest rates probably drop due to energy inflation being less of a concern, and that could push gold higher. That is the main problem with gold right now: we have rising rates, and non-yielding assets tend to suffer in that environment. If we do break down below this trend line, then the next very interesting place to me, of course, is $4,000. It is a large, round, psychologically significant figure that has been support previously and is good for headline traffic as well as options. I think at this point in time, we are starting to see a little bit of a recovery. Whether or not it has any lasting power to it could very well be determined by the bond market. Silver Price Forecast – Silver Rises as Rates Fall – Silver tests the key $60 support zone as U.S. rates begin to ease, potentially creating conditions for a bounce while longer-term demand remains supportive. Technical Analysis – Silver dropped to kick off Tuesday’s session, gapping lower as the market continues to see noise coming from the interest rate markets more than anything else. This is true with most markets at the moment, as we are looking to see where we are going there and extracting that information in the markets to price assets such as this one. Ultimately, this is a market that is very sensitive to interest rates rising, just as it is sensitive to interest rates falling. We are starting to see interest rates in the United States calm down a little bit, and that certainly helps silver’s case here to turn things around. A Big Figure I Am Watching – The $60 level is an area that I think a lot of people will be watching. The $60 level is a large, round, psychologically significant figure, and an area that a lot of people would watch to see if there is any reaction. It had previously been a consolidation area as well. With all of that being said, this is a market that I believe will perhaps at least offer the opportunity for a bounce. But if we can get some type of cooling of interest rates, then that opens up the possibility of a confluence that could send this market bouncing. Longer term, I do like silver. There is a major need for silver for the electrification of the economy, and, of course, production is not picking up. While longer term I do like silver, I do think at this point in time it is all about rates, and rates are moving on the latest war headlines.
On the day gold closed up $12.30 at $4147.70, and silver closed down $0.55 at $60.67.
On Wednesday (9/30/26) the price of gold moved to session highs on the open, approaching $4213.00 and helping bullish sentiment. But traders sold this rally as gold then tested recent support around $4169.00, finishing only mildly in the green for the day. I would not speculate on the chance of another rate hike before Christmas. But the unstable Middle East and the war between Iran and the U.S. fuels the notion that $5000.00 will soon be back on the table. In the meantime, across our trading desk, investors are not selling gold bullion. At the same time, they continue to sell silver bullion which limits its upside potential short term, in my mind.
Reuters (Anjana Anil) – Gold rises after cooler inflation data, but monthly decline looms – Gold prices extended gains after a softer-than-expected US inflation reading hurt the dollar and raised hopes that the Federal Reserve might not raise interest rates again as soon as October. Spot gold was up 0.7% at $4,209.71 per ounce as of 9:05 a.m. ET (1305 GMT). However, prices were down 5.4% in September so far. US gold futures gained 1.5% to $4,241.90. The Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index rose 0.3% last month after a downwardly revised 0.1% gain in July, the Commerce Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said on Wednesday. In the 12 months through August, PCE inflation advanced 2.6% after increasing by a downwardly revised 3.4% in July. Core PCE increased 3.0% year-on-year in August after a downwardly revised 3.0% advance in July. The dollar extended losses after the data, offering some support to bullion by making it cheaper for overseas buyers. “Core PCE a tenth below consensus, and a lower revision of last month’s figure, have boosted gold and may have put a short-term bottom at 4100, which was Monday’s low,” said independent metals trader Tai Wong. “The Fed is explicitly focused on inflation right now, and this should further reduce the likelihood of an October rate hike.” The US central bank tracks the PCE price measures for its 2% inflation target. The Fed this month raised interest rate to the 3.75%-4.00% and flagged further increases in the months ahead. While gold is traditionally considered an inflation hedge, it loses its appeal to yield-bearing assets in a high-interest-rate environment. New York Fed President Williams said that policymakers probably only need to deliver one more hike this year to get inflation back on track. He also said that he saw “no urgency” for further action. Financial markets now only see a 37% chance of a rate hike in October, down from about 45% before the PCE data, CME’s FedWatch Tool showed. Spot silver fell 0.5% to $61.15, platinum rose 0.4% to $1,711.77, and palladium eased 0.1% to $1,221.36. All three metals were poised for monthly declines.
On the day gold closed up $7.90 at $4155.60, and silver closed down $0.57 at $60.10.
On Thursday 10/1/26) – Today investors are faced with a bit of improvement in bullish sentiment as prices test overhead resistance at $4194.00, and gold finished in the green. It is important to note that insiders suggest a test of $4000.00 gold may still be in the cards. But frankly there are not many sellers of gold bullion at these levels across our trading desk. Which is surprising considering the Dollar Index has trended higher since last Friday. The unresolved war between the US and Iran supports safe haven demand as many believe that it is only a matter of time before $5000.00 gold is again on the table. And Trump’s latest comments support higher prices – “I don’t think you could ever have peace with Iran.” It’s amazing that he would admit this publicly because the comment is so hyperbolic that it slams the door closed which might lead to peaceful negotiations between the US and Tehran. Both countries have been on shaky political grounds for years and will remain so if Iran does not give up its nuclear ambitions.
Reuters (Noel John) – Gold rises as softer inflation data dents Fed rate-hike bets – Gold prices rose on Thursday as softer-than-expected US inflation data reduced bets for a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, while investors awaited key US jobs data due later this week. Spot gold rose 0.6% to $4,181.02 per ounce by 08:56 a.m. EDT (1256 GMT), while US gold futures for December delivery were up 0.6% at $4,211.20. Gold prices fell over 6% in September. Data on Wednesday showed US inflation rose less than expected in August, while price pressures were revised lower for the prior month. The data reduced the likelihood of an October rate hike, with markets now pricing in a 37% chance, down from 45% before the release and 69% a week ago. “It’s those lower rate hike expectations that have supported the precious metals markets,” said David Meger, director of metals trading at High Ridge Futures. Limiting further gains in bullion, 10-year US Treasury yields scaled their highest level in more than two decades, raising the opportunity cost of holding gold, while a stronger dollar made greenback-priced bullion more expensive for holders of other currencies. Investors now await Friday’s September US nonfarm payrolls report and remarks from Fed policymakers for clues on the monetary policy outlook. “The weaker risk appetite and lower Fed rate hike bets have assisted gold, but the short-term trend remains bearish. A retest of the $4,000 level remains on the cards, especially if tomorrow’s nonfarm payrolls report surprises on the upside,” Achilleas Georgolopoulos, senior analyst at XM Trading, said in a note. Meanwhile, HSBC cut its average gold price forecasts for 2026 and 2027 to $4,490/oz and $4,825/oz, respectively, saying gold could face further near-term pressure but was likely nearing a bottom. Additionally, HSBC expects central banks to resume buying in reaction to price declines, especially near or below $4,000. Among other metals, spot silver rose 1.3% to $61.21, platinum gained 1.1% to $1,723.99, while palladium dipped 0.7% to $1,195.80.
On the day gold closed up $17.30 at $4172.90, and silver closed up $0.63 at $60.73.
On Friday (10/2/26) the price of gold appeared unstable, moving to session highs of $4224.00 and then falling out of bed, testing support around $4144.00. The reason being is that gold is still dealing with a tough resistance zone above $4200.00. And today it is not doing such a good job. The jump in the price of gold in the early trade was likely spurred by a weakening dollar. The reason for the following selloff is not so easy to pinpoint. We may again be dealing with more rumors of even higher interest rates, or some kind of back door deal relative to the still dangerous Iran war. But at this point, investors do not seem too concerned, being patient and happy enough with prices to wait for fresh data next week. Ernest Hoffman (Kitco) “In a recent interview Bloomberg acknowledged that the multi-decade highs in bond yields have put pressure on gold prices, but the metal has actually held up surprisingly well. “The pullback in gold, I would actually argue, has been incredibly limited,” he said. “Gold markets have faced a strikingly different outlook for the Fed. US 10-year yields have rocketed north of 5%. Crude oil is trading north of $100 a barrel. And yet, gold prices still haven’t managed to print a new low since July. That’s a really strong, resilient price action in my book.”
On the day gold closed down $39.20 at $4133.70, and silver closed down $0.75 at $59.98.
Platinum closed down $22.30 at $1683.20, and palladium closed down $7.70 at $1161.10.
Jim Wycoff (Kitco) – Technically, spot gold bulls’ next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,203.65 to $4,225.28 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,248.24 and then $4,279.11. Bears’ next near-term downside price objective is a break below $4,149.83, with deeper downside targets at $4,117.63 and then $4,063.81. Spot silver bulls’ next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $61.737 to $62.327 area, with a move above that zone targeting $63.807 and then $65.090. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $60.258, with deeper downside targets at $59.368 and then $57.889. First resistance is seen at $61.737 and then at $62.327. Next support is seen at $60.258 and then at $59.368.
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